Analysis agency EUPD Analysis says that the European Union’s (EU) photo voltaic PV module extra stock reached 47.2 GW in 2022 and should hit 40 GW in 2023. In a brand new report supplied to pv journal, the corporate forecasts the EU could set up 60 GW of latest PV capability this yr with Chinese language photo voltaic module imports hitting about 100 GW.
Germany-based market analysis firm EUPD Analysis forecasts that roughly 65 GW of unsold photo voltaic panels will probably be sitting in EU warehouses on the finish of 2023.
The corporate supplied their estimates to pv journal in an try to quantify the hotly debated projected EU photo voltaic module stockpile.
Report authors Markus Hoehner, EUPD CEO, and Ali Arfa, EUPD senior information supervisor, mentioned within the report that the EU put in roughly 40 GW of latest PV methods in 2022 and China imported 87 GW value of photo voltaic modules. The EU’s newly put in PV capability will hit 60 GW by the tip of the yr, they mentioned within the report, and Chinese language panel imports will climb to 100 GW.
Because of this the EU’s photo voltaic module stock for 2022 peaked at 47.2 GW and will probably be diminished to 40 GW by the tip of the yr, in response to Hoehner and Arfa.
“Even by taking the estimation of 100 GW of Chinese language exports to the EU-27 by the tip of 2023 and assuming 25% of the surplus stock (87.2 GW) will probably be the conventional warehouse circulation (round 22 GW), we’re coping with roughly 65 GW of photo voltaic PV module extra stock for 2023,” they mentioned.
The feedback comply with Norwegian consultancy agency Rystad Vitality claiming there have been 80 GW of PV modules stockpiled in EU warehouses on the finish of August 2023, which is double their 40 GW estimation for the tip of September 2023.
Excessive-profile photo voltaic skilled – and pv journal founder – Karl-Heinz Remmers weighed in on the dialogue and refuted the 80 GW determine. He mentioned there was a “regular stock” of round 8 GW surplus modules in warehouses at the moment, and the EU had put in 46 GW of photo voltaic on the finish of 2022.
The EUPD authors mentioned there had been a “miscalculation” in Remmers’ assertion of 46 GW of PV put in and in response to their evaluation the determine was 40 GW.
Remmers additionally primarily based his declare of an estimated 78 GW of Chinese language PV exported to the EU by August on figures supplied by the London-based assume tank, Ember. These figures ought to have been handled with “warning,” Hoehner and Arfa mentioned.
The duo mentioned that in response to their calculations primarily based on “a number of information factors together with module export weights” China exported round 66 GW of photo voltaic panels to the EU on the finish of August. This “clearly reduces the priority for oversupply,” they mentioned.
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