A lot has already been opined on the end result of COP28, and whereas the world’s foremost local weather convention is thought for spawning stress and frustration, this one appeared particularly fraught.
It’s not stunning. That is the primary COP the place we’re face-to-face with the truth of breaching the 1.5C warming restrict that was the central thesis of COP21. It was additionally the primary to be chaired by an oil and fuel govt, placing a crude highlight on the conflicting pursuits which have develop into entrenched within the COP course of.
Certainly, the gathering was mired in controversy earlier than it even started, after it emerged that the United Arab Emirates had plans to make use of its place as host to do backroom oil offers. The tone wasn’t precisely improved when the convention president proclaimed {that a} fossil gas phaseout would “take us again into caves.”
Regardless of seemingly unsurpassable variations, a deal was reached on the eleventh hour (one other COP custom). And never desirous to miss our likelihood to chime in on the end result, we’re sharing our prime takeaways from this 12 months’s gathering:
The elephant within the room
The talk about oil and fuel’s presence on the local weather motion desk has reached new decibels. As many nations and industries pivot to embrace the financial alternatives that accompany the power transition, oil and fuel is arguably the final and largest elephant within the room. And this 12 months’s COP lastly appeared it within the eye.
The ultimate wording included a dedication to transition away from fossil fuels in power techniques “in a simply, orderly and equitable method, accelerating motion on this essential decade, in order to realize internet zero by 2050 in step with the science.” It represented a big concession from the “part out” language that tons of of nations had pushed for. The lead negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States described the deal as “an incremental development over enterprise as standard, when what we actually want is an exponential step change in our actions.”
And but, as many commentators have been fast to level out, some progress continues to be progress. To borrow the phrases of author Ketan Joshi, “COP’s consensus mannequin will solely spit out outcomes which are the weakest and worst… (however) if absolutely the fundamental naked minimal is shifting in the proper path, it’s possible the median is simply too.” The deal marks the primary time that many oil- and gas-producing nations have been keen to even interact in a dialogue about the way forward for fossil fuels—a transfer that some say would have been “unthinkable” simply two years in the past.
Canada confirmed management
Going into COP, Canada’s status on the local weather world stage had misplaced a bit of of its lustre. Canada was publicly referred to as out on the UN’s September Local weather Ambition Summit for being “one of many largest expanders of fossil fuels final 12 months.” And through COP, the federal government of Alberta was awarded the satirical “Fossil of the Day” award by the World Local weather Motion Community for being “the perfect at being the worst and doing probably the most to do the least.”
However throughout every week when many petrostates had been combating to delay motion to scale back fossil fuels, Canada introduced the world’s first oil and fuel emissions cap together with necessary rules to curb methane emissions. The cap, as we stated on the time, is each obligatory and honest and represents the final line of defence to make sure that Canada’s fossil gas business doesn’t put the nation offside its local weather commitments. As the Globe and Mail’s Adam Radwanski put it, “Ottawa has ostensibly taken the home fossil-fuel sector at its phrase that it’s each keen and capable of extract oil and fuel extra sustainably than its worldwide competitors. The ball is now in business’s courtroom.”
In different much less headline-generating (however nonetheless necessary) information, Canada made quite a lot of agreements on industrial decarbonization. As a part of its membership to the Industrial Deep Decarbonisation Initiative, Canada signed a brand new pledge to obtain low-emission metal, cement, and concrete in public development tasks, cementing Canada’s management in driving the worldwide decarbonization of heavy industries. In an analogous vein, Canada co-led the Cement & Concrete Breakthrough Initiative to “allow nations to share finest practices on a spread of insurance policies and different measures to decarbonize the cement and concrete sector.”
The {dollars} and cents
The convention kicked off with an settlement to pay loss and harm funds to creating nations which are battling the worst impacts of local weather change. The preliminary dedication totalled a fairly meagre US$429 million, with Canada committing an much more meagre $16 million. The timeline and dimension of replenishing of the fund was additionally not clear, elevating questions in regards to the longevity and sincerity of the dedication. This loss and harm fund is separate to the yet-to-be-fulfilled local weather finance commitments made in COPs previous.
These loss and harm {dollars} paled into insignificance subsequent to a brand new US$30 billion fund introduced by COP President Sultan Al Jaber in collaboration with world asset managers BlackRock, Brookfield, and TPG. The brand new fund, dubbed ALTÉRRA, goals to draw $250 billion of funding by the top of the last decade to “steer non-public markets in the direction of local weather investments and deal with reworking rising markets and creating economies.”
The world embraces renewable energy
After the U.S. and China made a historic deal final month to triple renewable energy by 2030, 110 nations—together with Canada—joined in. The brand new pledge, co-launched by the EU and the UAE, noticed nations decide to tripling world renewable capability by the top of the last decade. It’s indicative of the large leaps ahead in renewable energy era lately. The Worldwide Vitality Company has reported record-breaking quantities of renewables added to world electrical energy techniques every year, whereas assume tank Ember lately advised that worldwide emissions from energy era might have already peaked.
However, as we wrote in a latest op-ed, this type of endorsement for variable renewables like wind and photo voltaic hasn’t been widespread in Canada during the last a number of years. Solely lately have we seen Nova Scotia, Quebec, B.C., and Ontario lay plans for extra wind and photo voltaic, and even then, there have been stops and begins. Alberta, the photo voltaic capital of Canada, slapped a moratorium on new renewable improvement, placing in danger each jobs and funding. With the worldwide winds powering a shift to renewable power, it’s excessive time Canadian political leaders shed any outdated concepts about renewables.
On the finish of one other tumultuous gathering, there may be maybe one vital piece of widespread floor to be discovered. In his closing remarks, COP President Sultan Al Jaber stated, merely, “We’re what we do, not what we are saying.” For the primary time, the world has agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. Now, we should do it.
This submit was co-authored by Keri McNamara.
