Within the wake of its brutal conflict in Ukraine, as of Sept. 5, Russia’s pure gasoline exports had fallen to 21 billion cubic meters, two-thirds decrease than final 12 months and 6 instances decrease than in 2021.
The EU has responded by upping its renewable vitality technique whereas in search of different sources to assist meet its pure gasoline calls for within the meantime. Azerbaijan (part of the previous Soviet Union) is a type of nations, signing a new deal for doubling gasoline exports to Europe by 2027.
Nevertheless, rising vitality imports from petro-states comparable to Azerbaijan is not going to hasten Europe’s renewable vitality transition; it should solely complicate it.
Azerbaijan shouldn’t be the primary petro-state the place undemocratic and aggressive governments are propped as a consequence of their oil and gasoline exports; Saudi Arabia and Iran are the best-known examples. However Azerbaijan’s state of affairs, mendacity on the middle of the Eurasian heartland, and its proximity to the conflict in Ukraine are distinctive. Worldwide help for nations comparable to Azerbaijan engaged in “petro-aggression” has implications for the broader international shift to renewable vitality, and it’s price asking what multinational firms can, and will, do in response.
Of pipelines and battle
If the world has rejected normalizing Russia’s aggression, why the double commonplace with Azerbaijan? As an American of Armenian descent, I’ve adopted the lengthy historical past of violence within the South Caucasus between Azerbaijan and Armenia, most just lately ensuing within the “Second Karabakh Battle” and hundreds of casualties on each side. As of September, Azerbaijan has forcibly eliminated and ethnically cleansed 100,000 Armenians from the area often known as Nagorno-Karabakh.
Shortly after President Ilhan Aliyev claimed victory in Karabakh, Turkey, which additionally has a historical past of genocide and violence in opposition to Armenia, Azerbaijan signed a brand new gasoline pipeline deal connecting the Turkish metropolis of Igdir with Nakchivan, a area managed by Azerbaijan, simply west of Karabakh and Armenia. The brand new pipeline will be part of different pipelines connecting the Caspian Sea oil and gasoline fields with the Mediterranean.
Anna Ohanyan, a professor of political science and worldwide relations at Stonehill School, wrote just lately in International Coverage that Azerbaijan seemingly seeks to obtain an extraterritorial hall that will enable it to step by step take management of Armenian land and circumvent geopolitical sanctions for ignoring internationally acknowledged borders.
False energy and petro-aggression
Azerbaijan’s rise as an vitality exporter is already giving it “false geopolitical energy.” The nation’s fossil sources are rapidly diminishing as its personal home calls for enhance, limiting its export provides even because it tries to execute offers with Europe and leverage them to forestall European nations from thwarting its ambitions in Armenia.
“It is extremely unlikely that Azerbaijan will be capable to meet its rising export calls for to the EU,” wrote analysts at The Economist Intelligence Unit. Azerbaijan’s oil and gasoline reserves may very well be depleted by 2030, in accordance with a report in Third World Quarterly. “Azerbaijan’s leverage is truthfully a puzzle to me and is vastly overestimated,” Ohanyan advised me. “Azerbaijan signed an settlement with Russia earlier than Russia invaded Ukraine for vitality cooperation; Azerbaijan is unable to satisfy its personal calls for and guarantees to Europe and consequently is mainly shopping for gasoline from Russia after which promoting it to Europe.”
Azeri-style belligerence is typically often known as petro-aggression: when a rustic’s fossil gas riches and supposed financial clout embolden it to be extra aggressive, focusing on neighboring states to increase its geopolitical energy. “On this state of affairs, … [Azerbaijan] shouldn’t be solely an authoritarian state, which is already a threat issue, however it’s a petro-state,” mentioned Ohanyan. “Petro-states behave utterly otherwise and they’re extra more likely to begin wars.”
Absolutely 50 p.c of Azerbaijan’s state price range and 90 p.c of its export income comes from oil and gasoline output, showcasing simply how intertwined fossil fuels are with the nation’s future.
The shift to renewables must speed up
Because the world shifts to extra renewable vitality, nations comparable to Azerbaijan or Russia, which closely depend on fossil gas exports for his or her geopolitical energy, will face new limits as demand for gasoline and oil decreases. Renewable vitality is a pressure operate for democracy and democratic practices because it decentralizes energy and privatizes financial authority, however solely when met with authorities help. “[President Aliyev] going to withstand the inexperienced transition as a result of if carried out, it will diversify Azerbaijan’s economic system and convey new gamers into it together with decentralizing energy, that are all issues President Aliyev has been working in opposition to,” mentioned Ohanyan.
Even authoritarians comparable to Aliyev can’t cease this transition: Azerbaijan just lately signed agreements with the Abu Dhabi Future Power Firm for photo voltaic and wind tasks totaling 1 GW, and the nation has a said objective to succeed in carbon neutrality by 2050.
Name to motion
The battle within the South Caucasus issues to giant multinational firms and their shift to a greener future, and they need to get entangled, mentioned Ohanyan: “I feel firms want to speculate and begin listening to how conflicts are resolved. Conflicts needs to be resolved by way of negotiation and firms want to talk a lot louder in opposition to the usage of pressure.”
Multinationals, she added, “are a beneficiary of a peaceable transition to a inexperienced economic system.” Somewhat than counting on fossil gas provides from petro-states, multinational firms can speed up their investments within the vitality transition and cut back the necessity for such fossil-fuel imports. Packages such because the REPowerEU, launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are an instance of promising motion; however for now, the concentrate on Russia has solely shifted fossil-fueled energy grabs elsewhere.
