IEA Sees A Ray Of Sunshine In The Gloom Of Planetary Collapse

Everybody is aware of the Earth is hotter, storms are stronger, droughts are longer, and persons are dying from extreme warmth. Everybody additionally is aware of that burning fossil fuels is the first motive why the Earth is getting hotter. Local weather grief is actual and rising amongst those that are paying consideration. However the IEA, whose mission is to trace who’s utilizing what vitality and the way a lot of it, stated this week the explosion of solar energy all over the world affords a glimmer of hope that we received’t immolate ourselves by overheating our little blue orb past the purpose the place people can survive. Yay!

Fatih Birol, the chief director of the IEA and a world famend vitality economist, stated this week that, whereas rather more must be achieved, the fast uptake of solar energy and electrical automobiles have been encouraging.

“Regardless of the size of the challenges, I really feel extra optimistic than I felt two years in the past. Photo voltaic photovoltaic installations and electrical car gross sales are completely in keeping with what we stated they need to be, to be on monitor to achieve web zero by 2050, and thus keep inside 1.5ºC. Clear vitality investments within the final two years have seen a staggering 40% enhance.”

Birol’s phrases have been broadly reported. The Guardian, Time, AP, ABC Information, Sky Information, and plenty of extra information retailers are trumpeting Birol’s announcement. And that’s an issue. Why? As a result of whereas a ray of sunshine is welcome information, there’s a sturdy chance that this pronouncement by the top of the IEA will give cowl to fossil gas firms and local weather change deniers to say, “See? Nothing to fret about. Every thing’s nice. Let’s simply proceed doing what we have now all the time achieved. Return to sleep, everybody.”

The IEA Web Zero Roadmap

Picture credit score: IEA

Birol’s remarks got here because the IEA launched its newest Web Zero Roadmap report, which inspires nations to convey the online zero plans ahead as a lot as doable. The primary Web Zero Roadmap was printed in 2021. So much has modified since then. Within the govt abstract, the IEA report says,

“The case for remodeling the worldwide vitality system in keeping with the 1.5 °C purpose has by no means been stronger. August 2023 was the most popular on file by a big margin, and the most popular month ever after July 2023. The impacts of local weather change are more and more frequent and extreme, and scientific warnings concerning the risks of the present pathway have develop into stronger than ever.

“International carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the vitality sector reached a brand new file excessive of 37 billion tonnes (Gt) in 2022, 1% above their pre-pandemic stage, however are set to peak this decade. The velocity of the roll-out of key clear vitality applied sciences implies that the IEA now tasks that demand for coal, oil and pure fuel will all peak this decade even with none new local weather insurance policies. That is encouraging, however not practically sufficient for the 1.5 °C purpose.”

IEA Calls For Tripling Renewable Vitality

The report requires tripling the quantity of renewable vitality obtainable on this planet by 2030. It additionally requires reducing methane emissions by 75%, one thing that ought to pretty straightforward to attain, for the reason that value of methane fuel has elevated to the purpose the place it’s cheaper for firms to plug their leaks and promote it for further income somewhat than letting it escape unimpeded into the environment.

It’s laughable that the vaunted capitalist mannequin encourages firms to waste their most treasured sources as a result of there isn’t a financial penalty for polluting the setting, however that’s the system we have now. Most of the objectives the IEA is selling could possibly be extra simply achieved if such wastefulness was penalized somewhat than ignored.

Birol went on to say, “An important problem [to limiting temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels] is the dearth of worldwide cooperation. COP 28 is a vital juncture, and may ship a powerful sign to vitality markets that governments are taking the local weather significantly. They need to transfer to cut back the consumption of unabated fossil fuels. To cut back fossil gas emissions, we have to scale back demand for fossil fuels. It is a golden situation, if we’re to achieve our local weather objectives. To cut back fossil gas emissions, we have to scale back demand for fossil fuels. It is a golden situation, if we’re to achieve our local weather objectives.”

Greenhouse Gasoline Emissions Are Not Falling

Birol is troubled by the truth that greenhouse fuel emissions, that are principally a results of burning coal, methane fuel, and fuels derived from oil, are remaining fixed as a substitute of declining. The truth is, they reached a brand new file of 37 gigatons final yr. So simply how a lot is that? Based on NASA, one gigaton is the same as one billion metric tons, 2.2 trillion kilos, or 10,000 absolutely loaded U.S. plane carriers.

37 gigatons, subsequently, is the same as 370,000 plane carriers. We are able to’t proceed placing that a lot junk into the environment and proceed to outlive as a species. That must be intuitively apparent to probably the most informal observer.

“As a substitute of beginning to fall as envisaged in our 2021 report, demand for fossil gas has elevated,” the IEA report says, largely due to Russia’s felony invasion of Ukraine and continued development in investments in fossil gas extraction and manufacturing,

“The actions we have to take now are more and more large, and there’s no slack left within the plan,” Dave Jones, an vitality analyst at local weather assume tank Ember, informed Time. “It’s now within the arms of governments to ship.” He identified that the time to start out delivering on these objectives is on the COP 28 convention in Dubai that may happen in November and December of this yr.

COP 28 In Dubai

The truth that COP 28 is occurring in Dubai and shall be led by Sultan Al Jaber, who’s head of the UAE oil business, has many individuals involved. In an interview with The Guardian earlier this yr, he was candid concerning the convention and his position.

“Phasing down fossil fuels is inevitable and it’s important — it’s going to occur. What I’m making an attempt to say is you may’t unplug the world from the present vitality system earlier than you construct the brand new vitality system. It’s a transition — transitions don’t occur in a single day, transition takes time.

“After we signed as much as the internet hosting of COP 28, we knew precisely what we have been signing as much as. I don’t assume there has ever been a rustic that has hosted the COP that didn’t get the sort of stress or warmth from activists and media, in order that’s a part of the sport. The scrutiny generally additionally makes us dig deeper into points, perceive higher, analyse extra to attract higher conclusions. By no means have I stated that I’ve all of the options, or I’ve all of the solutions.”

That appears pretty cheap and rational, however detractors are involved over semantics. Al Jaber talks of phasing down fossil fuels. They wish to discuss phasing out fossil fuels. It’s a small however necessary distinction. It could be a tragedy if the destiny of humanity is determined by such linguistic niceties.