The USDA elevated its forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel manufacturing in its newest World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates report, launched Oct. 12. The estimate for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel manufacturing was additionally revised up.
U.S. soybean manufacturing for 2023-’24 is forecast at 4.1 billion bushels, down 42 million on decrease yields. Harvested space is unchanged at 82.8 million acres. The soybean yield is at present projected at 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels from the September WASDE. The most important manufacturing adjustments are for Kansas, Michigan, and Nebraska.
With decrease manufacturing partly offset by larger starting shares, provides are decreased 24 million bushels. Soybean exports are decreased 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion with elevated competitors from South America. Soybean crush is projected at 2.3 billion bushels, up 10 million, pushed by larger soybean meal exports and soybean oil home demand. Soybean oil home use is raised in step with a rise for 2022-’23. With decrease exports partly offset by elevated crush, ending shares are unchanged from final month at 220 million bushels.
The USDA at present predicts 12.8 billion kilos of soybean oil will go to biofuel manufacturing for 2023-’24, up from final month’s estimate of 12.5 billion kilos. The company additionally elevated its estimate for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel to 12.1 billion kilos, up from the September estimate of 11.8 billion kilos. Roughly 10.379 billion kilos of soybean oil went to biofuel manufacturing for 2021-’22.
The U.S. season-average soybean value for 2023-’24 is unchanged at $12.90 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil costs are unchanged at $380 per brief ton and 63 cents per pound, respectively.
Internationally, anticipated soybean manufacturing is lowered 1 million tons to 11 million tons in India, as near-record rains in September together with traditionally dry circumstances in August negatively impacted yields. International 2023-’24 soybean exports are lowered 200,000 tons to 168.2 million tons with decrease exports anticipated for the U.S., partially offset by larger shipments for Brazil. Soybean imports are lowered for Pakistan. International soybean crush is elevated 800,000 tons to 328.5 million tons on larger crush for China and the U.S. China’s crush is raised 1 million tons to 97 million tons in step with larger crush and home soybean meal demand within the prior advertising yr. Partly offsetting is decrease crush for India and Pakistan on decrease provides. International soybean ending shares are lowered 3.6 million tons to 115.6 million, primarily on decrease shares for China, Brazil and India.
