Ballard Averaging $55 Million Annual Losses Whereas Pushing Hydrogen Rock Uphill With Grants

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There are three lengthy operating supporting forged members in stagings of the unhappy farce that’s trials of hydrogen for fleets, FuelCell Vitality, Plug Energy and Ballard Energy Techniques. All of their market capitalizations peaked roughly 99% above their present inventory valuations in 2000. They’ve all participated in innumerable hydrogen fleet trials, but not one of the trials has resulted in a whole lot or hundreds of automobiles working on hydrogen. Fairly the other, most have resulted in hydrogen being deserted fully.

It was a sufficiently sturdy sample that I had enjoyable writing a notional, six-part play across the theme, the phases being so clear and the hydrogen refrain so pervasive early but fully silent later. I’ve written a few articles on examples of the play being staged in Iceland, Canada, France, Germany, India, Austria and the USA, generally a number of instances in a single nation.

At present a publicist tried to curiosity me in a ‘win’ by one of many three companies, and that led me to ask “Along with the Whistler, BC failure, the place else have Ballard gasoline cells been concerned in failed trials since 2000”? The listing is lengthy. That is in all probability not an exhaustive listing of their failures, but it surely does reply one query and beg one other.

Whereas 2000 is 24 years in the past now, Ballard was fashioned lengthy earlier than that in 1979. Mockingly, initially it was fashioned to analysis and discover functions for lithium batteries, however deserted that for gasoline cells in 1989. Sure, Ballard is definitely a 44 12 months previous firm that pivoted away from a know-how that has come to dominate transportation and points of power. It went public in 1993, making it a 30 12 months previous publicly listed company.

It was a sizzling inventory within the late Nineteen Nineties, however peaked early 2000, and by no means remotely recovered. But it retains limping on, by no means truly succeeding or being put out of its distress. So let’s take a look at the litany of an absurd variety of tiny trials that by no means led to profitable development.

In 2000, Ballard and town of Chicago concluded a two 12 months trial of three buses. Equally, the Metropolis of Vancouver trial of three Ballard powered buses concluded that 12 months. The Metropolis of Ottawa checked out these two trials and concluded that they had been way more costly, lined a lot much less floor, had very excessive gasoline prices, required fixed upkeep and determined to disregard them. After trialing hydrogen buses, Chicago deserted the thought, by no means trialed them once more and is at present shopping for battery electrical buses. Equally, the Metropolis of Vancouver ignored hydrogen buses as effectively.

In 2001, Ballard concluded a hydrogen bus trial with the SunLine Transit Company of Thousand Palms, CA, which serves Coachella, which is perhaps telling. They naturally claimed it was a shocking success. The company did too, however principally due to the visibility it introduced them. The remaining report has pages of elements changed and street requires a single bus for a single 12 months. SunLine, having constructed a single hydrogen refueling station and present in a state with an odd obsession with hydrogen, has continued to reap governmental largesse to the tune of, most lately, $7,819,257, for hydrogen trials and upgrading the station. The fleet nonetheless has a number of gasoline cell buses with Ballard gasoline cells in them, making it presumably the most lasting fleet. Nevertheless, that final governmental grant was matched with equal funding to purchase battery electrical buses and set up charging infrastructure, so it appears as if the Odyssey is coming into its remaining phases.

The identical 12 months, Ballard additionally managed to persuade a Japanese sewage plant to strive it out, delivery a 250 kW gasoline cell to be run off biomethane. By 2004 it was historical past.

In 2002, Coleman Powermate Inc launched a gasoline cell generator incorporating Ballard’s know-how, per SEC filings by Ballard. The $8,000 USD gadget had adequate juice to energy a pc, telephone, fax, and lightweight for 8 to 10 hours earlier than refueling, which is to say a ludicrously small quantity of power for a really costly worth. It sank with no hint, with no document of anybody shopping for a unit. Ballard purchased a few tiny companies and Alstom’s gasoline cell enterprise in 2002 as effectively.

2003 noticed a trial of a Ballard gasoline cell as an uninterruptible energy provide (UPS). There’s no indication that the UPS agency, MGE, bothered to maneuver ahead, and present MGE UPS units don’t have gasoline cells.

That 12 months additionally noticed the launch of the London trial of three gasoline cell buses, below the EU and UK authorities funded CUTE and HyFleet. Ballard claims this as an enormous win as London has expanded its complete fleet of hydrogen buses to twenty. In the meantime, London has 8,600 buses and a few thousand of them are battery electrical, with a whole lot extra battery electrical buses on order from a number of distributors together with BYD. The London trial is a kind of limping alongside hydrogen ‘success’ tales that doesn’t stand as much as scrutiny as effectively, with the hydrogen fleet a rounding error in comparison with battery electrical automobiles.

Because the London transit organizations’ personal stories level out, there may be 99% to 100% success charge masking routes with a mix of depot and alternative charging alongside journeys for battery electrical automobiles, with solely a 92% success charge for routes with hydrogen buses which might solely be fueled at depots. The report additionally factors out that hydrogen buses are way more costly to gasoline and keep than battery electrical buses that are already at value parity with diesel buses as a result of decrease upkeep and gasoline prices. They had been additionally worse than diesel for CO2e emissions with hydrogen from steam reformation of pure fuel, and naturally worse than battery electrical if electrolysis was utilized in any occasion. It’s unclear why London persists with hydrogen when it has so clearly did not ship.

2005 noticed supply of 5 Ford vehicles with Ballard gasoline cells in them to the BC authorities as a part of a multi-year, $8.7 million trial of the automobiles. No remaining report on that trial appears to be out there, and the federal government actually doesn’t have a fleet of gasoline cell vehicles as we speak. Sank with no hint, taking the hundreds of thousands with it.

Additionally in 2005, Ballard delivered the primary gasoline cells for forklifts which finally ended up in Walmart distribution facilities, the place there’s a tiny quantity of advantage of their use in indoor areas to displace pure fuel, diesel and lead acid battery forklifts. Early deployments of forklifts in Walmart and different distribution facilities had been funded by the US DOE to the tune of about $1.3 million per forklift. There are about 40,000 hydrogen gasoline cell forklifts in operation in comparison with 1.3 million battery electrical and 800,000 inside combustion forklifts offered in 2021 alone globally.

Hydrogen gasoline cell forklifts stay a rounding error area of interest that’s closely promoted by the US DOE as an enormous win of their hydrogen for power displays, though they’re spending much less direct cash on them now. It’s price noting that the hydrogen for the few forklifts in operation is black or grey hydrogen, not inexperienced hydrogen. Different international locations have a couple of hundred right here and there. Toyota, US agency Hyster and Hyundai have choices, however the Toyota and Hyundai ones are principally demonstration models, with South Korea deploying one check unit this 12 months.

Whereas touted as an enormous hydrogen win, the truth is that the forklift market has chosen lithium ion batteries because the power provider of the longer term and hydrogen forklifts exist solely in legacy companies which had been initially funded by the US DOE or governmental companies in Europe, Japan or South Korea.

In 2006, Ballard managed to promote extra gasoline cells for forklifts. It’s price noting that it offered them to Common Hydrogen of BC, which was additionally based by Ballard co-founders, so undoubtedly each companies claimed an enormous win as an alternative of a bit of household commerce of cash.

In 2007, Ballard offered its automotive gasoline cell division and property to Daimler and Ford. Daimler took that and has managed to lease 60 whole vehicles to individuals on three continents since. Ford constructed 30 whole vehicles with gasoline cells. Neither commercialized gasoline cell vehicles.

In 2008, Ballard signed a deal with North America’s largest bus producer, New Flyer, to be the unique provider of gasoline cells for a proposed line of hydrogen powered shuttle buses. There’s no proof New Flyer launched that product.

Additionally that 12 months, Ballard signed a cope with Plug Energy — word inventory worth chart above — for extra gasoline cells for forklift energy trains Plug Energy was promoting.

In 2009, Ballard launched gasoline cell again up programs for telecommunications. They nonetheless listing the product on their web site, however don’t have any buyer testimonials or references. Presumably they’ve offered a couple of right here and there, with one announcement about a sale in India, adequate to maintain the product limping alongside. The UPS market is dominated by lithium ion batteries after all, with gasoline cell UPS’ being a rounding error.

In 2010, Ballard gasoline cells had been put, with nice fanfare, in 20 buses in Whistler for the 2010 Winter Olympics. The hydrogen was not less than ‘inexperienced’, in that it was made with hydroelectricity, however sadly that was Quebec hydro and the hydrogen was trucked throughout the nation in 9,000 km spherical journey journeys, with every truck load possible enabling about 10,000 km of bus journey. The bus fleet, along with very costly hydrogen, had innumerable issues together with freezing within the comparatively delicate Whistler winters, and hydrogen was deserted fully for buses within the province.

In 2011, Ballard offered 5 gasoline cell modules for a hydrogen bus trial in Norway. These buses managed to make it into service in 2013, operated for a few years and had been deserted. Oslo is buying a whole lot of electrical buses with the goal of being totally battery electrical by the tip of 2023, one thing that they nearly achieved.

In 2012, Ballard offered a gasoline cell energy system to Toyota’s California gross sales and advertising and marketing headquarters. California, after all, paid for it. There is no such thing as a public document of some other gross sales, though they had been delivering a couple of gasoline cells to Norway and London primarily based on earlier gross sales, and presumably making an attempt to maintain the Whistler buses working.

It additionally purchased a small backup system firm, Idatec, which turned methanol into hydrogen to be used in gasoline cells. Methanol, after all, is a wooden alcohol made fully from fossil fuels with every kilogram of methanol having a carbon debt of two kilograms of CO2, on common. By stripping the carbon out of the methanol, extra CO2 is emitted in addition to throwing away 45% of the power within the liquid after which placing it by means of a gasoline cell which is 50% environment friendly. Methanol to hydrogen to gasoline cells is a very non-virtuous pathway that’s increased emissions than simply burning diesel in mills, in addition to being way more costly.

In 2013, Ballard claimed the five hundredth sale of its methanol to hydrogen to gasoline cell product, primarily based on Idatec’s earlier gross sales.

Additionally that 12 months, Ballard introduced a deal to provide Volkswagen with gasoline cells for its hydrogen HyMotion demonstrators, one thing VW had been exhibiting off at commerce reveals globally for years. VW by no means launched a hydrogen gasoline cell automobile on the market or lease, and clearly acknowledged this 12 months that they’d by no means achieve this.

In 2014, Ballard renewed its Plug Energy forklift deal.

In addition they introduced that they’d be powering 27 hydrogen buses manufactured by European bus agency Van Hool. The 5 deserted Oslo buses had been amongst them. Cologne in Germany had two, and Cologne stays an odd holdout for hydrogen buses, with 52 of them from completely different producers. In fact, Cologne is in Germany’s industrial heartland with many automotive and petrochemical companies, so has a robust predisposition regionally to molecules for power. It’s going to be one of many depart behind areas except it will get its head out of hydrogen for all the pieces. All of Cologne’s buses have Ballard gasoline cells in them, so 52 gasoline cells in a decade makes them one of many agency’s greatest clients.

San Remo, Italy picked up 5 buses, funded by the federal government by means of FCH-JU below grand settlement 278192. In fact, San Remo realized the folly of its methods and is revamping its electrical trolley buses with new battery electrical buses. There’s no proof that the hydrogen buses are nonetheless in operation.

Flanders, Belgium picked up 5 of the buses. In fact, it’s simply down the street from the Van Hool headquarters in Koningshooikt. Regardless of that, the Flanders transit company De Lijn may be very clear on its web site that all buses and trams can be battery electrical or operating on overhead wires, with nary a point out of hydrogen.

Lastly, Aberdeen, Scotland was to have obtained 10 hydrogen buses with Ballard gasoline cells. As a reminder, Aberdeen is a significant North Sea fossil gasoline industrial hub, though it’s struggling by means of the low-carbon transition with intensive offshore wind work and lots of people hoping desperately for each undersea carbon seize and extra fuel exploration. Huge on molecules for power, in different phrases, though with a bunch of individuals, together with many I’ve spoken with prior to now couple of years, engaged on the transition.

What meaning is numerous governmental funding for hydrogen bus useless ends. Though it seems as if the Van Hool hydrogen buses are lengthy gone, the Aberdeen transit group nonetheless has 25 double decker hydrogen buses manufactured by Irish agency Wright Buses. In fact, it additionally has 24 electrical buses, and the hydrogen buses are operating on grey hydrogen. As soon as dearer low-carbon hydrogen is required  and governmental cash runs out, the hydrogen fleet can be mothballed. That’s only a matter of time. For now, the gasoline cells in Aberdeen’s buses nonetheless appear to be coming from Ballard, making it Ballard’s second greatest buyer up till this level.

From 27 hydrogen buses with Ballard gasoline cells to 77 buses in solely 11 years. In the meantime, there hundreds of electrical buses being delivered in Europe annually. Ballard’s European gasoline cell buses stay a rounding error.

In 2015, Ballard inked a deal for one more single MW energy system to be put in at a sodium chlorate chemical plant in Bordeaux, France which generates hydrogen as a by product of its chemical processes. Naturally the tab was picked up by the federal government and a French hydrogen manufacturing concern. The agency which took the gasoline cell, AkzoNobel had accomplished this earlier than in 2005, and has its personal gasoline cell agency, Nedstack, so it’s not wanting like a stable win for Ballard.

The large information for 2015 was the 300 bus deal in China, with Ballard’s reduce being price $17 million. Lots of the buses had been for town of Foshan, inhabitants 8 million and a spot which selected a really direct strategic pathway for hydrogen. They’ve 1,000 hydrogen gasoline cell buses on their roads now apparently, however had introduced plans for two,441 electrical buses. Having gasoline cell buses and now a light-weight tram as effectively makes Foshan a deep outlier in China, as 89% of bus purchases are battery electrical and about 600,000 battery electrical buses drive silently its streets. In fact, the hydrogen wasn’t inexperienced, however not less than a few of it was blue.

Are these 1,000 buses the beginning of a significant ramp up for Ballard? No, China is after all growing and deploying its personal proprietary gasoline cell applied sciences in buses now. As there are below 10,000 registered gasoline cell automobiles in all the nation, and 1,000 of them are the buses in Foshan, this seems much more like an industrial export coverage to naive patrons than a transit coverage to me.

In 2016, China was in Ballard’s information stream once more, with a three way partnership for a Chinese language agency to fabricate and promote Ballard’s backup programs in that nation, in different phrases a licensing settlement, not a development settlement. And there was a distribution settlement with a Toyota subsidiary for Japan. Not an thrilling 12 months.

In 2017, Ballard closed one other licensing cope with a Chinese language producer, Broad-Ocean Motor Firm, to fabricate and promote their gasoline cell motors. In fact, that was the 12 months that Broad-Ocean turned Ballard’s giant inventory holder as effectively, nearly 10%. In addition they delivered one other handful of bus gasoline cells to SunLine in California.

In 2018, Ballard’s Chinese language licensee introduced a deal for 500 3-ton vehicles to be deployed in China. In fact, there are at present over 500,000 battery electrical vehicles in China, and as famous below 10,000 registered gasoline cell automobiles within the nation proper now, so that is nonetheless rounding error territory.

In addition they offered a few extra gasoline cells for forklifts, this time by means of a agency which integrates their gasoline cells into drive trains for fork lifts and at Daimler Alabama plant. In fact, US DOE funding was concerned.

In 2019, making an attempt desperately to create a gasoline cell automobile market the place none exists, Ballard organized for a number of workers to lease Toyota Mirai vehicles in BC.

Working with the identical French hydrogen provider, Ballard introduced they had been growing a energy station for French Guiana, changing wind and photo voltaic power into hydrogen after which again into a lot much less electrical energy in an electricity-destroying loop at nice expense. 4 years later, it’s nonetheless not operational and apparently the locals need it to not be constructed.

In Alberta, Ballard obtained a part of the US$11.2 million of governmental largesse for 2 hydrogen powered semi vehicles. They’re anticipated to enter some semblance of service in 2024, 5 years after the deal was introduced, nonetheless funded by governmental cash.

Additionally that 12 months, Ballard signed a deal to offer some gasoline cells for a agency which makes mining tools, First Mode, which might set up them in automobiles of their proving grounds. This 12 months First Mode accomplished its 12 months of testing of a single truck, simply in time for mining large BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue to announce that hydrogen had no place in mining and that decarbonized mines could be battery electrical.

Ballard turned a part of H2Ports in Europe, a company vainly making an attempt to get ports to decarbonize with gasoline cell automobiles. In fact, this 12 months business large A.P. Moller Maersk subdivision APM Terminals, which runs 8% of the world’s ports, revealed their white paper with complete value of possession for battery electrical vs hydrogen that makes it clear that that whole phase can be ignoring hydrogen too.

Lastly, Ballard introduced a cope with ABB’s marine division to develop a hydrogen gasoline cell tug boat in France. As of 2022, there was a design idea and there’s no indication {that a} hull has hit water. ABB does appear to be concerned in plenty of makes an attempt to place hydrogen in ships, however all inland delivery and port service boats are simply electrifying. For example, China has two 700 unit container ships plying 1,000 km routes on the Yangtze, powered by batteries in containers which might be winched on and off to cost, and Europe has a smaller container ship with the same mannequin. A number of electrification occurring in actuality, and little or no hydrogen.

In 2020, Ballard firmed up a memorandum of understanding with Audi, and delivered no gasoline cells below that settlement so far as I may inform.

Additionally, in one other match of governmental largesse, Norway funded retrofitting of an excavator with a Ballard gasoline cell for trials. In the meantime, just about each producer is bringing battery electrical development tools to market.

In 2021, Ballard re-announced the French Guiana undertaking which goes nowhere. In addition they obtained an order for one (1) 200 kW gasoline cell from a hydrogen undertaking at an ammonia plant in Portugal. If you end up pushing press releases for a single tiny gasoline cell order, there’s an issue.

With extra governmental largesse, Ballard goes to work with Microsoft and Caterpillar on a knowledge middle backup system demonstrator, funded by the US DOE below the H2Scale Initiative with NREL Lab help.

Ballard additionally signed a cope with Canadian Pacific Railroad to offer a few gasoline cells for a hydrogen powered locomotive trial, one thing that’s useless within the water as all rail will electrify with grid ties and batteries, as is occurring in all places on the planet already with the lagging exception of North America.

Late within the 12 months, the ever optimistic hydrogen booster H2-Worldwide weblog boldly introduced “Ballard Energy – 2022 would be the 12 months of the breakthrough”.

In 2022, Ballard misplaced a document $173.5 million on revenues of $83.8 million.

The agency additionally agreed to offer a single energy unit for a single demonstration freight truck for Chinese language agency Knowledge, which might provide the truck to Pepsi in Australia. It hasn’t entered service but. The presence of Queensland State Minister for Vitality, Renewables and Hydrogen, Mick de Brenni, at a testing press convention means that governmental cash is on the desk there as effectively.

The agency made the startling declare that “The corporate’s know-how is now utilized in greater than 1,400 transit buses and a pair of,300 vehicles, along with trains and ships” in its ESG report. Given the small numbers of trials, the small numbers of automobiles within the trials and the failure of so many trials, these numbers seem inflated. However taking them at face worth, after 44 years, the agency has managed to get their know-how into solely 3,700 vehicles and buses.

As soon as once more, rounding error numbers in comparison with the three million buses on the roads of the world’s cities and the roughly 335 million business automobiles on roads. And it’s a rounding error in comparison with the variety of battery electrical automobiles of every kind.

With that declare comes the much more exceptional declare that Ballard powered automobiles resulted in “53 million fewer US gallons (200 million liters) of diesel in 2022, avoiding about 540,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide”. The primary half, certain, however the carbon dioxide? As this timeline reveals, just about all the hydrogen that’s put by means of Ballard’s gasoline cells globally is grey hydrogen, and the one occasion of inexperienced hydrogen in Whistler trucked the hydrogen throughout the nation with diesel.

Let’s simply begin with 200 million liters of diesel. Every liter emits about 2.7 kilograms of CO2, so 200 million of them certainly would emit about 540,000 tons of CO2. However when the hydrogen is produced from pure fuel, ever kilogram comes with a carbon debt of about 11 kilograms of CO2e between upstream leakage and steam reformation.

A kilogram of hydrogen has about as a lot power as a gallon of diesel, however gasoline cells are extra environment friendly, so let’s name it 30 million kilograms of hydrogen. Multiply that by 11 kilograms and precise emissions are about 330 thousand tons as an alternative of 540 thousand tons, or about 60% of diesel emissions. Positive, gasoline cell automobiles don’t emit particulates and noxious chemical compounds, in order that’s higher for buses, however hydrogen gasoline cells run on both grey hydrogen or electrolysed hydrogen will all the time have increased or a lot CO2 emissions than simply utilizing batteries. This, by the best way, is a tough estimate, and the London report on their hydrogen fleet truly pegged full lifecycle emissions increased for hydrogen with steam reformation of pure fuel than for diesel.

Additionally, Canadian Pacific continued down the useless finish hydrogen gasoline cell locomotive route with a few extra orders and a few dozen extra bus orders got here in for Europe, this time for Poland which apparently hasn’t regarded round at what everyone else is doing. Oh, wait, there are already approaching a thousand electrical buses working in that nation. As soon as once more, Ballard’s gasoline cell is a rounding error.

Yet one more factor on these Polish gasoline cell buses. They’re by Solaris, which is a Polish bus producer that’s been losing a few of its money and time on gasoline cells whereas promoting vastly extra electrical buses. It’s fully unclear why as late as 2022 the tiny metropolis of Wałbrzych is taken with losing what little cash it has on hydrogen buses as an alternative of cheaper, simpler electrical ones, however irrational habits does persist regardless of overwhelming empirical proof that everybody else goes battery electrical.

And so, 2023 rolls round. 170 extra gasoline cells for Solaris in Poland. One other 60 gasoline cells for First Mode for mining tools that gained’t promote effectively.

And Ford is again on the hydrogen desk, this time with the thought that they’ll develop hydrogen heavy responsibility vehicles, not having paid consideration to the worldwide battery truck dominance, the stellar electrical truck outcomes from NACFE’s Run on Much less 2023 evaluation, however positively seeking to spend a few of the US$77 million the US DOE gave to them, GM and Chrysler to develop hydrogen vehicles, in contravention of all of the fundamentals of widespread sense.

And in order that’s the 44 12 months historical past of this perpetual chaser of governmental cash. Just about fully failed initiatives that don’t actually cut back carbon emissions. Rounding error numbers of energy trains for automobiles, plenty of that are mothballed completely.

Only for enjoyable, I went by means of Ballard’s annual outcomes from 2000 to 2022 inclusive. Over these 23 years, they’ve recorded $1.3 billion in internet losses, a mean of $55 million per 12 months.

Peak valuation in March 2000. 2.6% of that market valuation as we speak. A a long time lengthy historical past of common $55 million annual losses. A historical past of scraping by on governmental grant applications. A historical past that included pivoting away from lithium batteries to gasoline cells. A historical past of persisting with gasoline cells at the same time as globally in each area of interest gasoline cells fail miserably in comparison with batteries and grid ties. What precisely is the Board of Administrators doing?