By David Wojick
Failure mode evaluation is a normal engineering apply. It means determining the fundamental methods a system can fail, every method being a mode of failure. When you perceive these failure modes, you are able to do issues like look ahead to them, or put together for them, or take steps to maintain them from occurring.
Means again after I was a junior engineer, I did mathematical failure mode evaluation for giant dams. There have been simply 3 to five primary modes, relying on the design. Earth dams had greater than concrete ones, however I digress.
We now have repeated, even pressing, warnings that the electrical energy grid is more and more vulnerable to failure. A few of these warnings have come from individuals who truly oversee the grid, together with FERC, NERC, and the impartial system operators (ISOs). My fellow skeptics have additionally been vocal about this rising menace of catastrophe.
Everybody talks about blackouts, however I’ve not seen an in depth evaluation of the varied methods these would possibly happen. I believe there are a number of totally different primary methods, every calling for a distinct strategy. So listed here are some starter ideas.
To start with, there are deliberate rolling blackouts versus uncontrolled blackouts. ISOs and utilities might effectively have inside plans, or maybe guidelines, for operating rolling blackouts. In that case, it will be very useful to know what these are. For instance, emergency service teams in any respect ranges of presidency might have rolling blackouts response plans.
Uncontrolled blackouts could also be unpredictable, however they’ll nonetheless be deliberate for to a point. I stay method out within the nation, and we get blackouts a number of occasions a yr, so we have now a well-prepared routine for coping with them if they don’t final too lengthy.
Of particular significance are the dimensions and period of blackouts, as each options deeply have an effect on planning. Ought to we count on much more small blackouts or only a few extra massive ones? How about actually massive ones, a couple of of which have occurred previously?
It additionally issues how sizzling or chilly it’s, particularly for giant, long-lived blackouts. Extreme chilly is admittedly harmful. The Texas catastrophe killed lots of people, and PJM virtually went that method final Christmas.
The primary query is how a lot failure mode evaluation can already be accomplished utilizing current laptop fashions? The ISOs and utilities do loads of modeling. For instance, the ISOs already can decide what system upgrades will probably be wanted earlier than a brand new giant generator could be related to the grid. The wind and photo voltaic folks complain about this as a result of it generally makes their distant tasks very costly.
If the ISOs can try this type of detailed circulation evaluation, they ought to have the ability to see the place issues are prone to break and what which may do to the system. I’m reminded of The Wichita Lineman line saying, “if it snows that stretch down south won’t ever stand the pressure”.
It could be that they’re already doing this form of failure mode evaluation; they simply don’t wish to inform us about it, lest it fear us. However given all of the warnings, we clearly want to fret and to take steps to handle that fear.
It additionally could also be true that they can not do the sorts of failure mode evaluation I’m describing. The rising menace is new, in any case, so the software program merely might not exist. I appear to recall each the New England ISO and PJM saying they actually couldn’t consider the influence on the reliability of this tried transition.
If that is true, then given the massive quantities of potential harm, together with deaths, we ought to be growing that software program as quick as doable. Not figuring out the influence of the near-term transition on reliability is a real emergency. We could also be flying blind into the wall of impossibility.
There may be one other type of failure that additionally must be addressed, particularly wholesale energy value spikes. We’ve already had a couple of of those and are nonetheless struggling to determine how one can pay for them. When unit energy costs go from tens of {dollars} to 1000’s, there’s loads of harm, even whether it is fiscal, not bodily.
FERC and NERC reliability requirements require varied types of evaluation. Publicly accessible failure mode evaluation ought to be amongst them. Imprecise warnings should not adequate.
Writer
David Wojick, Ph.D. is an impartial analyst working on the intersection of science, know-how and coverage. For origins see http://www.stemed.information/engineer_tackles_confusion.html For over 100 prior articles for CFACT see http://www.cfact.org/writer/david-wojick-ph-d/ Accessible for confidential analysis and consulting.
