Photo voltaic PV Installations Will Attain Up To 660 Gigawatts In 2024

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Bernreuter Analysis: Low module worth will gas demand within the second half of the 12 months

Würzburg, Germany — World photovoltaic (PV) installations will land in a variety of 600 to 660 gigawatts-direct present (GW_dc) in 2024, in accordance with the most recent evaluation from polysilicon market knowledgeable Bernreuter Analysis. “As soon as market contributors come to the conclusion that the crash of the photo voltaic module worth has reached its backside, demand will speed up,” says Johannes Bernreuter, Head of Bernreuter Analysis and writer of the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 report.

Prime 6 photo voltaic module suppliers goal for 40% progress price

Bernreuter’s new forecast is supported by the cargo targets of the world’s high six photo voltaic module suppliers for 2024. On common, Jinko, Longi, Trina, JA Photo voltaic, Tongwei and Canadian Photo voltaic goal for a progress price of 40%. Based mostly on world PV installations of 444 GW_dc in 2023, this price would lead to a newly put in capability of 622 GW_dc in 2024.

“Even when the main gamers achieve market share as Tier-2 and Tier-3 producers wrestle within the present low-price surroundings, it’s possible that new PV installations will exceed 600 GW_dc this 12 months,” says Bernreuter. After many of the high six suppliers remained behind their cargo targets in 2023, the analyst assumes that they’ve been extra cautious with their targets for 2024, which leaves room for upside potential.

Indicators on the availability facet level to a variety of 630 GW_dc to 660 GW_dc

“On the availability facet, all indicators level to the higher half of our forecast vary,” explains Bernreuter. “I’m optimistic that demand will catch up within the second half of the 12 months, fueled by the record-low module worth degree.”

World PV installations of 630 GW_dc to 660 GW_dc would even high the excessive situation of 620 GW_dc featured in Bernreuter’s Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027 report. “Our new evaluation confirms the extra aggressive forecast method we now have adopted within the report,” concludes Bernreuter. “With a market share of greater than 50%, China will proceed to drive world PV installations ahead.”

About Bernreuter Analysis — Bernreuter Analysis was based in 2008 by Johannes Bernreuter, probably the most respected photovoltaic journalists in Germany, to publish world polysilicon market stories. As early as 2001, Bernreuter authored his first evaluation of an upcoming polysilicon bottleneck and new manufacturing processes. Since publishing its first report in 2010, Bernreuter Analysis has gained a status for offering essentially the most complete and correct polysilicon stories available on the market.

Obtain as PDF.

Press launch from Bernreuter Analysis.