From pv journal Germany
Every week in the past, Rystad Vitality corrected its earlier statements concerning the stock of Chinese language module imports downwards by 60% and assumed 40 GW inventories within the EU on the finish of 2023.
Quote: “The market has reacted and firms have considerably lowered their orders,” mentioned a Rystad analyst in an article printed by pv journal on September 29. Counting on export knowledge for modules from China to Europe, he mentioned that stock ranges are stagnating at round 40 GW. Producers wouldn’t flood the European market with out wholesalers and mission builders inserting corresponding orders, he additionally mentioned.
This week, nonetheless, Rystad instructed pv journal that there are abruptly 80 GW within the EU warehouses, and Rystad assumes that there could possibly be 100 GW by the tip of 2023.
Rystad mentioned that the brand new numbers are based mostly on new figures which have solely been out there this week, with the assumed decline having not occurred in any case.
Bang! From 40 GW to 80 GW inside six weeks due to supposedly new numbers.
And what occurs subsequent is now not comprehensible to me.
From January 2023 to the tip of August 2023, round 78 GW had been exported from China to the EU. That is proper – the official export figures from China are confirming this and it’s no secret. The 78 GW most likely additionally consists of not less than 5 GW to six GW of OEM modules which are offered below labels from “EU producers” however come solely from China.
Anybody can simply verify this right here for the previous couple of years (csv file, scroll to EU):
https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/china-solar-pv-exports/
As I’ve already described a number of instances, on the finish of 2022, with an EU market of 46 GW, we had a “regular” stock of two to 3 months, primarily round 8 GW, plus round 33 GW.
The way to calculate “module surplus” with a easy Excel desk
That is how the yr 2023 started, and from right here on, it’s a easy Excel desk with which you’ll calculate the “module surplus.”
On this desk, you’ll be aware the official export from China to the EU with a delay of round two months, the EU market growth as much as the time limit into account, and the “regular storage cycle” of two to 3 months till the modules then seem within the set up statistics.
Primarily based on my lengthy photo voltaic expertise, these are regular numbers on the best way from the port to the client and the finished set up or its official registration.
With an EU market of 60 GW to 114 GW anticipated for 2023, 10 GW to 19 GW can be the anticipated new regular for module inventories.
It is only a completely different dimension than earlier than, and it’s important to get used to 10 GW to 19 GW as a “regular” warehouse move – till not too long ago, your complete EU market was that huge per yr. However now, it’s 20 instances bigger than it was within the darkest days of the anti-dumping duties.
I am shocked at how the analysts at Rystad Vitality are continuing. It has been simple all yr lengthy to take the Chinese language export knowledge, add “regular” warehouse move, after which observe the EU installations carefully. There was “no new knowledge in a single day,” solely the export knowledge from August of 8 GW, after 7.2 GW in July, and 11.6 GW in Could. This does not appear to be a shock to me.
In Germany, PV capability is rising significantly, as reported each month by the Federal Community Company. And in Germany alone, the market is rising by an unimaginable 85% in comparison with 2022, and I hear related issues from many different international locations. Due to this fact, EU progress from 46 GW in 2022 to effectively over 80 GW in 2023 is solely doable.
I do not know precisely the place we stand with EU installations on the finish of September. However it’s very simple with Excel to enter 60 GW, 80 GW, and 114 GW as an EU marketplace for your complete yr 2023, scale it to the interval as much as the tip of October utilizing the rule of three, and calculate the export knowledge plus warehousing towards it.
The outcomes for the EU warehouses might be estimated based mostly on the tip of October. By then, all the exporters from August could have arrived right here, which means 78 GW since January. These are the outcomes:
With a 60 GW market within the EU in 2023:
“Regular” stock: 10 GW
Module consumption in 2023, as much as and together with October: 50 GW
“Extra” stock, together with extra from 2022: 59 GW
With an 80 GW market within the EU in 2023:
“Regular” stock: 13 GW
Module consumption in 2023, as much as and together with October: 67 GW
“Extra” stock, together with extra from 2022: 39 GW
With a 114 gigawatt peak market within the EU in 2023:
“Regular” stock: 19 GW
Module consumption in 2023, as much as and together with October: 95 GW
“Extra” stock, together with extra from 2022: 5 GW
I count on not less than one thing fairly easy like this from a big analyst agency like Rystad.
One might additionally say: “It is the actual dimension of the EU set up market.”
As a result of that is what it is all about in the long run: Have producers, retailers, and others overestimated the EU market? Are there plenty of items there? Or do they not have that, and in some instances, there’s little or no product?
In any case, it has nothing to do with “dumping” and it’s important to have robust particular pursuits with a view to derive accusations of dumping from the shares. These would then apply in the identical solution to OEM modules imported from China, in addition to to photo voltaic cells from China.
Ultimately, all of the magnificent progress of the EU photo voltaic market is “brutally” excellent news for local weather safety within the EU and your complete world.
Writer: Karl-Heinz Remmers
Karl-Heinz Remmers, a photo voltaic entrepreneur since 1992, initially targeted on photo voltaic system planning, set up, and photo voltaic thermal collector manufacturing. In 1996, he based Solarpraxis, which later established pv journal Group. The corporate now focuses on PV mission growth. Extra particulars: https://www.remmers.photo voltaic/ueber-mich/
The views and opinions expressed on this article are the writer’s personal, and don’t essentially mirror these held by pv journal.
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