The Week That Was: 2023-10-14 (October 14, 2023)
Delivered to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Undertaking
Quote of the Week: “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.” ‒ Carl Sagan
Variety of the Week: 41 Occasions better
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Undertaking (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW discusses what Europe calls Internet Zero, and what Washington calls the Inexperienced New Deal. Michael Kelly of the UK offers an evaluation of the prices and feasibility for the US to implement the present power transition undertaken by Washington. This fall, there are few alarming experiences on Western wildfires or droughts. On the suggestion of reader Bud Bromley, TWTW addresses a few of the issues of fixing definitions in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.
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Inexperienced New Deal: The US authorities is implementing what could be referred to as the Inexperienced New Deal – an power transformation from fossil fuels to so-called renewable (unreliable) power sources. But TWTW has seen no report from a authorities company or US scientific group with a rigorous examine of what’s required, what technological limitations exist, and what prices are concerned. In keeping with an article printed in The Telegraph, UK on October 11:
“Michael Kelly is Emeritus Professor of Engineering on the College of Cambridge. He’s a Fellow of the Royal Society, of the Royal Academy of Engineering, of the Royal Society of New Zealand, of the Institute of Physics and of the Establishment of Engineering and Expertise, in addition to Senior Member of the Institute of Digital and Electrical Engineering within the USA. He’s a trustee of the World Warming Coverage Basis.”
Paul Homewood reproduces many of the article, which gives the most effective evaluation of the feasibility and prices of Washington’s power goals that TWTW has seen. Homewood’s submit is copied with boldface added by TWTW. Be aware that Kelley refers to Internet Zero, whereas Washington calls Internet Zero the Inexperienced New Deal. Be forewarned, Kelly spent his total skilled life as a extremely competent engineer. As such, his essay could embody effectively established engineering ideas that fellow engineers and others aware of such career writing clearly perceive, however the lack of rationalization could confuse some readers. Kelly states:
“Three very giant, interrelated, and multidisciplinary engineering initiatives will should be accomplished. Transport may have been electrified. Industrial and home warmth may have been electrified. The electrical energy sector – technology, transmission, and distribution – may have been tremendously expanded with a purpose to deal with the primary two initiatives and may have ceased to make use of fossil fuels.
I’ve had an extended profession in industrial and educational engineering, and not too long ago retired as Professor of Expertise in electrical engineering at Cambridge College. I’ve spent a while trying into the feasibility of those concepts, and these are the information.
In the intervening time the USA makes use of on common 7,768 trillion British Thermal Models of power each month, most of which is provided by burning fossil gasoline both straight for warmth or transport, or not directly to generate electrical energy.
As a result of an inside combustion engine converts the power saved in its gasoline into transport movement with an effectivity of about 30 per cent, whereas electrical motors are greater than 90 per cent environment friendly at utilizing power saved in a battery, we might want to enhance the US electrical energy provide by about 25 per cent to take care of transport within the USA at in the present day’s stage. Let’s assume that changing in the present day’s fossil-powered autos and trains with electrical ones will price not more than we might have spent changing them anyway: it’s not likely true however the distinction is small in comparison with the remainder of this. I ought to be aware nevertheless {that a} small a part of in the present day’s transport power is used for aviation and transport, that are a lot tougher to affect than floor transport, however we’ll ignore that for now.
Subsequent, we have to electrify all the warmth. If this warmth was offered by strange electrical heaters, we would want an additional electrical sector equal to the scale of in the present day’s. But when we largely use air-source and ground-source warmth pumps and assume a coefficient of efficiency of three:1 – optimistic, however not wildly unreasonable – then we solely want new grid capability equal to 35 per cent of the scale of the current grid for the warmth process.
To date, the grid in 2050 will should be greater than 60 per cent larger than its current measurement. We additionally must work on the buildings. US constructing inventory is made up of almost 150 million housing models, industrial and industrial buildings, with an estimated ground house of 367 billion sq. ft. A few of that is effectively insulated, a lot of it’s not. All of it might should be for our warmth pumps to work on the efficiencies we’d like them to. Based mostly on a UK pilot retrofit program the nationwide scale price for that is $1 trillion per 15 million inhabitants. The determine within the USA may subsequently be about $20 trillion. It is likely to be as excessive as $35 trillion.
We should always be aware right here that as with transport, some specialist kinds of heating can’t for the time being be carried out electrically, for example in major metal manufacturing. These will contain additional prices if internet zero is to be reached, however we’ll ignore that for now, regardless that we’re going to want an terrible lot of metal.
Now let’s get the ability grid decarbonized and make it 60 per cent larger and extra highly effective. Taken collectively, the US electrical grid has been referred to as the biggest machine on this planet: 200,000 miles of high-voltage transmission strains and 5.5 million miles of native distribution ones. We might want to add an extra 120,000 miles of transmission line. This may price within the order of $0.6 trillion, based mostly on US price knowledge.
The 5.5 million miles of native distribution strains should be upgraded to hold a lot greater currents. Most homes within the USA have a major circuit-breaker panel that enables between 100 and 200 amps (A) present into the home, though some new ones are rated at 300A. The 100A normal was set almost a century in the past, when the electrical kettle was the biggest single equipment. In a contemporary all-electric residence, a few of the new home equipment draw moderately greater currents: ground-source warmth pumps could draw 85A on start-up, radiant hobs when beginning up draw 37A, quick chargers for electrical autos draw 46A, and even gradual ones could draw 17A, whereas electrical showers draw 46A. The native wiring in streets and native transformers have been all sized to the 100-A restrict. Most houses will want an upgraded circuit breaker panel and at the least some rewiring, and far native wiring and lots of native substations will want upsizing. The UK prices have been estimated intimately at £1 trillion, which might scale to the order of $6 trillion on a per-capita foundation.
As 60 per cent of the present electrical technology is fossil fueled, we have to shut all of the fossil stations down and enhance the remaining, non-fossil technology capability 4 instances over. There isn’t a lot scope for brand new hydropower, and up to now, carbon seize doesn’t exist outdoors fossil gasoline manufacturing. Utilizing a combination of wind (onshore $1600/kW, offshore $6500/kW), photo voltaic ($1000/kW on the utility stage) and nuclear ($6000/kW), the capital price of this process alone is round $5 trillion, and we now have not handled the large downside of wind and photo voltaic being intermittent.
To date, we’re as much as $32 trillion as the price of offering insulated buildings and the technology, transmission, and distribution of electrical energy in a net-zero world. Though not all borne by households, this determine is of the order of $260,000 per US family.
Now let’s take into consideration intermittent. Generally there isn’t any wind and no sunshine, and our largely renewables-driven grid may have no energy. Present hydropower storage would run a net-zero grid within the USA for a couple of hours; present battery capability may accomplish that for a couple of minutes. Internet-zero advocates usually counsel merely constructing big quantities of battery storage, however the prices of this are colossal: 80 instances as a lot as the ability crops, tons of of trillions of {dollars}. And certainly, that is merely fantasy as the mandatory minerals will not be accessible in something just like the required quantities. If costs climbed, extra reserves would change into financial – however the costs are already impossibly excessive.
Right away, we will see {that a} net-zero grid with a big proportion of renewables merely can’t be constructed. However for now, let’s simply ignore the storage downside and take a look at some extra numbers.
The UK engineering agency Atkins estimates {that a} $1-billion challenge within the electrical sector over 30 years wants 24 or extra skilled, graduate engineers and 100 or extra expert tradespeople for the entire interval. Scaling up these figures for the $12 trillion of electrical energy sector initiatives simply described, we are going to want 300,000 skilled electrical engineers and 1.2 million expert tradespeople, full time, for the 30 years to 2050 on simply this a part of the net-zero challenge. Based mostly on the funds, we’d count on the buildings retrofit sector to want an analogous workforce of roughly three million individuals. This can be a mixed workforce roughly the scale of the complete present building sector.
Now let’s take into consideration supplies. A 600-megawatt (MW) combined-cycle fuel turbine (CCGT) wants 300 [metric] tonnes of high-performance metal. We would want 360 5-MW wind generators, every operating at an optimistic common 33 per cent effectivity (and a significant power storage facility alongside which we’re simply ignoring as it might be impossibly costly) to attain the identical steady 600-MW provide. Actually, for the reason that lifetime of wind generators at 25 years is lower than half that of CCGT generators, we might really need greater than 720 of them.
The mass of the nacelle (the turbine on the high of the tower) for a 5-MW wind turbine is similar to that of a CCGT. Moreover, the mass of concrete within the plinth of a single CCGT is similar to the mass of concrete for the foundations of every particular person onshore wind turbine, and far smaller than the concrete and ballast for every offshore one. We’re going to want monumental quantities of high-energy supplies equivalent to metal and concrete: one thing like a thousand instances as a lot as we have to construct CCGT or nuclear powerplants and renewed extra ceaselessly. This huge requirement might be going to have an effect on costs, each of supplies and power – and never in a great way – however for now we’ll simply assume prices stay at one thing like present ranges.
So, we will see that the infrastructure elements of the net-zero challenge that are theoretically doable would price comfortably in extra of $35 trillion and would require a devoted and extremely expert workforce similar to that of the development sector in addition to monumental quantities of supplies. Internet zero would additionally require a number of issues which in the present day are utterly inconceivable: scalable non-fossil power storage, very excessive temperature electrical industrial processes, severe electrical aviation, and transport. There would even be the matter of decarbonizing agriculture. This stuff, if they’ll even be achieved, would multiply the price at the least a number of instances over, to greater than $100 trillion.
So, the true price of net-zero, or extra doubtless of making an attempt and failing to attain it, can be just like – or much more than – whole projected US authorities spending out to 2050. There isn’t any chance of that amount of cash being diverted from different functions underneath something resembling regular market economics and requirements of residing.
The concept internet zero could be achieved on the present timelines by any means wanting a command economic system mixed with a drastic decline in requirements of residing – and several other unlikely technological miracles – is a blatant falsehood. The silence of the Nationwide Academies and the skilled science and engineering our bodies about these huge image engineering realities is despicable.
Individuals must know the realities of internet zero.”
Maybe there’s a cause why Washington is so smitten by The Inexperienced New Deal however refuses to debate the feasibility and the prices concerned – given the present expertise it requires a doubling of the Federal spending with no assurances of success. In keeping with the Congressional Funds Workplace: “In CBO’s projections, federal outlays whole $6.2 trillion, or 23.7 % of GDP, in 2023.” The fiscal 12 months ended on September 30, however not all the info is compiled.
See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy and https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58946#:~:textual content=Inpercent20CBO’spercent20projectionspercent2Cpercent20federalpercent20outlays,%percent20ofpercent20GDPpercent2Cpercent20inpercent202023.
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Lacking in Motion: A number of years in the past, Ocean Acidification was a sizzling “science” subject of worldwide warming literature. Now, it appears to have dropped out. Maybe sufficient individuals started to appreciate that if chalk, limestone, and so forth. may kind in atmospheres with way more carbon dioxide than in the present day’s environment, ocean acidification is meaningless. Lacking this Fall in sizzling “science’ subject of worldwide warming are Western Wildfires and Western Droughts Maybe they go collectively. Meteorologist Cliff Mass writes that this was a really low wildfire 12 months over Western U.S. He states:
“You shouldn’t be shocked that the wildfire risk has stayed tame over the previous couple of years and possibly gained’t speed up through the years forward.
Let me offer you a number of causes:
1. World warming for all of the hype and exaggeration is kind of modest at this level…. the western U.S. has warmed up by roughly 2F over the previous half century with little or no change in precipitation. Not sufficient to profoundly alter the fireplace state of affairs.
2. The areas which have burned through the previous many years will get pleasure from suppressed hearth potential for some time.
3. Lots of the wildfires within the western U.S. through the previous decade have been brought on by failing electrical infrastructure. After extreme impacts on their backside strains, many energy corporations (like PG&E) are hardening their powerlines and turning off energy when sturdy winds are predicted.
4. After a lot delay or inadequate efforts, states are getting extra severe about restoring forests, utilizing approaches equivalent to thinning and prescribed burning. This reduces the potential for catastrophic hearth.
5. Hearth administration coverage modifications allowed extra fires to burn in earlier many years and contributed to extra fires and smoke.
The underside line is that every one the scary speak about quickly rising wildfire threats in our future is basically not based mostly on strong information, and actuality goes a distinct manner.”
In Nothings to Do with Local weather Change, John Robson writes:
“The Canadian Press breathes an enormous sigh of aid that ‘‘Miracle’ water 12 months in California: Rain, snow put state’s reservoirs at 128% of historic common’.”
It seems that disasters in local weather change for alarmists change as ceaselessly because the climate. See hyperlinks underneath Altering Climate.
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Additions and Corrections: Reader Bud Bromley writes:
For sound scientific causes, NOAA’s World Monitoring Labs equivalent to Mauna Loa in addition to the World Meteorological Group calibrate and report CO2 focus in air as µmol mol−1 which is elements per million (ppm), measured in dry air, not elements per million by quantity (ppmv).
“The amount to be measured is the mole fraction of CO2 in dry air (µmol mol−1, abbreviated as ppm, from elements per million) as a result of it’s conserved when air expands or contracts or when water vapor is added or eliminated.” https://amt.copernicus.org/articles/14/3015/2021/https://gml.noaa.gov/ccl/co2_calsystem.html
In a single measurement, there may be little or no distinction between ppm and ppmv. However in repetitious measurements, the excessive pure variability of the water vapor in air samples causes excessive variability within the pattern quantity (or density or strain). Additionally, water vapor and aerosol trigger very excessive background variation in infrared-based spectroscopy methods as a consequence of giant overlaps of the water vapor and CO2 absorption spectra. These two sources of excessive variations would make repetitious calibration and measurements very time consuming and costly, if not impractical.
Bromley’s factors are effectively taken. However there aren’t any definitions chiseled in stone. If one persistently takes measurements in the identical place, and the water vapor there may be almost fixed, then there ought to be little distinction and the pattern is what’s vital.
Nevertheless, measuring in areas with completely different water vapor ranges presents a rationale for utilizing dry air as the usual. However a distinct downside arises. Organizations which ought to know higher, equivalent to NOAA, WMO, and NASA-GISS, ceaselessly report the greenhouse impact of gases equivalent to methane and nitrous oxide (from synthetic fertilizers) as if there have been no water vapor, the dominant greenhouse fuel, which tremendously influences the warming potential of different greenhouse gases when it’s current. Since minor quantities of water vapor dominate (even at 100 ppm moderately than the typical estimated at 1.5 %, 15,000 ppm), even in arid areas, such because the Sahara, the warming affect of methane and nitrous oxide is minimal, at most.
By utilizing the HITRAN database from laboratory experiments corrected by some fifty years of atmospheric observations utilizing devices on climate balloons, van Wijngaarden and Happer made an ideal contribution to understanding the greenhouse impact in in the present day’s environment and within the particular person warming potential of main greenhouse gases.
A number of readers corrected TWTW for misdating the 1997/98 El Niño as 1998. With the lag that could be 2 to six months, the power of the El Niño was over in 1998 however the affect continued. TWTW appreciates all such corrections and can endeavor to be extra exact.
See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy.
Variety of the Week: 41 Occasions better. The US Vitality Data Administration (EIA) printed a report on “Federal Monetary Interventions and Subsidies in Vitality in Fiscal Years 2016–2022.” Utilizing the info for FY 2022, Robert Bradley Jr calculated the power subsidies per Billion BTUs of power produced. He discovered that US Vitality Subsides to renewable power are 41 instances better than to grease and pure fuel on a per unit power foundation. See hyperlinks underneath Subsidies and Mandates Perpetually.
Commentary: Is the Solar Rising?
Taking the solar critically
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 11, 2023
“From that Scaffeta concludes that scientists actually must get to work nailing down what the potential oblique mechanisms of photo voltaic affect on the local weather is likely to be. Sadly such work is difficult to get funded, and even when it’s printed the IPCC ignores it. But when Scaffeta’s outcomes are right, we are going to see far much less warming within the coming years than alarmists have predicted, and sooner or later we’re going to need to know why. Now can be a great time.”
Whole Eclipse Of The Coronary heart – ‘Ring Of Hearth’ Eclipse To Stress Energy Grids From California To Texas
By Jason Lindquist, RBN Vitality, Oct 12, 2023
https://rbnenergy.com/total-eclipse-of-the-heart-ring-of-fire-eclipse-to-stress-power-grids-from-california-to-texas
Photo voltaic researcher warns of photo voltaic exercise lower, imminent MINI ICE AGE and GLOBAL FAMINE by 2030
By Belle Carter, Pure Information, Oct 6, 2023
https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-10-06-researcher-warns-mini-ice-age-famine-by-2030.html
Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013
Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019
http://retailer.heartland.org/store/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Obtain with no cost:
Why Scientists Disagree About World Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Obtain with no cost:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
World Sea-Degree Rise: An Analysis of the Knowledge
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Transient, Might 20, 2019
Environment and Greenhouse Gasoline Primer
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
https://wvanwijngaarden.data.yorku.ca/recordsdata/2023/03/GreenhousePrimerArxiv.pdf?x45936
Relative Efficiency of Greenhouse Molecules
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Jan 14, 2021
https://wvanwijngaarden.data.yorku.ca/recordsdata/2021/03/WPotency.pdf?x45936
Michael Kelly: The inexperienced power Internet Zero plan would require a command economic system
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 13, 2023
Guide Evaluation: Local weather Uncertainty and Danger, By Judith Curry
By Rupert Darwall, Actual Clear Vitality, Oct 8, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/10/08/book_review_climate_uncertainty_and_risk_by_judith_curry_984521.html
“Local weather Uncertainty and Danger is greater than a e-book. Curry has produced a single-author counter to the IPCC that gives a radical different to the UN paradigm of local weather change that would effectively function a handbook for a future Republican administration.”
[SEPP Comment: Or for any administration more interested in policies that address the issue than policies that enhance their power.]
Marcel Crok Speaks within the Danish Parliament
By Andy Might, WUWT, Oct 7, 2023
Wake Up, America: Our Local weather Insurance policies Are A Disaster In The Making
By Henry I. Miller, MS, MD and Andew I. Fillat, ACSH, Oct 10, 2023
https://www.acsh.org/information/2023/10/10/wake-america-our-climate-policies-are-catastrophe-making-17268
“In a Might Senate listening to, Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) managed to extract from the deputy power secretary three crucial admissions regarding emissions. One, the USA is at present chargeable for solely 13% of worldwide carbon emissions, and we can’t management what China, India, or different nations do; two, it is going to price an estimated $50 trillion to decarbonize the U.S. by 2050; and three, the feds have no idea what number of levels of warming such spending would possibly mitigate, unsurprising given the small fraction of emissions U.S. actions can have an effect on.”
[SEPP Comment: No matter what we do, it won’t make much difference, the cost is incredible, and the effect on warming may be insignificant. But let’s bankrupt the country anyway?]
United Nations Worldwide Youngsters’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) Covers-up UN failures by Blaming Local weather Change!
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Oct 10, 2023
See hyperlinks underneath Defending the Orthodoxy
Defending the Orthodoxy
New United Nations Report Indicators Want for Mud and Grass Huts by 2050
By Chris Morrison, The Each day Sceptic, Oct 10, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
Hyperlink to UN report: ‘Constructing Supplies and the Local weather: Developing a New Future
By Employees, United Nations Atmosphere Programme, 2023
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cYHq0HDL78xJjo-uWd13bqwZ24Elgz5L/view
“Battle on trendy constructing supplies has additionally been declared by U.Ok. FIRES, an instructional collaboration funded with a £5 million state grant. It has referred to as for a ruthless purge of conventional constructing provides, to get replaced with supplies equivalent to ‘rammed earth’.”
[SEPP Comment: Nothing like sod huts until the rains come.]
Excessive climate occasions anticipated to displace thousands and thousands of kids: UNICEF
By Lauren Irwin, The Hill, Oct 6, 2023
Hyperlink to report: Youngsters Displaced in a Altering Local weather: making ready for a future already underway.
This United Nations Youngsters’s Fund (UNICEF) publication was developed collectively by UNICEF’s Programme Division; Division of Knowledge and Analytics, Planning and Monitoring; and Division of World Communication and Advocacy, in partnership with Inside Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) and with help from the Patrick J. McGovern Basis. 2023
Decreasing US oil demand, not manufacturing, is the best way ahead for the local weather
By Samantha Gross, Brookings, September 2023
“America underneath the Biden administration has made bold guarantees of greenhouse emissions reductions, pledging a 50% to 52% discount of internet U.S. emissions by 2030, from a 2005 baseline. The Inflation Discount Act (IRA), handed in August 2022, is a key down cost on that promise.”
“The U.S. produces and consumes one-fifth of the world’s oil”, Determine 2
“We should study from previous experiences to reduce the impacts of the power transition on these with probably the most to lose and orient financial improvement towards new industries.”
[SEPP Comment: Does not analyze the physical evidence of the effect of GHGs on temperature or the cost of the reduction of net emissions.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
We’ll take it
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 11, 2023
“Local weather change could be very stylish. Which isn’t to say that individuals who hyperlink their favorite trigger to it are cynical. They could simply be alert to alternatives. But in addition vulnerable to a herd mentality. In any case, once we learn that Montreal goals to change into a ‘sponge metropolis’ so as ‘to reply to the local weather disaster’ our view is that we’ll take it even when the rationale is fatuous, as a result of as we now have defined, the rising frequency and severity of city flooding as a consequence of poor municipal planning is an actual subject even when the reference to local weather is spurious.”
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Local weather “uncontrolled”? A actuality examine
By David Whitehouse, Internet Zero Watch, Oct 11, 2023
How Might the IPCC Make an Error this Massive?
A significant mistake with profound penalties for science and coverage
By Roger Pielke Jr. The Sincere Dealer, Oct 11, 2023
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/how-could-the-ipcc-make-an-error?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=119454&post_id=137873276&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&utm_medium=electronic mail
“Earlier this week I mentioned the mystifying continued prioritization of the outdated and implausible RCP8.5 situation by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) in its situations anticipated to information Dutch local weather insurance policies for the subsequent decade.”
Internet Zero Watch requires a clearout on the Local weather Change Committee
Press Launch, Internet Zero Watch, Oct 13, 2023
“Marketing campaign group Internet Zero Watch has referred to as for a administration clearout on the Local weather Change Committee (CCC), accusing it of ‘shameless’ deceit over the prices of Internet Zero.”
Eliminating Fossil Fuels Will Produce A Crippling Decline In Human Nicely-Being
By William Brooks, By way of Tyler Durden Zero Hedge, Aug 3, 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eliminating-fossil-fuels-will-produce-crippling-decline-human-well-being
Local weather Truth-Verify September 2023 Version
By Steve Milloy, Local weather Realism, Oct 11, 20223
COP In
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 11, 2023
“Amongst local weather alarmists, to our mingled aid and amusement, actuality is beginning to set in. 1 / 4-century in the past, they may rant, rave and visualize all they wished concerning the coming apocalypse in 2030 or so. However now they must ship (a) an apocalypse and (b) an answer. The previous appears to be no downside, rhetorically at the least, together with now that we reside not within the time of worldwide boiling however the ‘Flame Age.’”
Carbon Dioxide Does Not Trigger Warming
By James T. Moodey, American Thinker, Oct 13, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/10/carbion_dioxide_does_not_cause_warming.html
“We have to cease considering, ‘It has to trigger at the least some warming.’ No, it doesn’t — clearly, it doesn’t. The query we ought to be asking is, ‘Why doesn’t carbon dioxide trigger warming?’ That results in the right scientific conclusion: measure it.”
[SEPP Comment: Carbon dioxide does not cause warming; it reduces heat loss to space.]
Vitality and Environmental Evaluation: October 9, 2023
By John Droz, Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Oct 9, 2023
After Paris!
Why COPs Ought to Have No Enamel
By Ivor Williams, WUWT, Oct 12, 2023
Tidbits
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 11, 2023
Hyperlink to: The Human-Centric Metropolis of the Future
By Employees, COP28 UAE, Accessed Oct 11, 2023
https://www.cop28.com/en/cop28-uae-venue
“The venue’s measurement and design allow COP28 UAE to function an inclusive platform for dialogue, by providing a devoted house to the accredited events and observer delegates website (Blue Zone) and to civil society (Inexperienced Zone).
The convention is anticipated to convene over 70,000 individuals, together with heads of state, authorities officers, trade leaders, lecturers, and representatives from civil society organizations.”
[SEPP Comment: Was Dubai built with low carbon dioxide emissions?]
In search of a Frequent Floor
Thou Shalt Use RCP8.5
Governments are mandating the usage of outdated local weather situations as scientists stand by silently
By Roger Pielke Jr. The Sincere Dealer, Oct 9, 2023
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/thou-shalt-use-rcp85?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=119454&post_id=137809966&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&utm_medium=electronic mail
Science, Coverage, and Proof
Dangerous Coverage: Germany Retains Making Its Vitality More and more Costly, Fueling Inflation
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Oct 10, 2023
Mannequin Points
Regression attenuation solely relies upon upon the relative noise in “X”
By Roy Spencer, World Warming, Oct 11, 2023
“Ross McKitrick has responded to my electronic mail to him on this topic, and it seems he has one paper printed, and one other quickly to be printed, on this topic. Fairly technical. He claims that local weather researchers utilizing local weather mannequin output are literally getting over-inflated regression relationships by utilizing ‘errors-in-variables’ regression fashions that make improper assumptions relating to the supply of ‘noise’ in local weather mannequin knowledge.”
Measurement Points — Floor
NOAA U.S. Contiguous USCRN Temperature Anomaly September 2023 Knowledge Exhibits No “Local weather Emergency”
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Oct 12, 2023
Altering Climate
Are You Certain a Altering Local weather Causes Extreme Climate?
By William D. Balgord, Townhall, Oct 7, 2023
https://townhall.com/columnists/williamdbalgord/2023/10/07/are-you-sure-a-changing-climate-causes-severe-weather-n2629485
The Answer to Excessive Climate Points is to not Scale back GHG Emissions
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Oct 8, 2023
“For instance, Rachael Fauss famous that the investments are obligatory ‘on this period of local weather change’ misses the purpose that local weather is what you count on and climate is what you get. Local weather change had little or no impact on this occasion and definitely not sufficient to trigger the storm or materially change its impacts.”
Nothing to do with local weather change
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 11, 2023
A Very Low Wildfire Yr over the Western U.S.
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Oct 9, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/10/a-very-low-wildfire-year-over-western-us.html
So Violent A Sea & Wind
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 10, 2023
“None of this is able to have come as any shock to HH Lamb, who wrote about it in Local weather, Historical past and the Fashionable World:”
Altering Local weather
Millennial moisture variability on the japanese Tibetan Plateau
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 11, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive:
Altering Seas
How Brown the Corals – That have been Pink Final Yr
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Weblog, Oct 12, 2023
“Coral reefs are probably the most extraordinary locations, and they’re primarily layer upon layer of lifeless coral topped with a skinny veneer of residing coral.”
Greenland Ice Soften Has Added Simply 1.2 Centimeters To Sea Ranges Since 1992
By Kenneth Richard, No Methods Zone, Oct 9, 2023
Hyperlink to 1 examine: Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet Throughout the Final Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2-CISM2 Coupled Local weather–Ice Sheet Mannequin
By Aleah N. Sommers, et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 2021
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2021PA004272
Hyperlink to second examine: Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Steadiness (1992–2020) From Calibrated Radar Altimetry
By Sebastian B. Simonsen, et al, Geophysical Analysis Letters, Jan 19, 2021
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL091216
Shoreline Administration Plans Based mostly On Pretend Sea Degree Rise Projections
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 8, 2023
Altering Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
A lake underneath Antarctica and what it accommodates
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 11, 2023
Hyperlink to paper: Constraints on the Timing and Extent of Deglacial Grounding Line Retreat in West Antarctica
By Ryan A. Venturelli et al. AGU, April 26, 2023
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2022AV000846
From the abstract: “We discovered that this area, now 150 km from the trendy ocean, was a part of the marine surroundings just a few thousand years in the past. That previous connection to the ocean is powering in the present day’s inhabitants of microbial life, which strikes carbon from the sediment to the water column within the lake and is finally flushed into the Southern Ocean.”
October 2023 Arctic Ice Flash Freezing
By Ron Clutz, Science Issues, Oct 11, 2023
Veteran German Meteorologist: Arctic Displaying “Important Development In direction of Extra Ice!” Since 2007
By Klaus-Eckart Puls, By way of No Methods Zone, Oct 7, 2023
Altering Earth
New Research Upends Modeling, Finds Earth’s Rocks Are A Internet Supply Of CO2 Rivaling Volcanic Emissions
By Kenneth Richard, No Methods Zone, Oct 12, 2023
“These wildly various outcomes and consequent giant uncertainties underscore simply how guess-based carbon funds modeled estimates are.”
Agriculture Points & Worry of Famine
Local weather intervention applied sciences could create winners and losers in world meals provide
Evaluation by scientists exhibits future methods limiting international local weather change could create uneven advantages, forcing tough selections worldwide
Press Launch, Rutgers College, Oct 5, 2023
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1003504
Hyperlink to paper: Optimum local weather intervention situations for crop manufacturing range by nation
By Brendan Clark, Nature Meals, Oct 5, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-023-00853-3
BBC Say It’s OK To Lie
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 7, 2023
“Within the response from the BBC Government Complaints Unit, ECU, they have been unable to supply any proof to again up the declare. Nor have been they capable of present proof that the speed of abrasion has elevated lately.
There isn’t any point out within the article of the truth that the shoreline at Happisburgh and elsewhere in Norfolk has been eroding on the similar price for 1000’s of years. This omission was clearly designed to steer readers that local weather change is the principle issue behind the erosion.”
[SEPP Comment: Making alarming claims with no evidence is not lying?]
Dismantling the Royal Society Massive-Scale Electrical energy Storage Report
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 9, 2023
Hyperlink to overview: Dismantling the Royal Society Massive-Scale Electrical energy Storage Report
The Royal Society report makes extraordinary claims that don’t stand as much as scrutiny.
By David Turver, Eigen Values, Oct 8, 2023
https://davidturver.substack.com/p/royal-society-large-electricity-storage-report
New ONS Warmth Deaths Claims Don’t Stack Up
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 6, 2023
“’There have been greater than 50,000 heat-related deaths and greater than 200,000 associated to chilly in England and Wales since 1988, new official figures present.
The Workplace for Nationwide Statistics [ONS] mentioned very low and really excessive temperatures each elevated the danger of loss of life.
And though chilly is the larger killer, the ONS mentioned heat-related deaths appeared to have risen lately.”
“And with the media giving full publicity to this fraudulent report, the federal government is little question very completely satisfied!”
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Yellow (Inexperienced) Journalism?
Local weather Soothsayers: Why your hay fever is a “signal” you need to vote for a carbon tax
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 14, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Green life is flourishing; the end is near!]
Nevertheless it was
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 11, 2023
Speaking Higher to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Obscure?
Can excessive warmth make elements of the Earth too sizzling for people?
By Andy Might, WUWT, Oct 12, 2023
Hyperlink to: Tremendously enhanced danger to people as a consequence of empirically decided decrease moist warmth stress tolerance
By DanielJ.Vecellio, et al., Edited by Kerry Emanuel, PNAS, Aug 15, 2023
https://www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.2305427120
[SEPP Comment: Based on this paper, humanity cannot survive in humid, tropical Africa where humanity evolved?]
Speaking Higher to the Public – Make issues up.
The Finish Of Penguins
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Oct 11, 2023
Hyperlink to: “A ‘as soon as each 7.5 million years’ occasion is at present unfolding in Antarctica: ‘To say unprecedented isn’t sturdy sufficient’”
By Laurelle Stelle, Yahoo Information, Sep 14, 2023
https://information.yahoo.com/once-every-7-5-million-180000122.html
From silly article: “In keeping with bodily oceanographer Edward Doddridge, that is the primary time an occasion like this has been noticed, the ABC experiences — and it’s extraordinarily unlikely to have occurred by itself.
‘To say unprecedented isn’t sturdy sufficient,” Doddridge informed the ABC. ‘This can be a five-sigma occasion. … Which implies that if nothing had modified, we’d count on to see a winter like this about as soon as each 7.5 million years. … There are individuals saying it might be pure variability … nevertheless it’s most unlikely.’”
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Propaganda
Right, WBUR, Many Local weather Scientists Don’t Inform the Fact
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 9,2023
Hottest Ever September — simply extra headline clickbait for warmth loving mammals that reside throughout a 90 diploma vary
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 9, 2023
Speaking Higher to the Public – Protest
Local weather protesters crash Buttigieg interview, chanting ‘cease Petro Pete’
By Lauren Irwin, The Hill, Oct 11, 2023
Climate protesters crash Buttigieg interview, chanting ‘stop Petro Pete’
Enraged Portuguese Motorists Clear Local weather Roadblock
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 8, 2023
Increasing the Orthodoxy
Local weather Coup Alert: CEQ Proposes to Rework NEPA
By Marlo Lewis, Actual Clear Vitality, Oct 9, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/10/09/climate_coup_alert_ceq_proposes_to_transform_nepa_984880.html
“Feedback I submitted to CEQ make that very same overarching level. The Proposed Rule is designed to advance the Biden administration’s “whole-of-government method to the local weather disaster.” Just like the AGs, I politely suggested CEQ to stop and desist.”
Company pursuits and the UN treaty on plastic air pollution: neglecting classes from the WHO Framework Conference on Tobacco Management
By Rob Ralston, et al., The Lancet, Oct 4, 2023
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)02040-8/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_aip_email
[SEPP Comment: More reason why the US should not participate in any UN treaty.]
Environmental group raises considerations about loophole in ozone, local weather treaty
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 10, 2023
https://thehill.com/coverage/energy-environment/4248610-environmental-group-raises-concerns-about-loophole-in-ozone-climate-treaty/
Hyperlink to say: F-Gases on the Fenceline
Exposing The Fluorochemical Manufacturing Sector’s Undisclosed Emissions
By Employees, Environmental Investigation Company, Oct 10, 2023
https://us.eia.org/report/f-gases-at-the-fenceline/
“The substances detected pose severe considerations for human well being and the surroundings given their excessive local weather warming influence, ozone depletion, and/or breakdown into persistent degradation by-products. Many of those gases are related to sudden rising international emissions recognized in latest scientific research, suggesting that international fluorochemical manufacturing and/or unlawful manufacturing and use are the first sources of approx. 870 million tonnes CO2 in emissions on an annual foundation.”
[SEPP Comment: But ozone is a greenhouse gas, doesn’t the UN wish to destroy greenhouse gases?]
Questioning European Inexperienced
Andrew Neil: In all places, there’s a rising public revolt towards internet zero, forcing politicians throughout Europe to renege on inexperienced advantage signalling
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 9, 2023
Why warmth pumps won’t ever work in Britain
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 10, 2023
“The environmental levies he refers to are neither “tax” or “coverage prices”. They’re subsidies paid out to renewable turbines, and thus replicate the true price of manufacturing that electrical energy.
Merely taxing fuel and subsidising the worth of electrical energy with a purpose to persuade individuals to purchase warmth pumps would make no sense. As soon as all of us cease utilizing fuel, the levies must be added again to our electrical energy payments anyway.”
Ed Miliband Desires £200 Billion Of Your Cash To Plaster The Countryside With Pylons
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 9, 2023
“Ed Miliband, shadow power secretary, and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, will set out plans at this week’s occasion convention to ‘rewire Britain’ and construct a cleaner power grid, probably unlocking £200bn of personal funding.”
“At any time when Labour talks of ‘funding’, maintain a good maintain of your wallets! Non-public buyers will not be going handy that cash over out of the kindness of their hearts. They are going to demand a hefty pay again.
Consequently, power customers is not going to simply must pay the £200bn again, which by the best way quantities to about £8000 for each residence within the UK, however a good-looking revenue on high.”
Questioning Inexperienced Elsewhere
Biden Promotes Local weather Change At The Expense Of Extra World Poverty
The mad rush to cope with local weather change, even when it really works (it gained’t), has a nasty tradeoff (extra international poverty).
By Mike Shedlock, By way of Zero Hedge, Oct 9, 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-promotes-climate-change-expense-more-global-poverty
The parable of inexpensive inexperienced power is over
By Kathryn Porter, Yahoo Information, Oct 10, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://information.yahoo.com/myth-affordable-green-energy-over-120436500.html
“Wishful considering can solely go up to now earlier than market realities start to chew. The litany of issues going through offshore wind ought to immediate policymakers to re-evaluate their assumptions about this market.”
Inexperienced Jobs
Electrical Van Maker On Verge Of Chapter
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 13, 2023
“The place have all of the inexperienced jobs gone?”
Non-Inexperienced Jobs
Almost 1M coal jobs could also be misplaced by 2050: Analysis
By Miranda Nazzaro, Oct 10, 2023
Hyperlink to press launch: 100 miners a day face job cuts as trade winds down coal
By Employees, World Vitality Monitor, Oct 9, 2023
“China and India will doubtless be hardest hit: China’s Shanxi province would shed probably the most jobs globally — almost 1 / 4 of 1,000,000 (241,900) by 2050 — whereas Coal India is the producer going through the biggest potential jobs cuts of 73,800 by mid-century.”
Hyperlink to report: Scraping By: World Coal Miners and the Urgency of a Simply Transition
By Ryan Driskell Tate, et al, World Vitality Monitor, October 2023
Funding Points
Buyers are beginning to abandon clear inexperienced power as they notice it’s by no means going to be low cost
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 13, 2023
Litigation Points
Prosecutors: Local weather activist emails stolen by hackers have been later cited in court docket by ExxonMobil
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 13, 2023
Prosecutors: Climate activist emails stolen by hackers were later cited in court by ExxonMobil
“That press protection, he mentioned, was additionally integrated into Exxon’s personal state and federal filings in these instances. The memo doesn’t accuse Exxon of involvement within the hacks, and the corporate has already denied any reference to the hacks.”
[SEPP Comment: Isn’t hacking a long-accepted practice by those opposing fossil fuels?]
Charleston’s Local weather Go well with Is a Stalking Horse for the Inexperienced New Deal
By O.H. Skinner, Actual Clear Vitality, Oct 11, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/10/11/charlestons_climate_suit_is_a_stalking_horse_for_the_green_new_deal_985382.html
Hyperlink to go well with: Metropolis of Charleston vs. Brabham Oil Firm, and so forth.
Courtroom of Frequent Appeals, Civic Motion No. 2020-CP-10, Sep 9, 2022
https://www.charleston-sc.gov/ArchiveCenter/ViewFile/Merchandise/716
“Defendants Are Accountable for Inflicting and Accelerating Local weather Change.”
“Since 1960, the focus of CO2 within the environment has gone from underneath 320 elements per million (“ppm”) to roughly 415 ppm.”
[SEPP Comment: Get at the real culprit, sue China!]
Subsidies and Mandates Perpetually
Wind and Photo voltaic Bribes: The Taxpayer Pays
By Robert Bradley Jr, Grasp Useful resource, Oct 13, 2023
Hyperlink to report: Federal Monetary Interventions and Subsides in Vitality in Fiscal Years 2016-2022
By Employees, EIA, Aug 1, 2023
https://www.eia.gov/evaluation/requests/subsidy/#:~:textual content=Duringpercent20FYpercent202016percentE2percent80percent9322percent2Cpercent20nearly,%2415.6percent20billionpercent20inpercent20FYpercent202022.
Vitality Points – Non-US
The Internet Zero Ship Beginning to Sink
Governments and enterprise leaders are actually altering their tune on internet zero.
By Nicole James, The Epoch Occasions, Oct 12, 2023
https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/the-net-zero-ship-starting-to-sink-5509416?utm_source=Goodevening&src_src=Goodevening&utm_campaign=gv-2023-10-13&src_cmp=gv-2023-10-13&utm_medium=electronic mail&cta_utm_source=Goodevening&est=rCGN1NWgghRK764pAyhoXaqB1fbLixqlmEUcMnNpercent2BQEKBBcsaWgQqQtiNngpercent3Dpercent3D
Bitter Defeat For Germany’s Ruling Socialist/Inexperienced Authorities In State Elections
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Oct 8, 2023
Local weather Tales: BlackRock bought Exxon to divest oil fields that PetroChina wished (which BlackRock additionally owned shares in)
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 7, 2023
Vitality Points – Australia
Blackouts are coming: Australian grid so fragile, costly, cement big already shuts down almost every single day
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 11, 2023
“Mr Bansal [the chief executive of Boral] informed the Summit that Boral’s electrical energy worth rose by 54 per cent within the 12 months to the second half of final 12 months, and haven’t retreated, counter to expectations.
He mentioned Boral had about 5500 ‘blue collar’ employees who have been being informed to face apart and do nothing for half-hour at a time when energy costs made it too costly to function.
‘At a sure worth through the day, when the worth goes up [to] a sure stage, our manufacturing stops as a result of we’ve labored out economically it’s truly higher to have 1000’s of individuals ready idle for the costs to come back down then truly do the work,’ he mentioned.
‘That’s an actual subject we face each single day on 300 manufacturing websites throughout the nation. So we’re extraordinarily nervous what which means.’”
Get up Australia – renewable power gained’t save the planet if it prices the earth
By Robert Onfray, His Weblog, Oct 6, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: Solar and wind proponents emphasize benefits and ignore costs. The author frankly states, he does the reverse.]
Vitality Points — US
Extraordinary Prices Of Inexperienced Vitality Creeping Slowly Into Public Consciousness
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 9, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/weblog/2023-10-9-extraordinary-costs-of-green-energy-creeping-into-public-awareness
[SEPP Comment: As Menton states, the Lazard claims of Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison calculations “calculation completely omits the dominant costs of generating reliable electricity using mostly or entirely wind and solar generators. These dominant costs are the costs of energy storage and/or backup, the costs of overbuilding, and the costs of additional transmission.”]
The electrical grid wants good failure mode evaluation
By David Wojick, CFACT, Oct 6, 2023
https://www.cfact.org/2023/10/06/the-electric-grid-needs-good-failure-mode-analysis/
“Everybody talks about blackouts, however I’ve not seen an in depth evaluation of the assorted methods these would possibly happen. I think there are a number of completely different fundamental methods, every calling for a distinct method. So listed below are some starter ideas.”
Electrical Grid Reliability: Texas vs. EPA
By Ed Eire, Grasp Useful resource, Oct 10, 2023
Simply One Extra – How New England Would Profit From A Gasoline Pipeline Enlargement
By Housley Carr, RBN Vitality, Oct 11, 2023
https://rbnenergy.com/just-one-more-how-new-england-would-benefit-from-a-gas-pipeline-expansion
[SEPP Comment: Less than 20,000 years ago New England was covered by ice thousands of feet deep, and its politicians fear warming?]
A Precipitous Sprint to a Energy Grid Reliability Disaster
By Michelle Bloodworth, Actual Clear Vitality, Oct 6, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/10/06/a_precipitous_dash_to_a_grid_reliability_crisis_984481.html
Stealth Electrical energy Statism: Giberson Trade (for the file)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Oct 12, 2023
Oil and Pure Gasoline – the Future or the Previous?
World fossil gasoline use and CO2 emissions to rise by way of 2050, US EIA initiatives
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 13, 2023
Hyperlink to: EIA initiatives international power consumption will outpace effectivity beneficial properties usually
By Michelle Bowman, et al., EIA, Oct 11, 2023
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/element.php?id=60642&mc_cid=b8e6cdffc5&mc_eid=4961da7cb1
Homewood: “What is especially vital is that emissions and consumption of fossil gasoline stay successfully at the least as excessive as now throughout all situations. The bottom by way of fossil fuels is LM – Low Financial Development Case.
The evaluation is clearly deep, and I think much more reasonable than the fantasies peddled by the IEA.”
Financial and Fiscal Impression of Pennsylvania Shale Improvement
By Employees, FTI Consulting, August 2023
“Marcellus Shale Coalition (“MSC”) engaged FTI Consulting (“FTI”) to investigate the financial and monetary impacts of the shale fuel improvement trade (“the trade”) on the Pennsylvania economic system underneath three situations from 2022-2050. FTI created and distributed a survey to MSC board members to seize knowledge on the trade’s upstream, midstream, and downstream capital and working expenditures to help this evaluation.”
Drill, Child, Drill
Exxon Mobil’s buy of Pioneer proves the Permian Basin remains to be the most popular hydrocarbon province on earth
By Robert Bryce, His Weblog, Accessed, Oct 13, 2023
https://substack.com/notes/submit/p-137871911
Nuclear Vitality and Fears
The Seven Soiled Secrets and techniques of Photo voltaic Vitality
By Lorraine Miles, American Thinker, Oct 11, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/10/the_seven_dirty_secrets_of_solar_energy.html
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Photo voltaic and Wind
4 NY offshore initiatives ask for nearly 50% worth rise
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 7, 2023
Regulatory Rebuff Blow to Offshore Wind Tasks
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 13, 2023
Leah Stokes, PNAS, and Conflicts of Curiosity
By Andy Might, WUWT, Oct 10, 2023
Hyperlink to paper: Prevalence and predictors of wind power opposition in North America
By Leah C. Stokes, editor Michael Mann, PNAS, Sep 25, 2023
https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2302313120
‘Turbine graveyards’ sprawled throughout Texas
By James Morrow, Sky Information, Accessed Oct 12, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Video – Junkyards in 10 years.
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Vitality — Storage
Bidenomics at Work: ‘Inexperienced’ Hydrogen Is a Very Costly Waste of Cash
By Frank Lasee, Actual Clear Energy, Oct 6, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/10/06/bidenomics_at_work_green_hydrogen_is_a_very_expensive_waste_of_money_984468.html
Biden administration publicizes $7 billion for 7 regional hydrogen power ‘hubs’
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 13, 2023
Biden administration announces $7 billion for 7 regional hydrogen energy ‘hubs’
“The Appalachian hub will span West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania, can be powered by pure fuel, and its emissions can be captured and saved.
The California hub can be powered by renewables and biomass and can look to energy public transit, heavy-duty vehicles and port operations.”
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Autos
Luton Automobile Park Hearth Replace
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 12, 2023
“It has been claimed by the Hearth Service that the fireplace began on a Vary Rover diesel, however consultants are dismissive of this.
As an illustration, AA technical professional Greg Carter mentioned the commonest reason for automobile fires is {an electrical} fault with the 12-volt battery system. However he added that diesel is ‘a lot much less flammable’ than petrol and in a automobile it takes ‘intense strain or sustained flame’ to ignite diesel.”
Automobile Park Fires
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 12, 2023
Hyperlink to report: Kings Dock Automobile Park Fre, Safety Report
By Employees, Merseyside Hearth & Rescue Service, April 2018
“One remaining remark.
The Merseyside report famous the absence of sprinkler programs, and it seems that Luton’s automobile park additionally didn’t have any sprinklers working.
Whereas these would clearly be invaluable in an strange automobile hearth, they might be worse than ineffective in a lithium battery hearth.
I can solely repeat – if a fireplace occurred in an underground automobile park full EVs beneath a block of flats, it might be a catastrophe.”
California Dreaming
Offshore Wind is an Financial and Environmental Disaster
California challenge can be one of the vital egregious instances of environmental destruction in human historical past
By Edward Ring, American Greatness, Oct 11, 2023 [Bernie Kepshire]
Oh Mann!
Mann Tweets Research Claiming Local weather Deniers Are Misogynist Authoritarians
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 10, 2023
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
World Heating Will Make Your Beers Style Worse!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 11, 2023
Hyperlink to paper: Local weather-induced decline within the high quality and amount of European hops requires speedy adaptation measures
By Martin Mozny, et al., Nature Communications, Oct 10, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41474-5
“The most effective bit although is the Guardian’s declare that international heating will push up costs, as a result of the final paragraph consists of this quote from a German hop farmer:
“’Auernhammer mentioned the local weather risk to hops was vital however added it was not the most important issue within the worth of a beer. Excessive power prices, pushed by the hovering worth of fossil fuel since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have performed a much bigger position for brewers. ‘The hops inside a beer don’t price as a lot because the cap on high of the bottle,’ he mentioned.’”
A Evaluation of Missy’s Twitch and the Scourge of Climatosis
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 10, 2023
It actually bugs them
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 11, 2023
“So, it’s an previous impulse on the a part of our supposed betters to grab from our fingers these issues we like, and are too dumb to appreciate are making us effeminate and boiling the planet.”
Fats Bear Week winner a ‘gutsy woman’
By Tara Suter, The Hill, Oct 11, 2023
https://thehill.com/coverage/energy-environment/4250321-fat-bear-week-winner-a-gutsy-girl/
[Gutsy Girl] “Grazer simply squashed her male rival, 32 Chunk, within the remaining spherical of this 12 months’s Fats Bear Week by over 80,000 votes.]
ARTICLES
1. Local weather Change and ‘Poor’ South Korea
A examine claims warmth suppresses financial development. It falls aside underneath scrutiny.
By David Barker, WSJ, Oct. 12, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/debunking-study-saying-climate-change-hurts-economic-growth-16e07ec3?mod=opinion_lead_pos10
TWTW Abstract: The writer begins:
“Local weather change hurts the economic system, in accordance with a celebrated 2012 paper by economists Melissa Dell, Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken. That paper is within the high 1% of all educational economics publications by quotation depend, and it has obtained glowing protection within the media. The authors train at Harvard, Northwestern and the Massachusetts Institute of Expertise, respectively, and have obtained a few of the highest awards within the career. I took a better take a look at their examine, and it doesn’t maintain up.
The examine claims that greater temperatures suppress financial development in poor nations. The declare falls aside whenever you take a look at their definitions. The authors examine the interval 1961-2003 and assign every nation a binary designation as “poor” or “wealthy” based mostly on whether or not their per capita gross home product was beneath or above the median for nations in 1960.
However some nations confronted drastic modifications in fortune on the time.
South Korea is “poor,” in accordance with the authors. In actuality, it was very poor within the early Sixties after which grew to become very rich. After I merely reclassified South Korea as poor from 1961-76 and wealthy from 1977-2003, the examine’s outcomes almost disappeared. After I allowed classifications of all nations to vary after they moved both above or beneath median GDP per capita, the outcomes disappeared utterly. Any examine with outcomes that collapse after such a easy specification change shouldn’t be printed in a peer-reviewed educational journal.
I additionally discovered that uncommon financial circumstances tremendously influenced nations’ outcomes. Per capita GDP in Rwanda dropped by 63% in 1994, the 12 months of the genocide. That 12 months occurred to be hotter than common, tricking the mannequin into displaying that top temperatures trigger GDP to fall. Dropping 16 uncommon nation/12 months observations out of 4,924 eradicated the principle impact the examine reported. Different seemingly arbitrary elements of their approach, when modified, weakened or eradicated their outcomes.
I prolonged their knowledge from 2003 to 2017 and added extra nations to the pattern. I discovered once more that appropriately classifying nations as poor or wealthy eradicated their outcomes. Going again to their unique knowledge supply, I found that month-to-month temperatures can be found, though they used solely annual temperature knowledge. If excessive temperatures actually cut back GDP development, it appears doubtless that this impact can be biggest within the warmest months of the 12 months. I discovered no proof to help that speculation within the unique or the prolonged knowledge. I additionally used a very completely different set of knowledge on GDP by nation and located no impact of temperature on development.
Local weather activists want proof that top temperatures cut back financial development to advance their insurance policies. Accountable economists have discovered that top temperatures have solely small results on the extent of GDP.”
Mr. Barker goes into element on the absurdity of the paper and concludes by stating that the writer of his paper contacted Merses Jones and Olken to reply, they usually declined.
******************
2. The Subsequent Huge Photo voltaic Storm Might Fry the Grid
Scientists are utilizing synthetic intelligence to raised predict what the solar will do and provides Earth re warning to guard satellites and electronics
By Christopher Mims, WSJ, Oct. 11, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/science/surroundings/solar-storm-early-warning-system-b6324524?mod=wknd_pos1
TWTW Abstract: The journalist begins:
“At some point, you get up, and the ability is out. You attempt to get info in your cellphone, and you haven’t any web entry. Progressively you uncover thousands and thousands of individuals throughout the U.S. are in the identical state of affairs–one that may convey months or years of rebuilding.
A big photo voltaic storm has hit Earth.
The chances are low that in any given 12 months a storm sufficiently big to trigger results this widespread will occur. And the severity of these impacts will rely on many components, together with the state of our planet’s magnetic area on that day. Nevertheless it’s a close to certainty that some type of this disaster will occur sometime, says Ian Cohen, a chief scientist who research heliophysics on the Johns Hopkins Utilized Physics Laboratory.
To get forward of this risk, a free federation of U.S. and worldwide authorities businesses, and tons of of scientists affiliated with these our bodies, have begun engaged on the best way to make predictions about what our Solar would possibly do. And a small however rising cadre of scientists argue that synthetic intelligence can be a vital part of efforts to offer us advance discover of such a storm.
Probably the most harmful of those photo voltaic storms is named a coronal mass ejection, when a gargantuan blob of charged particles is catapulted from the Solar’s environment by quickly shifting magnetic fields, at speeds in extra of 8,000 instances that of sound. These occur usually, however we’re not often conscious of them as a result of they solely have an effect on us after they occur to strike earth.
What makes these big blasts of particles so harmful to our energy grid and electronics is that, after they collide with Earth, the interplay of the solar’s magnetic area with our personal can induce giant currents in energy strains on Earth. For those who’ve ever moved a magnet backwards and forwards throughout a copper wire to light up a lightbulb in science class, this is similar impact–however on a worldwide scale. A photo voltaic storm can induce currents in energy strains which are sturdy sufficient to journey security mechanisms–and even critically harm elements of our power-distribution infrastructure.”
The writer concludes with examples of previous interruptions and by discussing a number of proposals for programs to foretell photo voltaic storms. He doesn’t go into the potential of hardening the grid to outlive such a storm, to incorporate interrupters equivalent to fuses and circuit breakers which are sized to forestall any arcing over them.
