From the Cliff Mass Climate Weblog
Cliff Mass
The poor protection of snowpack traits within the Seattle Instances and different newspapers was very evident as we speak on the entrance web page of our native newspaper (see beneath).
A narrative “Winter has arrived, snow not a lot” stuffed the appropriate aspect of the entrance web page. A reprint of a NY Instances article by Mike Baker, this story means that the shortage of snow was the results of international warming/local weather change (see beneath).
Amazingly, this text neglects the important thing motive why our snowpack is just not doing too properly: it is a very sturdy El Nino yr.
This incurious article doesn’t overview the pattern of mountain snowpack over the previous a number of many years: an important check of whether or not local weather change could possibly be blamed.
Simply poor journalism. However let’s do the correct evaluation on this weblog, and you may determine for your self.
El Nino
We’re in a really sturdy El Nino and such occasions are extremely correlated with heat winter temperatures and poor snowpack over the area. Sea floor temperatures have been about 2C above regular over the previous two months (see beneath).
Based on NOAA/NWS, El Nino years are related to hotter than regular October-November-Decembers (see beneath for a neighborhood local weather division)
And snowfall is lower than regular over our area for El Nino autumn intervals (see beneath, brown colours)
The heat and low snowpack over the Northwest throughout El Nino years are produced by enhanced low stress over the japanese Pacific and excessive stress to the northeast of our area. The noticed sample for November 1-December twenty seventh this yr at 500 hPa (about 18,000 ft) is rather like that.
El Nino is clearly a significant driver of our anomalous heat and low snowpack, one thing not talked about within the article.
However there’s one other examine on the Seattle Instances/NY Instances climate-change origin of the low snowpack.
If local weather change was the origin, there can be a progressive lack of snowpack over the area because the planet warmed.
That is one thing we will examine. Beneath is a plot of the water content material within the NW snowpack on April 1 for the previous few many years (1984-2023), courtesy of previous Washington State Climatologist, Mark Albright. The linear trendline can also be on there (black/brown line).
A lot of ups and downs, however no pattern. Thus, local weather change is just not inflicting a major long-term decline in our snowpack.
An impartial examine on these numbers is to find out when the mountain snowpack has melted out. Clearly, with much less snowpack, the snow would soften out sooner. Beneath is the date of the melt-out at Steven Go (round 4000 ft).
If something it has gotten later.
Now don’t get me mistaken. The planet is slowly warming. Human emissions are part of that. And it will contribute to diminished snowpack over the long run. However at the moment, the impacts of worldwide warming on Northwest snowpack are fairly small.
Solutions that our drastically diminished snowpack this yr is because of local weather change are clearly false.
It’s a disgrace that the nationwide newspaper on report (the NY Instances) and our native paper (the Seattle Instances) can’t examine the scenario sufficiently to get the story proper.
Their readers are being poorly knowledgeable.
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Earlier than I neglect, Blissful New 12 months to all. If anybody missed my ATMS 101 class and wish to take an identical class by a superb colleague of thoughts (Professor Greg Hakim), you’ll be able to take it on-line or in particular person through the upcoming quarter. And if you’re over 60 you’ll be able to take it for little value utilizing the UW Entry program
