TVA must hit refresh! The ultimate EIS for changing the Kingston Fossil Plant inappropriately cites “provide chain disruptions” from 2022 — which have largely subsided — as rationale to construct 1,500 MW of fossil gasoline mixed cycle and combustion generators (and a 122 mile gasoline pipeline) slightly than changing the coal models with a number of photo voltaic plus storage tasks.
Bryan Jacob | March 8, 2024
| Photo voltaic, Tennessee
TVA must hit refresh! This isn’t a tough idea. I’ll even embody a hyperlink to the WikiHow web page on methods to do it. But when decision-makers fail to do this, the data they’re accessing from the web could also be outdated and their selections could also be misguided.
Photo voltaic vitality is a dynamic area. Rather a lot can change in a yr. Choices should be based mostly on present actuality and future projections. Pricing and availability of photo voltaic modules from 2022 are largely irrelevant for selections being made now.
TVA, nevertheless, has relied on outdated and inaccurate info in regards to the photo voltaic market in its Remaining Environmental Influence Assertion (Remaining EIS) simply launched final month for retiring and changing the Kingston Fossil Plant (9 coal-fired models in operation since 1954-1955). The Remaining EIS is the final step earlier than the TVA Board of Administrators comes to a decision on whether or not to interchange the coal plant with one other fossil gas or clear vitality. The TVA Board must require TVA workers to redo its evaluation of the 2 choices with correct info earlier than making a ultimate resolution.
TVA assessed two choices:
Various A: a combined-cycle (CC) gasoline unit paired with 16 dual-fuel Aeroderivative (Aero) combustion turbine (CT) models plus 3- to 4-MW photo voltaic on-site, a 100-MW battery vitality storage system, and transmission investments. These would all be on-site on the Kingston Reservation 35 miles west of Knoxville — and would require a 122-mile gasoline pipeline with a gasoline compressor station, which might go by way of Roane, Morgan, Fentress, Overton, Jackson, and Smith counties.
Various B: a number of photo voltaic era and vitality storage amenities at alternate areas, parts of which might be in Jap Tennessee — together with the required transmission.
SACE has recognized a elementary flaw within the EIS. I’d like to spotlight three examples from Part 1.2.3.3.1 (on pages 11-12 of the 845 web page doc) with emphasis added:
“The short-term results of the IRA [Inflation Reduction Act] to this point have resulted in elevated demand, larger costs, and a restricted provide of sources wanted for renewable applied sciences (Photo voltaic Power Industries Affiliation [SEIA] 2022).”
“Photo voltaic era and vitality storage amenities would require the event of a number of photo voltaic producing amenities and due to this fact are topic to market elements, corresponding to variable prices, provide chain disruptions, and restricted availability of supplies. Photo voltaic panels are primarily produced abroad, and, right now, the U.S. has little aggressive onshore photo voltaic manufacturing functionality (USDOE 2022, SEIA 2022).“
“The elevated demand and subsequent enhance in price and restricted availability of sources has resulted in a reversal of a decades-old development of reducing photo voltaic costs, and plenty of photo voltaic tasks being postponed or canceled because of this. Whereas the IRA incentivizes the transition of the photo voltaic provide chain to the U.S., it’s projected that it’s going to take 3 to five years for the home provide chain to mature and ease the present constraints on the photo voltaic trade (SEIA 2022).”
A standard aspect throughout these three assertions is that all of them cite info from the Photo voltaic Power Industries Affiliation from 2022. Tracing that result in web page 828 of the Remaining EIS doc (Literature Cited), we discover:
Photo voltaic Power Industries Affiliation (SEIA). 2022. Photo voltaic Market Perception Report 2022 Q2. Accessible at [URL]: https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2022-q2. (Accessed December 2023).
SEIA is a good trade-association and it, no-doubt, reported the availability chain disruptions in 2022. So did SACE. However SEIA updates that Photo voltaic Market Perception Report on a quarterly foundation. By the point TVA accessed that Q2 2022 report in December 2023, SEIA would have ready six extra current/up to date variations.
The This autumn 2023 model was launched on December 7, 2023. And one of many issues they categorical is that:
“The sturdy deployment development in Q3 2023 has largely been on account of module provide chain stabilization inside the previous yr.” U.S. Photo voltaic Market Perception: December 7, 2023 [emphasis added]
The truth is, the US put in extra photo voltaic in 2023 than ever earlier than.
The This autumn 2023 Photo voltaic Market Insights report goes on to say {that a} mixture of things:
“pushed US module costs down 10-15% over the identical timeframe as provide constraints have alleviated.” [emphasis added]
And, as for the declare that “the U.S. has little aggressive onshore photo voltaic manufacturing functionality” and that “it is going to take 3 to five years for the home provide chain to mature”… properly, Qcells in Dalton, Georgia, simply south of the TVA service territory, has change into the most important photo voltaic manufacturing facility within the western hemisphere.
The Remaining EIS cowl sheet (web page i) estimates that preparation of the report price $2.2 million. Wow! For that type of cash, they need to be capable of get correct, up-to-date info. The TVA Board ought to insist on it. In any other case, the Board runs the danger of constructing a choice based mostly on unhealthy intel that saddles the folks of the Tennessee Valley with costly and soiled vitality for the following era.
TVA can do higher.
#CleanUpTVA
