A brand new U.S. president will probably be inaugurated in lower than 5 months. Polls present the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to be very shut, with probably just a few swing states deciding the election. Whereas power coverage might not be a deciding issue for a lot of Individuals in selecting who they may vote for, it is vitally vital to energy business professionals.
With that in thoughts, Mary Anne Sullivan, senior counsel with the legislation agency Hogan Lovells, and Megan Ridley-Kaye, a companion with Hogan Lovells, have been interviewed as friends on The POWER Podcast to debate how the candidates would possibly differ of their areas of focus after the election. Among the many most pronounced variations is the rhetoric the 2 would possibly espouse.
“A Trump administration, I believe, would discuss much more about power safety, power independence, and the must be pleasant to American-made fossil fuels,” Sullivan mentioned. “A Harris administration, I assume, will observe within the footsteps of the Biden administration and concentrate on the necessity to reply to local weather change and construct on what have actually been unprecedented accomplishments underneath the Infrastructure Funding and Jobs Act and the IRA [Inflation Reduction Act],” she mentioned.
Though a Trump administration would possibly search to repeal all or no less than components of the IRA, Sullivan thought that might be exhausting to attain. “I believe current indications are that it [the IRA] has now a good bit of assist in Congress,” she mentioned. Ridley-Kaye agreed. “Clearly, key to what occurs there [the fate of the IRA] is what occurs in Congress,” she mentioned. “It appears more and more unlikely that will probably be repealed.”
And, whereas the federal government has made main investments that assist power and energy tasks, personal events have invested some huge cash too. At this level within the cycle, nonetheless, Ridley-Kaye recommended a few of her purchasers are starting to take a wait-and-see method, particularly if undertaking economics will not be viable with out tax credit. Nonetheless, many different traders are unworried about the potential for coverage adjustments. “We do have a big group of purchasers that might say, ‘The prepare has left the station. Company America expects the tax credit. There’s no manner that they might be taken away,’ ” Ridley-Kaye mentioned.
Offshore wind is among the many areas the place the candidates’ opinions differ. “Donald Trump has been clear for a really very long time that he doesn’t like wind energy, and notably, doesn’t like offshore wind,” mentioned Sullivan. “I believe Kamala Harris acknowledges that offshore wind is especially precious due to its proximity to inhabitants facilities.”
On a extra basic degree, Sullivan would anticipate extra “activism” from a Harris administration, whereas a Trump administration can be extra market oriented. Regarding electrical autos (EVs), she mentioned Trump has been considerably combined on his emotions towards them. “He might or might not be pleasant to that [vehicle electrification], however I anticipate a Harris administration will probably be all in on the transition to EVs,” Sullivan mentioned.
Environmental coverage shifts appear to be the norm when administrations change. “EPA [Environmental Protection Agency] regulation of energy plant emissions has been the final word political soccer by no less than the final three administrations, and I believe we’ll see huge variations there,” mentioned Sullivan.
In January, the Biden administration introduced a short lived pause on pending selections on exports of liquefied pure fuel (LNG) to non-free commerce settlement international locations till the Division of Vitality may replace the underlying analyses for authorizations. Sullivan mentioned that might nearly actually finish if Trump wins the election. Whereas, Harris would possibly push to wrap up the evaluation, however she wouldn’t possible be as fast to easily restore previous practices with out additional reflection.
In the meantime, there are some areas the place the candidates might even see eye to eye. “Regardless of which ones is elected, I believe they may each acknowledge the necessity for extra energy transmission and extra energy era,” mentioned Sullivan. “Though the Biden administration has talked a great sport about greening energy era, they’ve additionally very a lot pursued an all-of-the-above method to era assets. And I’d anticipate that to proceed in a Harris administration, simply because there are such a lot of new calls for for electrical energy—the information facilities, AI [artificial intelligence], automobile electrification, the kind of ‘electrify all the pieces’ motion that some folks discuss,” she mentioned.
Two different areas the place Trump and Harris would possibly assist related insurance policies are on nuclear energy, and carbon seize and storage. “The 2 administrations might need totally different motivations for pursuing that, however I believe both one will assist additional know-how growth there,” Sullivan supposed.
Sullivan would anticipate a extra light-handed method to regulation underneath a Trump administration, particularly, as utilized to allowing power infrastructure tasks. “However that extra light-handed regulation on allowing helps the carbon-free energy tasks as a lot because the carbon-intensive energy tasks. It cuts each methods,” she mentioned.
Relying on how the election performs out, the power and energy panorama may change in a short time. “Trump’s group appears way more prepared to maneuver on coverage than it did when he ran the final time. I believe they’re occupied with it upfront. They’re constructing a desired set of insurance policies,” Sullivan mentioned. “I do anticipate them to be extra prepared to maneuver on their coverage targets.”
To listen to the total interview with Sullivan and Ridley-Kaye, which incorporates extra about tax credit, deal-making, fossil gas exploration and manufacturing, electrical grid reliability and resilience, interstate power commerce and regulation, and extra, hearken to The POWER Podcast. Click on on the SoundCloud participant under to hear in your browser now or use the next hyperlinks to succeed in the present web page in your favourite podcast platform:
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—Aaron Larson is POWER’s government editor (@AaronL_Power, @POWERmagazine).
