Final 12 months, Storm Hinnamnor — which brought about 36 fatalities — gained notoriety as the primary tremendous hurricane that developed at a excessive latitude as 25°N since Korea Meteorological Administration data started. This 12 months in Osong, Chungcheongbuk-do, an unanticipated intense downpour, brought about rivers to instantly overflow, leading to quite a few casualties. Earth’s rising temperatures are triggering unprecedented typhoons, torrential rains, and different excessive climate occasions. With out dependable predictions of local weather extremes prompted by international warming, mitigating the resultant damages stays a problem.
Professor Seung-Ki Min and Dr. Minkyu Lee, from the Division of Environmental Science and Engineering at Pohang College of Science and Know-how (POSTECH), have used a high-resolution local weather mannequin to conduct a pioneering quantitative evaluation of the impression of worldwide warming on typhoons making landfall on the Korean Peninsula. This analysis has been just lately printed in npj Local weather and Atmospheric Science.
Notably, international warming is giving approach to a surge in additional highly effective typhoons which preserve its depth longer and thereby trigger stronger harm. Correct hurricane prediction and harm discount necessitate higher understanding of the worldwide warming influences, for which local weather mannequin simulations with a km-scale decision are eccential. Nonetheless, research quantifying the anthropogenic warming contribution to typhoons affecting Korea, particularly analysis into the rainfall extremes accompanying typhoons, stay scant.
To beat this, the analysis crew designed a 3 km high-resolution regional local weather mannequin simulation to analyze the impression of worldwide warming on hurricane depth and excessive precipitation. 4 extraordinarily robust typhoons that made landfall on the Korean Peninsula between 2011 and 2020 have been chosen for simulation below present local weather situation and counterfactual situation with out human-induced warming. To cut back the uncertainties in regional sea floor temperature adjustments on account of international warming, they utilized various ocean warming patterns estimated from CMIP6multiple local weather fashions.
The findings present that accounting for international warming from human actions augmented general hurricane depth and precipitation. The analysis crew noticed that the impression of warming was pronounced extra strongly at most hurricane depth than the typical depth. This means extra frequent occurrences of highly effective tremendous typhoons over East Asia sooner or later. Moreover, the world uncovered to excessive rainfall generated by typhoons expanded 16 to 37 p.c on account of hotter local weather circumstances. Additional, the enlargement of utmost precipitation space is attributed to the strengthening of upward movement close to the hurricane middle and the rise in atmospheric water vapor because of the ocean floor warming.
Professor Min defined, “Our outcomes from high-resolution local weather mannequin simulations present conclusive proof that international warming has amplified the energy of current typhoons making landfall on the Korean Peninsula. Continued escalation of worldwide warming may result in stronger typhoons and extra intensive occurrences of rainfall extremes, demanding heightened sector-specific preparedness measures.”
This examine acquired assist from the Mid-Profession Researcher Program of the Nationwide Analysis Basis of Korea and the Korea Meteorological Administration Analysis and Growth Program on Local weather and Local weather Change Monitoring and Prediction Info Software Know-how.
