EVs Take 90.6% Share In Norway – VW, Kia, Ford Debuts

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November noticed plugin EVs take 90.6% share in Norway, up from 89.3% yr on yr. Petrol-only automobiles noticed file low share of 0.6% of the auto market. General auto quantity was 10,348 models, considerably under seasonal norms. The Tesla Mannequin Y was once more September’s bestseller, and several other new fashions debuted.

November’s market noticed mixed EVs take 90.6% share, with BEVs (full battery electrics) contributing a file 81.6%, and PHEVs (plugin hybrids) at 9.1%. These evaluate YoY with figures of 89.3%, with 81.6% BEVs, and seven.7% PHEVs.

We will see that BEV share is flat YoY, with PHEVs barely up. The November 2022 BEV baseline was elevated considerably by pull-forward gross sales forward of the January 1st rule change, which explains the flat YoY share development.

Different powertrains have been affected by the January rule change additionally, such that the pull-forward in November 2022 elevated gross sales volumes throughout the board. Thus November 2023’s YoY quantity comparisons look paltry for each powertrain, together with plugins, with BEVs down 47% and PHEVs down 37%. Nevertheless, the weakest volumes have been for combustion-only powertrains…

Mixed petrol-only and diesel-only automobiles offered simply 266 models in November. This amounted to 2.6% share of the market, a brand new file low. Petrol-only was particularly exhausting hit at 59 models, and simply 0.6% market share.

By way of year-to-date cumulative share, BEVs are nonetheless rising, although are definitely now on the high of the know-how adoption S-curve, up YoY from 78.3% to 83.5%. The determine for November 2021 was a steeper 64.2%.

Greatest Sellers

With Tesla resuming quantity transport in November, the Mannequin Y was once more by far one of the best promoting car, at 1,496 models. The Skoda Enyaq, and Toyota BZ4X, got here in second and third.

The Tesla is so widespread in Norway that it virtually outsold the subsequent 3 fashions mixed, even in a not-peak-volume month.

There was only one notable efficiency within the high 20 — the brand new Xpeng G9 ramped up month-to-month quantity to 298 models (from 78 in October, 12 in September), and received eighth spot within the chart.

As I famous in final month’s report, the G9 has a competitor within the new Nio EL6, and this mannequin additionally stepped up deliveries in November, however at a a lot shallower charge, to 16 models (from its debut 9 models in October), and much exterior the highest 20.

There have been three notable newcomers to Norway in November:

First the Volkswagen ID.7, which got here in sizzling, with 73 debut gross sales. For extra on the ID.7, see November’s Sweden report. Subsequent up, the Kia EV9 additionally made its Norwegian debut in November, with 32 preliminary models. Given Norway’s nice proclivity for SUVs over sedans, that is arguably a extra vital debut than the ID.7, and can promote many extra over time.

Lastly, a modest Norwegian debut for the Ford F150 Lightning pickup truck, with 4 models. This car, like most pickup vehicles widespread within the US market, is usually too giant (5,911 mm size) for the European human surroundings.

Farmers, different rural staff, and development contractors in Europe are inclined to go for smaller pickups just like the Nissan Navara (5,120 mm), or Mitsubishi L200 (5,115 mm), or one thing related, that are nonetheless very giant automobiles in Europe.

Sadly, few of those sorts of smaller pickups — usually from Japanese manufacturers– are provided in BEV variations to date. One exception is the Maxus T90 pickup, (priced from 584,900 krone, €49,750) however that is sadly restricted to 2 wheel drive for now (not one of the best match for off-highway work in Norwegian winters), although an AWD variant is coming. At present the T90 is promoting a mean of simply 10 models monthly.

So, for now, the Ford F150 is not less than another choice for many who have sufficient house to manoeuvre it. It’s at the moment priced at 1,183,000 krone (€100,606), which is another excuse why it received’t be a quantity vendor.

Let’s now take a look at the long run rankings:

Right here, the Tesla Mannequin Y’s sturdy lead is obvious, outselling the subsequent 3 BEVs mixed.

The Toyota BZ4X has climbed for the reason that earlier interval (June to August), now as much as third, from sixth. Likewise, the Hyundai Kona has climbed strongly, due to its current refresh, now as much as 4th, from tenth. The Nissan Leaf is one other climber, as much as eighth, from twentieth. As a facet notice, Mercedes appears to be having a late clearance for its “outdated” EQC mannequin (on sale from 2019), which has already ceased gross sales in neighbouring Sweden. It was method as much as thirteenth place, from forty seventh beforehand.

Due to a remarkably sturdy debut, the Xpeng G9 is already within the high 20, in seventeenth spot, a really spectacular early begin.

Conversely, some fashions have dropped off. The Volkswagen ID.4 has fallen to ninth, from 2nd beforehand, and – at 724 models – simply round 1 / 4 of its prior quantity. The Audi Q8 e-tron additionally fell dramatically, from ninth to thirty first. The Volvo XC40 fell from eleventh to forty eighth, although that is prone to reverse now that the newly refreshed and improved mannequin is beginning to present up.

The Kia EV6 additionally fell off, from twelfth to thirty sixth, seemingly as a consequence of uneven worldwide transport allocations. Particularly with a smaller market like Norway, irregular provide allocation choices for sure fashions may cause giant modifications in rating, even over a 3-month window, and don’t essentially replicate vital demand modifications.

In case you missed it, final month I did an up to date deep dive into the progress of Norway’s car fleet within the transition to electrical, and the correlated discount in fossil gasoline demand. Please have a look there if that’s of curiosity.

Outlook

Even when we exclude the outlying 2022 This autumn, Norway’s auto market seasonal quantity is down from the already-modest 2021 and 2020. We noticed final month that the OFV is at the moment estimating a 25% quantity drop in full yr 2023 in comparison with 2022. Recall that they lately said that the financial circumstances have been primarily guilty, saying that “elevated rates of interest and powerful inflation sting strongly for a lot of.”

The broader economic system’s efficiency in Q3 was unfavorable 1.9% YoY, the worst efficiency since peak-pandemic in mid 2020. Rates of interest stay excessive at 4.25%. Headline inflation had cooled in September, however is now rising once more, at the moment at 4%.

In these circumstances, the auto market will not be anticipated to get again on observe till the economic system turns optimistic as soon as extra. Nevertheless, for these decreased variety of consumers who’re nonetheless in a position to purchase a brand new car, plugins are nonetheless comparatively extra engaging than combustion automobiles. So no matter is going on with volumes, the market share of plugins will nonetheless slowly climb.

What do you concentrate on Norway’s EV transition? Please bounce in to the remark part and tell us.