EV Penetration in My Utah Neighborhood

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These of us who observe electrical automobile gross sales know that totally electrical automobiles accounted for greater than 80% of Norway’s auto gross sales in 2023, and that 100% electrical automobiles already make up greater than 24% of the full fleet there. We additionally know that in China, which has about half of all worldwide EV gross sales, gross sales penetration of BEVs was at about 25% in 2023. Nonetheless, EVs nonetheless made up lower than 5% of the full fleet in China by the tip of the 12 months.

In California, 25% of all vehicles offered within the final quarter of 2023 had been EVs — it’s the most important EV market within the US by far. Nonetheless, EVs made up simply ~4% of the full California mild automobile fleet on the finish of 2022. Though 1 in 4 new vehicles offered in California final quarter had been EVs, it’s going to take a very long time earlier than a major a part of the sunshine automobile fleet is EVs.

US plugin automobile gross sales had been solely ~8% in 2022 (9.4% in 2023) and the full share of the fleet was only one.3% by the tip of the 12 months.  Then again, older vehicles have a tendency to sit down within the storage whereas new ones are pushed extra. That is significantly true of EVs vs. fuel vehicles. In my home, everybody needs to drive the EV. The fuel automobile is certainly the final choice to be exercised.

How does this examine to EV penetration in my Northern Utah neighborhood?

Once I retired from NASA Goddard House Flight Heart in Maryland in 2005, we moved to Lindon, Utah, 30 miles south of Salt Lake Metropolis, to be close to our youngsters and grandchildren. We picked a home with a fantastic view of Utah Valley and Utah Lake. After residing for 65 years in areas the place Mormons (members of our religion) had been a tiny minority, we had been shocked to study that of the 120 households in our neighborhood, roughly 115 had been energetic Mormons and usually attended our ward (congregation) in our native chapel constructing. That is the story of EV uptake in our ward.

In 2014, 4 of our ward members, together with me, purchased Nissan LEAFs for the killer lease value of $200/month. Two of the members didn’t renew the leases. I, nevertheless, was hooked on EVs. I additionally leased a 2016 Nissan LEAF after which bought a 2018 Nissan LEAF.

1) On October 19, 2019, I made the large soar and traded the LEAF in for a white, dual-motor, 310-mile vary Tesla Mannequin 3 which I nonetheless personal.

2) At about the identical time, a member of our ward bought a crimson efficiency model of the 2019 Tesla Mannequin 3 (see image beneath).

The actual EV pioneer of the ward had began with an EV conversion of his Triumph sports activities automobile again in 2012, nevertheless it wasn’t very profitable. Extra not too long ago, he has bought a 3) Chevy Volt and a 4) Chevy Bolt (see image beneath).

5) Additionally, my neighbor simply throughout the road then bought a Chevy Volt.

For the following 3 years, nothing! Nonetheless, 12 months in the past, one of many early LEAF house owners in my ward bought 6) a yellow Ford Mustang Mach-E (see beneath). He likes the horny yellow shade however is kind of disillusioned as a result of he doesn’t suppose the expertise is kind of as much as the requirements of Tesla.

7) Then, the second early LEAF proprietor purchased the attractive Tesla Mannequin X proven beneath.

I additionally simply discovered that one other ward member bought 8) a fantastic white Rivian pickup truck. It’s the featured automobile on the Drop Detailing (Murray, Utah) web site. He made a cross-country journey not too long ago and was not impressed with the CCS fast-charging infrastructure at this level. The opposite day, 9) a fantastic crimson Tesla Mannequin X drove by my home. It was bought by one other of the 4 early LEAF house owners who had lastly determined to go completely electrical.

Popping out of our neighborhood church beginning a couple of weeks in the past, there was 10) a white Tesla Mannequin Y parked within the lot. (See image beneath.)

As you’ll be able to see, the dam has damaged and we’re effectively on our solution to EVs taking up the auto market in my neighborhood right here in Utah. Additionally, remarkably, all 4 ward members who tried EVs in 2014 are actually everlasting EV house owners. Sadly, it’s not practically sufficient, and on inversion days right here within the Wasatch Entrance area, the polluted air is lethal. (See image additional down beneath.) As not too long ago as 2021, there have been 62 obligatory unhealthy air alert days per 12 months on the Wasatch Entrance. Thus, even in case you don’t imagine or care about international warming, driving electrical is vital. Even in case you are conscious that many of the electrical energy in Utah nonetheless comes from burning coal, that coal is burned far means and we now have loads of motivation for switching to EVs right here.

That makes a complete of 10 EVs in my neighborhood (congregation) of 120 households. That might be an EV penetration of ~8%. In comparison with the US complete fleet penetration of 1.3%, we’re doing fairly effectively. Nonetheless, if we determine that every household owns a mean of two vehicles, that may drop the penetration to about 4% — about the identical as the entire state of California. It’s attention-grabbing that we’re doing as effectively right here in my neighborhood as California is doing, the state main the US in EV adoption by a big margin.

10 EVs within the neighborhood is an enormous deal! EVs are not simply owned by two of us EV evangelists going inexperienced. They’ve develop into mainstream and we could get many extra EV gross sales quickly within the neighborhood.

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