Salt River Venture (SRP) has grow to be one of many first U.S. utilities to shift from an Built-in Useful resource Plan (IRP) to an Built-in System Plan (ISP), a “holistic roadmap” that takes under consideration evolving energy system wants, vitality affordability, and carbon discount objectives.
The pioneering transfer by the general public energy entity that gives energy and water to greater than 1 million folks in central Arizona’s Phoenix metropolitan space was formally kicked off as SRP’s District Board of Administrators authorized energy system methods outlined within the ISP on Oct. 2.
The ISP is a long-term, “data-driven” planning course of that covers a interval between 2025 and 2035, SRP mentioned. Developed over the previous two years, it responds to a number of shifts affecting the ability sector associated to local weather change, expertise development, buyer objectives, and regional markets. A major driver, nevertheless, has been to ship a planning course of that collectively prioritizes SRP’s “affordability, reliability, sustainability, and buyer focus,” whereas bearing in mind its unprecedented urgency to fulfill a projected spike in demand.
“We’re projecting vitality demand will increase of greater than 25% by 2030,” famous Angie Bond-Simpson, SRP senior director of Useful resource Administration, on Monday, together with in Maricopa County, a key SRP service space, which leads the nation in inhabitants improve. “The [ISP] will strengthen and put together our grid for a future that’s largely powered by renewable vitality with out sacrificing the affordability and needed energy reliability to greatest serve one of many nation’s fastest-growing areas,” she mentioned.
A ‘Holistic’ System Planning Mannequin
In comparison with the conventional utility IRP course of—which entails periodic (each two to 5 years) and parallel planning for buyer applications, transmission and distribution, and new vitality assets —the ISP seems at planning holistically, focusing collectively on “affordability, reliability, sustainability, and a buyer focus,” SRP mentioned.
“Previously, IRPs guided SRP to plan long-term technology useful resource selections by conducting structured analyses assessing danger and uncertainty,” SRP famous when it first launched the ISP course of in 2021. “Given the numerous ongoing modifications within the energy sector, we should additionally adapt these conventional planning strategies to optimally develop a secure, dependable, reasonably priced, and environmentally accountable energy system. An built-in system planning strategy is critical to fulfill altering buyer wants, reminiscent of enabling two-way energy move for rooftop photo voltaic additions, managing charging of electrical autos, and to anticipate the ability system transition to a decrease carbon, more and more advanced grid.”
An vital aspect of the ISP is that it integrates stakeholder and buyer engagement from the system planning course of’s outset. The ISP is knowledgeable by views from Arizona universities, companies, environmental organizations, restricted revenue advocates, nonprofits, and extra, SRP mentioned. And whereas the trouble is constructed on bettering “transparency,” it additionally measures SRP’s success “by the eyes of its prospects,” it mentioned.
As considerably, the method additionally units out viable pathways to realize SRP’s 2035 carbon objective to scale back the quantity of carbon dioxide emitted by technology (per kWh) by 65% from 2005 ranges. Like IRPs, the ISP makes use of scenario-planning strategies to assist SRP higher perceive future uncertainties, prices, dangers, and tradeoffs. It has developed 4 eventualities that outline “a believable future state of the world round us, reflecting societal, technological, financial, environmental, and political tendencies and circumstances. These elements are outdoors of SRP’s management and mirror the unpredictable nature of the long run that must be accounted for in SRP’s planning actions,” the utility says.
A Strategic Method to Deal with Uncertainty
SRP and its stakeholders explored three strategic “approaches” to investigate the ISP within the spring of 2023, searching for to discover “clearly delineated key selections which will affect the long run energy system and to grasp how these methods carry out throughout the eventualities described above.”
The methods appeared at a “Expertise Impartial” strategy, which sought to develop future system plans on a technology-neutral and least-cost foundation; a “No New Fossil” strategy, wherein no new gasoline capability is built-in (although current gasoline would nonetheless be used); and a “Minimal Coal” strategy that seeks to scale back SRP’s coal technology “by testing operational modifications to SRP’s coal assets, together with seasonal operations and SRP coal exit by the tip of the research interval in 2035.”
Essentially the most vital concerns unveiled by the evaluation had been that SRP will want “vital funding over the subsequent decade” to strategically find and construct out new grid infrastructure to attach new assets and prospects whereas reaching reliability and sustainability objectives. That growth may require doubling or tripling useful resource capability inside an unprecedented 10-year timeframe, SRP mentioned. The evaluation additionally emphasised that new renewables and agency capability, significantly photo voltaic and wind, will likely be important parts of an economical portfolio, even underneath various gasoline costs and expertise prices.
In keeping with paperwork SRP made public on Monday, the ISP prepares so as to add 6 GW of photo voltaic capability and 1 GW of wind capability by 2035, alongside 2 GW of latest agency pure gasoline capability to exchange the retirement of 1.3 GW of coal energy. It additionally anticipates including 1.5 GW of latest battery assets and 1 GW of latest pumped-hydro capability, which may present long-duration vitality storage. “This new storage will likely be along with SRP’s current giant funding in storage assets, together with greater than 1,100 MW of battery initiatives to be on-line by the tip of 2024,” SRP famous. The ISP’s “strategic useful resource additions,” in the meantime, “contribute to a 56% total discount in SRP’s water utilized by energy producing assets from 2005 ranges,” it famous.
SRP notably additionally anticipates that electrification of end-uses, together with transportation and heating demand, will create “new alternatives” to shift vitality utilization to mid-day hours, serving to to combine extra renewables. The ISP evaluation confirmed that “SRP might want to evolve applications and value plans to shift shopper habits, and additional educate prospects on when to eat and when to preserve vitality.”
The evaluation additionally highlighted SRP’s want so as to add a whole lot of miles of latest or upgraded transmission strains and “almost double the variety of 500/230 kV transformers could possibly be wanted relative to right now.” It underscored that the situation of technology services will play a vital position within the growth of the transmission system. The ISP, SRP mentioned, outlines including 190 miles of latest or upgraded transmission strains.
Standing Challenges: Coverage, Rules
In keeping with the ISP evaluation, nevertheless, the area will inevitably face uncertainty associated to coverage and regulatory measures. If, for instance, the federal authorities “enacted a mandate for 85% CO2 reductions by 2035 (Sturdy Local weather Coverage), SRP would want to considerably speed up renewable & storage deployment,” it mentioned.
SRP will even grapple with future uncertainties round improvement, planning and allowing processes. These “may affect SRP’s capacity to develop on the tempo wanted to fulfill growing future load progress,” it famous. “With the quantity of future infrastructure and assets wanted, inside and exterior partnerships are going to be important to construct the long run system and preserve excessive buyer worth. “
The utility on Monday underscored an urgency to make sure modifications will likely be significant. This previous summer time, it marked its highest system peak demand of 8,163 MW on July 18, and on July 19 and 20, peaks reached over 8,000 MW, it famous. Throughout the high-demand interval, SRP deployed “all obtainable technology property together with reserve capability assets, and on sure days additionally bought vitality from the regional market as backup help,” it mentioned.
The entity’s efforts to ramp up its provide profile, nevertheless, has been challenged by citizen group opposition and regulatory wavering. In June, for instance, SRP received a hard-fought triumph in its bid to urgently develop its 575-MW Coolidge Station outdoors Phoenix with 12 fast-ramping single-cycle aeroderivative generators. The utility now says it expects six of the brand new models will likely be on-line previous to summer time 2026 and the remaining six, previous to summer time 2027.
Bobby Olsen, SRP’s chief Planning, Technique and Sustainability government, on Monday mentioned that SRP will proceed to report on its progress finishing up the ISP. It can additionally “discover revolutionary methods to decarbonize whereas main the business in investments in reasonably priced, dependable and sustainable energy technology,” he mentioned.
“With the Valley’s excessive temperatures, prospects can’t afford blackouts like a few of our neighboring states have skilled,” he famous. “SRP has offered water and energy to Arizona houses and companies for greater than 100 years. Our plans for a sustainable future will proceed this legacy with out compromising reliability and affordability,” he added.
—Sonal Patel is a POWER senior affiliate editor (@sonalcpatel, @POWERmagazine).
