The variety of warmth pump installations by December 2023 was lower than half of deliberate projections; uncertainty concerning the function of hydrogen in house heating is hampering funding and efficient planning, a brand new Nationwide Audit Workplace (NAO) report has discovered.
House heating represents 18% of UK greenhouse gasoline emissions. Authorities sees warmth pumps as the primary know-how to decarbonise the UK’s 28 million houses over the subsequent decade.
The federal government needs to see 600,000 warmth pumps put in per 12 months by 2028 – an eleven-fold improve on 55,000 warmth pump gross sales in 20224. By 2035, authorities needs to see as much as 1.6 million warmth pumps being put in yearly.
However the impartial public spending watchdog says the federal government’s assumptions about ranges of client demand and producer provide5 are optimistic. The federal government’s flagship Boiler Improve Scheme has additionally underperformed, putting in simply 18,900 warmth pumps between Could 2022 and December 2023. DESNZ had anticipated the scheme would ship 50,000 installations by this level.
A key challenge behind lower-than-expected warmth pump uptake is their value to make use of and set up. DESNZ delayed its deliberate work to scale back working prices, by rebalancing gasoline and electrical energy costs, for instance by shifting some levies and expenses from electrical energy to gasoline payments6. The division says that value rebalancing stays a vital coverage however is difficult. Warmth pump set up prices additionally fell extra slowly than DESNZ hoped.
The NAO additionally discovered that DESNZ has no overarching long-term plan to deal with the low ranges of consciousness amongst households in regards to the steps required to decarbonise house heating.7
In response to the Boiler Improve Scheme’s underperformance, DESNZ elevated the grant obtainable to individuals changing boilers from £5,000–£6,000 to £7,500, which has enabled some power suppliers to supply warmth pump installations beginning at £500. Functions to the scheme in January 2024 elevated by practically 40% in contrast with January 2023, although extra information is required to find out whether or not the change is sustained.
DESNZ is contemplating what function hydrogen will play in decarbonising house heating. The division has up to now indicated that it’ll have a restricted function, however it should formally take a call in 2026.
Trials of hydrogen schemes meant to supply proof to help the federal government’s choices have been delayed or cancelled. Stakeholders advised the NAO ongoing uncertainty might sluggish progress by limiting the power of native authorities and business to plan and make investments.
Elements of the gasoline community could should be decommissioned if pure gasoline is now not in use and hydrogen is confined to sure areas of the nation.8 DESNZ is working to develop its understanding of the results for gasoline networks of decarbonising house heating and the way decommissioning might be funded.
The NAO recommends authorities considers offering extra certainty on the function of hydrogen in house heating earlier than 2026.
To enhance its transparency and accountability on the rollout of warmth pumps, the NAO says authorities ought to report its progress yearly to Parliament.
The general public spending watchdog is recommending authorities develops an overarching long-term client engagement plan for decarbonising house heating. And it additionally recommends that DESNZ accelerates its work to rebalance the price of power to enhance warmth pump uptake.
Gareth Davies, the pinnacle of the NAO, commented: “Authorities wants to have interaction each family to attain its goal to decarbonise house heating as a part of the transition to web zero. DESNZ’s progress in making households conscious and inspiring them to change to low-carbon options has been slower than anticipated.”
“DESNZ should draw on its expertise up to now to make sure its mixture of incentives, engagement and rules addresses the limitations to progress in its present programme of labor.”
You’ll be able to learn the total report right here.
