Winter Storm Blackouts – Reflections from a 12 months Later – SACE | Southern Alliance for Clear EnergySACE

Southeast utilities are utilizing the specter of blackouts final yr to double down on the useful resource that failed clients essentially the most: fuel. As a substitute utilities ought to look to vitality effectivity, photo voltaic and storage, elevated regional coordination, and elevated connections to different areas.

Maggie Shober | December 21, 2023

| Utilities

Final December was actually one to recollect for lots of causes, notably if you happen to lived in elements of the Southeast that noticed rolling blackouts for a number of days throughout freezing temperatures proper earlier than a serious vacation. I’m in fact speaking about Winter Storm Elliott that hit the Southeast on December 23-24, 2022, inflicting rolling blackouts all through the area, particularly in territories served by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and Duke Vitality within the Carolinas. Utilities within the Southeast and not using a regional transmission operator, or an unbiased entity that operates the grid and ensures reliability throughout a big territory, had been left on their very own. These similar utilities have elevated reliance on fossil fuel over latest years, leaving clients in the dead of night when these fuel energy vegetation failed.

We already had some useful info from Duke about what occurred to its techniques in North and South Carolina, and a few less-than-helpful info from TVA about what occurred to its system. Nationwide entities FERC (the Federal Vitality Regulatory Fee) and NERC (Nationwide Electrical Reliability Company) not too long ago revealed a joint report investigating what occurred throughout all impacted areas and making suggestions to keep away from rolling blackouts sooner or later. Listed below are some useful tidbits from that report.

All through the storm, almost 130 GW, or 130,000 MW, skilled outages. The height degree of outages was over 90 GW. These outages led to “load shed,” i.e. blackouts, second solely to Texas in 2021. A lot of the technology outages had been fuel, although TVA additionally misplaced a whole giant coal energy plant (its 2,200 MW Cumberland coal plant). There have been three essential causes vegetation went offline or had been derated: the plant skilled mechanical points, freezing, or gasoline points.

From all of this one factor is evident: coal and fuel energy vegetation failed considerably greater than anticipated and led to the necessity for rolling blackouts. Utilities truly plan their techniques assuming that a certain quantity of technology might be unavailable. The quantity of technology that failed throughout Winter Storm Elliott far exceeded these planning assumptions.

Additionally obvious from the FERC/NERC report is that utilities ought to have been ready. That is the fifth occasion within the final eleven years with the identical causes and outcomes, making this an “unacceptably acquainted sample,” as described within the report. Additionally, this chilly climate was forecasted “nicely upfront” of the storm; as early as December 14 based on the report.

Winter Storm Elliott Timeline

December 14: Climate reviews present excessive chilly extremely doubtless for December 22-25

December 19: TVA and Duke talk danger of maximum climate internally

December 23: Rolling blackouts start

• TVA started experiencing outages at 1:00am, with 6,000 MW out by 8:00am. TVA initially obtained emergency energy from neighbors, together with MISO, Duke, Southern Firm, and PJM. Regardless of this help, with technology outages of 6,500 MW, TVA instituted rolling blackouts from 10:31am to 12:43pm.
• Duke started experiencing outages late (11:30pm), dropping about 2,000 MW, and people outages continued into the subsequent day.

December 24: Rolling blackouts broaden

• TVA was nonetheless experiencing technology outages and peak load from the day gone by. For the reason that storm is so giant, neighboring techniques additionally had technology outages and peak load, so dialed again the emergency help offered to out-of-market utilities like TVA. TVA instituted rolling blackouts but once more, this time from 5:51am to 11:30am.
• Duke was already experiencing technology outages when help from neighbors was reduce. Round 6:30am each Duke utilities started rolling blackouts. Duke stopped rolling blackouts by 8-10am, however due to some failures of the rolling blackout software program, some clients remained offline till 3-4pm.
• DESC skilled over 1,000 MW of outages from 12:30am till shortly after 9:00am. DESC started rolling blackouts at 8:00am, then stopped them shortly thereafter after receiving emergency help from Southern Firm, which was receiving emergency help from Florida Energy & Mild.
• Santee Cooper skilled over 500 MW of outages from 2:35am to 7:00am. Santee Cooper had roughly half-hour of rolling blackouts at 7:00am.

My Private Reflections on Elliott

Simply days earlier than the winter storm hit our space in east Tennessee, we had our current furnace serviced for the season. The significance of those sorts of providers was made clear to make use of as a result of the technician discovered that a difficulty with our furnace at the moment was inflicting fuel fumes to enter the home every time the fuel furnace ran. He turned off the fuel a part of the furnace so it might solely run on the electrical resistance backup till we might get a brand new unit put in.

So on December 23 and Christmas Eve, my household sat round in coats and hats inside whereas the ability cycled on and off and the temperature ranged from 45-55 levels inside our home. Regretting the impacts to the electrical grid and our electrical invoice, we ran area heaters, and did what else we might. Our essential focus for these two days was making an attempt to maintain the home heat sufficient for our babies. The vacation was barely an afterthought. Fortunately issues warmed as much as about 60 levels on Christmas itself, and the children opened presents carrying hats and gloves inside.

In early January 2023, we had a brand new warmth pump put in, and our home has been toasty ever since. This new warmth pump can successfully heat our home so long as the surface temperature is above detrimental 4 levels, which it’s right here in Knoxville.

Shifting Ahead

The FERC and NERC workers have doubled down on their suggestions from earlier winter storms, calling for electrical utilities to winterize their techniques, coordinate higher with one another, and coordinate higher with the fuel trade. Nevertheless, the response from the utilities themselves has been fairly uniform and counter-intuitive; they wish to double down on the useful resource that failed essentially the most: fuel. TVA and Duke’s techniques within the Carolinas, the 2 techniques with the worst blackouts, have proposed including 4.5 and 6.2 GW of recent fuel energy vegetation respectively.

As a substitute, utilities ought to give attention to clear vitality assets that scale back or deal with excessive winter peak demand and supply resilience for purchasers in a world the place excessive climate is changing into the norm.

1. Utilities ought to share assets throughout bigger areas and have grid assets managed by an unbiased entity, a lot the way in which markets are run to our north and west. These areas of the nation skilled comparable climate throughout Winter Storm Elliott, and whereas additionally they skilled technology outages, they didn’t need to resort to rolling blackouts.
2. Utilities ought to incentivize buyer vitality effectivity and demand response applications that concentrate on winter peak demand. Chilly climate warmth pumps (like my new system), warmth pump water heaters, and weatherization applications ought to all be ramped up throughout the area. And there are actually expanded federal monetary incentives for these techniques; utilities might get extra bang for his or her buck by crafting applications to focus on bringing as a lot of those federal funds to the area as potential.
3. Utilities ought to put money into photo voltaic and storage assets. Whereas technology outages started earlier than the solar was up, rolling blackouts continued by means of noon. Photo voltaic assets can present vitality throughout these instances (and did throughout Winter Storm Elliott), and if sufficient are added to the grid extra technology could be saved. Storage assets are versatile and responsive, and could be dependable assets when the grid is constrained.
4. Utilities ought to improve transmission connections inside the area and to different areas. Whereas this storm lined an unusually giant geographic space, most excessive climate doesn’t. Our grid is extra resilient whether it is larger than the climate. So the Southeast might present solar energy to the Midwest, and the Midwest might present wind energy to the South. Actually evaluation exhibits there was extra wind in Oklahoma whereas TVA and Duke had been rolling blackouts on their techniques. Elevated transmission connections between these areas might have prevented, or not less than decreased the necessity for, the blackouts. A latest examine by the Southeast regional transmission planning group (SERTP) exhibits that it’s surprisingly cheap to extend transmission inside the area and to the Midwest.

As Christmas approaches with a new child added to our household this fall, I’m very grateful that we have now a dependable warmth system that won’t pump poisonous fumes into our home; and I hope TVA has discovered its lesson from final yr so we don’t need to climate one other winter storm with rolling blackouts.