There’s an inevitability to the stumbling and flailing journey of hydrogen for transportation. Each effort follows the identical steps, merely changing the solid and setting because the play unfolds. There are conmen, hucksters, marks and dupes concerned. A lot cash, time and expertise is wasted alongside the best way. Tune in as we discover the Odyssey of the Hydrogen Fleet, and have a look at some native performances which are underway or have already closed the curtains.
Act 1: Because the curtain rises, we see a chunky, getting old lobbyist, oil in his hair and the manly cologne Eau de Hydrocarbon wafting in a cloud earlier than him. He’s wining. He’s eating. He’s spreading presents and favors round. He’s flattering. He’s mendacity. A refrain of hydrogen followers sing discordantly however approvingly.
Act 2: He leaves a slippery path behind him. Enter the credulous governmental apparatchik, stage left. His gormless face exposes his want to do the best factor, together with the entire lack of potential to know what that is likely to be. He slides on the slippery path into the arms of the lobbyist. They do a ribald and clumsy tango, and the apparatchik is pushed, pulled, prodded, cajoled and spun madly till he believes that hydrogen should be the transportation gasoline of the longer term. The refrain of hydrogen followers’ off key voices develop louder.
The lobbyist exits, stage left, his work on behalf of his hidden employers carried out, off to a different stage in one other place, however the odor of his cologne lingers, as does the slimy path on the stage. The apparatchik pulls a twine and an enormous sack full of cash descends from the ceiling, stage proper. The refrain’ voices are suffused with avarice and approval.
Act 3: Enter a fleet proprietor and operator, stage proper, lured by the scent of cash wafting from the immense bag sitting on the stage. Underfed and his garments threadbare, his fingers and eyes present the onerous work and dedication he’s put into working an environment friendly transit or transportation system. However his eyes solely stand up from his toes so far as the cash. He seems neither left nor proper, nor out on the viewers who’re shouting “It’s a entice! Don’t be a sucker!” The apparatchik too is entranced by the funding he has unlocked and the great he believes he’ll do, and may’t tear his eyes off the money. The refrain makes an attempt to overwhelm the viewers with offended and inane cries.
A sequence of photos of large fleets of electrified trains, battery electrical buses and Tesla Semis flash on the again wall of the stage however their eyes are just for the cash in entrance of them. One other sequence of photos of rusting hulks of hydrogen fueled buses and vans flash on the again wall, but neither the fleet proprietor or apparatchik go searching.
The 2 tug the bag to middle stage, be a part of fingers and dance a clumsy gavotte round it, slipping on the remaining slick of oil on the stage. A flat on the proper of the stage rotates to indicate a posh hydrogen tank system with compressors and warmth sinks and pumps and in entrance of it a modern car designed by somebody who had clearly by no means labored in transportation. They take bundles of cash from the sack and hurl them on the flat. The refrain of hydrogen followers exult singing hydrogen hosannas.
The curtain falls. Intermission. No smoking within the foyer please. Particularly close to the hydrogen dispenser.
Act 4: The curtain rises. The bag is close to empty. The pile of cash in entrance of the flat displaying the hydrogen facility and car is gone. In entrance of it, his garments much more threadbare, seemingly even much less poorly fed stands the fleet proprietor, fingers prolonged, his eyes, as at all times, on the sack of cash, depleted as it’s. The refrain is silent.
The apparatchik is nowhere to be seen. In his place is a extra clever and wiser member of the federal government. His face is sober. He seems into the bag and sighs vastly. He seems on the outstretched fingers of the fleet operator and shakes his head. He pulls a twine. The sack, a lot lighter, disappears upwards and out of sight. The refrain stays silent.
Act 5: The fleet proprietor is forlorn. Lastly his eyes stand up from the bottom. The identical photos of huge and profitable electrified fleets and rusting junkyards filled with hydrogen autos flash on the again wall, however now he’s taking a look at them. He’s clearly struggling to know. He shakes his head, he rubs his eyes, he gnashes his enamel.
He strides backwards and forwards. He pulls a number of cash and a few small payments out of his pockets and hurls them on the flat with the hydrogen facility and car, however they disappear, swallowed by the insatiable gullet of the system with out a hint. Nonetheless nothing from the refrain of hydrogen followers.
Act 6: He sighs. Walks over to the flat and heaves it round. The flat, rotated, exhibits the identical hydrogen facility and car, however deserted, rusting and with weeds rising round them. He stands mournfully in entrance of it, then shrugs off his funk and squares his shoulders. He nonetheless has an operation to run.
He turns, walks steadily to stage left and pivots the flat there. A easy picture of electrical traces working right into a depot and smart electrical buses is on the again. He raises his hand, touches the picture. A clear techno beat sampled from working transportation methods arises. The refrain of hydrogen followers is notably silent.
Curtain shut. Applause.
I want this have been merely a foolish little story to amuse you within the studying of it, and me within the writing. But it surely’s taking part in out all around the western world, and has been for years. New performances of it are beginning in cities and states close to you as you learn.
The sample by no means modifications. The fleet homeowners by no means look as much as see how this performed out elsewhere. The do-gooder apparatchiks by no means trouble to have interaction their greater mind features, use spreadsheets with something approaching rigor or ask what has occurred to different hydrogen applications. The fleet homeowners by no means search for from their little patches of street and understand that their circumstances are precisely the identical as everyone else’s. I’d use a Matrix analogy however the red-pillers have ruined that one.
Listed here are some examples of this taking part in out. Let’s begin within the nation facet of France, within the commune of Pau. It’s a nice place of rolling hills with about 70,000 inhabitants. The federal government offered scads of money, €9 of the €15 million for the scheme with its twelve buses. Be aware that it’s greater than 1,000,000 per bus, about thrice the price of a Yutong electrical bus. The commune’s transit agency purchased hydrogen buses and pumps. They managed to supply hydrogen that was 80% inexperienced. That they had an extremely troublesome time preserving the complicated hydrogen drive trains working. Then the federal government stopped paying for the hydrogen. The commune ditched the buses and pivoted to electrical buses.
Let’s head over to Germany, to Decrease Saxony. The native gentle rail operator, LVNG, acquired €93 million from the federal government to purchase 14 hydrogen trains which went into operation in 2022. They will’t afford to maintain them working with out plenty of governmental cash, so a yr later, they’ve made it clear that they aren’t shopping for any extra and will probably be shopping for solely electrical trains any longer. After all, they might have seemed on the close by state of Baden-Württemberg which firstly of 2022 made it clear that hydrogen trains have been thrice dearer that grid-tied and battery trains. However no, wanting up and asking consultants isn’t what many of those parochial fleet operators do.
Subsequent, a visit subsequent door to Austria. Ikea has simply entered Act 3, receiving €4.8 million to buy a mere 5 mid-sized supply vans as a result of their provider makes crappy battery electrical vans with insufficient vary in a rustic of with 22,000 public electrical car chargers and solely seven hydrogen refueling stations. Evaluate that nearly 1,000,000 euros with the comparable vary and cargo BrightDrop ZEVO 600’s MSRP of $85,000, properly below a tenth. I predict that the drivers will love driving principally between the broadly unfold refueling stations and delivering nearly no parcels to cranky prospects whereas persevering with to receives a commission. For a yr or maybe two. Then Ikea will understand that Quantron makes horrible electrical vans and drive them to enhance or discover a provider like BrightDrop that’s technically competent with actual supply vans.
This isn’t only a European factor, after all. Subsequent let’s go have a look at India. It’s an enchanting case examine which made the hydrogen refrain chant madrigals of pleasure very badly. The nation purchased some hydrogen locomotives. For a tiny subset of their tracks that have been used sometimes for tourism on very outdated routes by way of a scenic space. In the meantime, the nation has electrified over 85% of their heavy rail and is heading for 100% by 2025. I predict the tiny vacationer trains will probably be switched into an unused sidetrack inside a few years of first hitting the rails, theoretically in 2024, changed with battery electrical trains.
However for the complete blown Las Vegas-scale megaproduction model of this present, we have now to take a look at California. A few a long time in the past, battery electrical autos actually weren’t a factor however the hydrogen financial system was a large hype bubble. As a reminder, Plug Energy, Ballard and FuelCell Vitality all had their large inventory overvaluations in 2000. Rifkin’s tome of nonsense, The Hydrogen Economic system, got here out in 2002. Plenty of in any other case clever folks thought hydrogen for transportation and a number of different issues it’s ill-suited for was the one choice.
The hype round hydrogen for power was greater then, however the wasted cash, regulatory time and heavy lobbying by the fossil gasoline trade was so much lighter than it’s now.
Quick forwarding, hydrogen as an alternative of batteries is like nuclear power as an alternative of wind and solar energy. They’re each concepts that made some sense within the early 2000s within the absence of clearly higher, cheaper and utterly match for objective options. They’re each applied sciences that the march of progress has not been type to. They’re each applied sciences the place there was a worldwide market bakeoff, and so they have have misplaced badly.
However that doesn’t imply that there isn’t a legacy left behind. Within the case of nuclear power, it’s folks like Michael Shellenberger, a person whose dedication to nuclear power is so absolute that he’s turn out to be a local weather change denier and anti-renewables campaigner as a result of renewables are so clearly a greater wedge in opposition to world warming.
He made his profession in California across the similar time as hydrogen for transportation sunk its hooks into the state deeply. Generally it’s higher to be a follower than a frontrunner, and whereas California’s coronary heart was in the best place, it’s head was caught in a spot devoid of oxygen.
So now California is the one state within the USA with hydrogen refueling stations, simply as British Columbia, one other bubble of hydrogen for power leftovers, has 5 of the six hydrogen stations in that nation. Comparable legacy drawback.
And California retains throwing cash at hydrogen fleets, pouring good cash after silly cash in an endless stream that makes lots of people within the state suppose that there should be one thing to this nonsense. Being Individuals, after all, they by no means look past the borders of their state, and ceaselessly not their counties, at what’s transpiring in the remainder of the world.
Most lately, the county of Santa Cruz in California arrived at Act 3 of the tragicomedy, and bought 57 hydrogen gasoline cell buses, with US$59 million in funding from a few ranges of presidency, and an utility for $27 million of the Volkswagen DieselGate cash as properly. But once more, over 1,000,000 per bus, with the hopes of turning that into $1.5 million per bus.
Why? Nicely, clearly battery electrical buses can’t take care of the hills in Santa Cruz. That’s simply too onerous. In any case, there couldn’t probably be over 600,000 battery electrical buses on the roads of China in each mixture of geography and local weather proving that Santa Cruz’ hills are simply not all that. Scenic and nice certain, however China’s border runs by way of Mount Everest.
The hydrogen refrain burst out in off key present tunes, mangling the lyrics to outdated Andrew Lloyd Webber songs, that are not less than not possible to make worse.
Will Santa Cruz, uniquely on this planet, stick with hydrogen buses? Nicely, California’s costly and deeply silly community of hydrogen refueling stations may present a clue. About the identical time Santa Cruz was inking the deal, solely half of the stations have been open as a result of they couldn’t get hydrogen. The stations that have been open have been promoting hydrogen for $36 per kilogram, which is like $18 gasoline, getting as a lot of the $15,000 in free hydrogen that Toyota has to present away with each new and used Mirai to get anybody to purchase them earlier than the vehicles inevitably disappeared from the roads.
The following couple of years in Santa Cruz will see Acts 4, 5 and 6, and as at all times, the hydrogen refrain’ discordant squawking will probably be utterly absent.
If you’re in a province, state or metropolis the place you see the indicators of the Odyssey of The Hydrogen Fleet getting into Act 1 or 2, attempt onerous to nip them within the bud. A lot ache, effort, wasted cash and disinformation will probably be averted in case you succeed.
