A Harris-Walz administration would broaden on the Biden-Harris report of addressing the local weather disaster and selling social justice.
“Drill, child, drill” could be the core of a Trump-Vance power coverage, mixed with an “America first” method that – once more – sees the US withdrawing from multilateral cooperation to mitigate the worldwide local weather disaster.
Whereas the affect of the local weather disaster mounts irrespective of who wins the White Home, there shall be totally different winners and losers from an funding perspective relying on the result.
Given the razor’s edge nature of the race, companies and buyers ought to put together now for both eventuality.
Trump 1.0: Monetary return over environmental safety
Finding out the Trump-Pence environmental observe report portends what’s going to come from Trump-Vance.
Trump’s first time period weighted limiting US federal engagement. Most famously, he withdrew from the Paris Local weather Settlement and repealed the Clear Energy Plan, which had allowed US states to set their very own emissions requirements.
The administration lowered the Environmental Safety Company’s (EPA) authority and funding, and put in management at EPA with said hostility to local weather motion, all of which led to a reducing capability for oversight over the environmental affect of business enlargement.
His administration weighted company pursuits and short-term monetary returns over environmental safety and local weather motion, rolling again quite a few regulatory actions, together with formidable gasoline effectivity requirements for autos.
The Trump administration additionally opened-up beforehand protected areas for oil and fuel drilling, together with nationwide monuments and wildlife refuges.
Trump 2.0: Repeat and rollback
If re-elected, Trump would revert to this playbook, implementing the precept of growth of fossil fuels over renewable power sources resembling photo voltaic and wind.
He would additionally work to reverse the various legal guidelines and laws issued in the course of the Biden-Harris administration.
Expedited approval for pipelines and infrastructure initiatives – a aim of his – would result in enterprise alternatives in these sectors, whatever the affect of elevated drilling on ecosystems and wildlife habitats.
Funding would shift in the direction of conventional power firm applied sciences, resembling carbon seize and storage and different fossil fuel-based analysis and growth, quite than renewable power innovation.
The reversal or modification of the Biden Administration’s electrical automobile insurance policies and incentives would sluggish the transition to sustainable transportation. The rollback of different environmental laws would proceed, together with local weather disclosures.
A Trump 2.0 administration may hinder if not eradicate sure climate-related provisions within the Inflation Discount Act (IRA), together with tax credit for clear power initiatives, grants for local weather resilience and adaptation efforts, and incentives for sustainable agriculture practices.
Moreover, the latest overturning of “Chevron deference” – a authorized precedent that beforehand deferred to federal businesses’ interpretations of environmental legal guidelines – would lead to extra, and extra profitable, authorized challenges to local weather laws, doubtlessly making a extra unpredictable and restrictive atmosphere for local weather coverage implementation.
Biden-Harris – Sustainability via carrots and sticks
The Biden-Harris administration has produced probably the most formidable programme in American historical past to facilitate and put money into the power transition. Its broad-based method has centered on advancing clear power together with the promotion of employment in a brand new power economic system, in addition to environmental justice.
The IRA produced unprecedented monetary investments and incentives to speed up a shift to electrification via battery manufacturing, hydrogen manufacturing, photo voltaic, and wind power. For example, the allocation of US$20 billion from the Greenhouse Gasoline Discount Fund for renewables initiatives demonstrates a dedication to supporting the power transition.
Past US borders, along with the energetic function the present administration has performed in advancing international cooperation via COPs and different fora, the Indo-Pacific Financial Framework (IPEF), a 14-member initiative launched by President Biden, introduced collectively the Asia Pacific area to advertise cooperation on clear power and decarbonisation and assist the event of fresh tech and infrastructure in accomplice international locations.
By means of IPEF, the US develops and implements insurance policies and practices to advertise a regional transition to a clear power economic system, together with the event of renewable power sources, power effectivity measures, and electrical automobile adoption.
Candidate Trump vowed to finish US participation in IPEF ought to he be re-elected.
Harris-Walz = Biden-Harris +
An American presidency beneath Kamala-Harris would proceed and broaden the Biden-Harris administration’s dedication to addressing the local weather disaster and selling social justice, each at dwelling and overseas, resembling staying engaged within the COP, the place new nationally decided contributions (NDCs) – that’s, how particular person international locations do their bit to chop emissions – shall be decided subsequent fall in Brazil.
For positive, a Harris-Walz Administration would construct on the local weather achievements of the Biden-Harris administration, possible strengthening Paris Settlement commitments and enacting extra formidable emissions discount targets.
Her administration would advocate for rising funding in clear power, inexperienced infrastructure, and sustainable applied sciences whereas selling environmental justice and fairness.
This method would contain creating a nationwide local weather resilience plan to guard weak communities from the results of local weather change and investing in efforts that may generate clear power jobs.
Supporting local weather change analysis, growth, and innovation would even be a key facet of Harris’ environmental coverage, making certain that the US stays forward of the curve in addressing the local weather disaster.
One of many greatest variations between the 2 candidates is {that a} President Harris would maintain the US engaged globally on many fronts.
With COP30 being a vital milestone the place new NDCs are due, sustained US engagement could be essential in driving international ambition and making certain a coordinated response to the local weather disaster.
US and China cooperating on local weather has been a key variable in addressing the local weather disaster globally, and extra more likely to be current in a Harris administration than a Trump sequel.
Mom Nature doesn’t care who wins the election
To the planet, it doesn’t matter if the sitting vp or the previous president wins.
The local weather disaster will worsen regardless, with devastating penalties for the atmosphere, human rights and international stability.
We are going to witness extra frequent and extreme excessive climate occasions, rising sea ranges, financial disruption, and melting of polar ice caps and glaciers irrespective of who wins the election in November.
Governments and residents globally will proceed demanding local weather motion and sustainability from companies and buyers whoever is sitting within the White Home, and the technology of enterprise leaders in place now will proceed to see the worth of innovation and resilience that local weather motion can ship.
Companies incorporating technological developments resembling changing their operations and power consumption to renewable power sources and clear applied sciences shall be financially rewarded.
Boards will proceed to think about whether or not the businesses they oversee are creating and delivering methods to handle their enterprise’ local weather affect.
And so they might want to undertake situation planning to indicate how they are going to adapt to a warming planet.
Whereas all of us watch the US election intently from a sustainability perspective, companies and buyers have to act now to arrange for the monetary impacts the local weather disaster will inevitably carry.
Aron Cramer is president and CEO of BSR, a sustainable enterprise community and consultancy, and Steven Okun is CEO of APAC Advisors (Singapore) and a senior advisor to BSR.
