The IEA’s newest World Power Outlook 2024 reveals photo voltaic overtaking nuclear, wind, hydro, gasoline and, lastly, coal, to turn into the world’s single-largest supply of electrical energy by 2033.
This photo voltaic surge will assist kickstart the “age of electrical energy”, the company says, the place quickly increasing clear electrical energy and “inherently” larger effectivity will push fossil fuels into decline.
Consequently, the world’s energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will attain a peak “imminently”, the IEA says, with its information indicating a turning level in 2025.
Different highlights from Carbon Temporary’s in-depth examination of the IEA’s newest outlook embrace:
- Renewables will develop 2.7-fold by 2030, wanting the “tripling” purpose set at COP28.
- Nonetheless, clear vitality is rising at an “unprecedented charge”, and can overtake coal, gasoline after which oil, to turn into the world’s largest supply of vitality “within the mid-2030s”.
- Low-carbon vitality, together with renewables and nuclear, will develop 44 per cent by 2030, including 48 exajoules (EJ) to world vitality provides.
- World vitality demand will solely rise by 34EJ (5 per cent) over the identical interval.
- This implies clear vitality will push every of the fossil fuels previous their peak by 2030.
- Electrical automobiles (EVs) at the moment are anticipated to displace 6m barrels of oil per day (mb/d) by 2030, up from a determine of 4mb/d by 2030 in final 12 months’s outlook.
Regardless of these modifications, the world is on observe to chop CO2 emissions to only 4 per cent under 2023 ranges by 2030, the company warns, leading to warming of two.4°C above pre-industrial temperatures.
It says there’s an “more and more slender, however nonetheless achievable” path to staying under 1.5°C, which would wish extra clear electrical energy, quicker electrification and a 33 per cent lower in emissions by 2030.
This 12 months, in gentle of heightened geopolitical dangers and uncertainties, the IEA explores “sensitivities” round its core outlook. These embrace slower (or quicker) uptake of electrical automobiles (EVs), in addition to quicker progress in data-centre masses and extra heatwave-driven demand for air con.
The company maintains that, even when these sensitivities are mixed, world demand for coal, oil and gasoline – in addition to CO2 emissions – would peak no quite a lot of years later than anticipated.
World vitality outlook
The IEA’s annual World Power Outlook (WEO) is revealed each autumn. It’s broadly considered one of the influential annual contributions to the understanding of local weather and vitality tendencies.
The outlook explores a variety of eventualities, representing totally different doable futures for the worldwide vitality system. These are developed utilizing the IEA’s “World Power and Local weather Mannequin”.
The 1.5°C-compatible “net-zero emissions by 2050” (NZE) situation was launched in 2021 and up to date in September 2023. The NZE is revised once more within the WEO 2024 to replicate the truth that world CO2 emissions reached one other report excessive final 12 months, fairly than falling.
The report says that the trail to 1.5°C is “more and more slender, however nonetheless achievable”. Nonetheless, it provides:
“Yearly during which world emissions rise and actions fall quick of what’s wanted for the long run makes this pathway steeper and more durable to climb.”
Alongside the NZE is the “introduced pledges situation” (APS), during which governments are given the good thing about the doubt and assumed to satisfy all of their local weather objectives on time and in full.
Lastly, the “said insurance policies situation” (STEPS) represents “the prevailing course of journey for the vitality system, primarily based on an in depth evaluation of present coverage settings”. Right here, the IEA appears to be like not at what governments are saying, however what they’re really doing.
Annex B of the report breaks down the insurance policies and targets included in every situation. In impact, the IEA is judging the seriousness of every goal and whether or not it is going to be adopted via.
For instance, the provisions of the European Inexperienced Deal are included within the STEPS. However the EU goal to chop emissions to 55 per cent under 1990 ranges by 2030 is just met beneath the APS.
Since final 12 months’s report, some 38 nations answerable for a 3rd of worldwide energy-related CO2 emissions have launched new clean-energy measures, the IEA says.
It mentions South Korea’s eleventh electrical energy plan, which “features a vital enlargement of nuclear, wind and photo voltaic”, and the new UK authorities “carry[ing] the de-facto ban on new onshore wind”.
(It says there have additionally been “some rollbacks” of local weather coverage over the previous 12 months, corresponding to Javier Milei’s reforms in Argentina, however the world affect of those is “comparatively small”.)
The report emphasises that “not one of the eventualities must be considered as a forecast”. It provides:
“Our situation evaluation is designed to tell decision-makers as they think about choices, to not predict how they’ll act.”
Earlier this 12 months, some US politicians and analysts criticised the IEA’s work, particularly, its suggestion in WEO 2023 that demand for oil, coal and gasoline would every peak earlier than 2030. Additionally they argued that the IEA was straying from its core deal with vitality safety.
On the time, the company defended its strategy in a response to Senate Republicans.
This 12 months’s version goes on to reiterate the IEA’s view that fossil fuels will peak this decade – and pushes again on the concept local weather change and clear vitality are outdoors its mission.
It says that “extra environment friendly, cleaner vitality techniques can cut back vitality safety dangers” and {that a} “complete strategy to vitality safety…wants to increase past conventional fuels”.
In his foreword to the report, IEA govt director Fatih Birol provides:
“The idea of vitality safety goes properly past safeguarding towards conventional dangers to grease and pure gasoline provides, as necessary as that is still for the worldwide economic system.”
He says that, along with these points, vitality safety consists of entry to inexpensive vitality provides, safe provide chains for clean-energy applied sciences and coping with the rising menace of maximum climate disruption to vitality techniques. Birol’s foreword continues:
“The evaluation on this 12 months’s outlook reinforces my long-held conviction that vitality safety and local weather motion go hand-in-hand…It is because deploying cost-competitive clear vitality applied sciences represents an enduring resolution not just for bringing down emissions, but in addition for decreasing reliance on fuels which were susceptible to volatility and disruption.”
Discussing the controversy over fossil gas peaking in a press briefing to launch this 12 months’s report, Birol stated that the newest information – and the outlooks of a number of main worldwide oil and gasoline corporations – had “confirmed and reconfirmed” the IEA’s place on oil demand.
Birol stated press experiences had described the newest information as “vindication” for the IEA’s forecast of minimal progress in oil demand this 12 months. However he added: “It’s not a vindication of the IEA, it’s a vindication of numbers and goal evaluation.”
Nonetheless, this 12 months’s outlook places additional emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding its eventualities. It devotes a complete chapter to exploring “sensitivities”, corresponding to slower progress in EV gross sales or a extra fast escalation of heatwaves driving demand for air con.
Even when these sensitivities are mixed in ways in which would sluggish local weather motion, nonetheless, the IEA says that oil demand nonetheless peaks and begins to say no by 2035. Equally, world CO2 emissions can be lower than 2 per cent greater in 2030 and 1 per cent in 2035 than within the core outlook.
‘Age of electrical energy’
A central theme of this 12 months’s outlook is the concept the worldwide vitality system is coming into a brand new period, outlined by fast progress in electrical energy demand and a surge in clear electrical energy provides.
In a press launch accompanying the report, Birol calls this new period the “age of electrical energy”, in distinction to the sooner “age of coal” and “age of oil”. (The “golden age of gasoline”, predicted by the IEA in 2012, was prematurely delivered to an finish by the worldwide vitality disaster, pushed by excessive gasoline costs.)
Birol says “the way forward for the vitality system is electrical” and that it’s “shifting at pace” in direction of “more and more be[ing] primarily based on clear sources of electrical energy”. Within the report foreword he provides:
“The most recent outlook additionally confirms that the contours of a brand new, extra electrified vitality system have gotten more and more evident, with main implications on how we meet rising demand for vitality companies. Clear electrical energy is the long run, and one of many hanging findings of this outlook is how briskly demand for electrical energy is about to rise, with the equal of the electrical energy use of the world’s ten largest cities being added to world demand every year.”
The IEA says that electrical energy demand is about to rise six occasions quicker than world vitality demand general, within the years out to 2035, having solely been twice as quick since 2010.
Furthermore, regardless of a fast acceleration in recent times, clear electrical energy has not but grown quick sufficient to satisfy rising demand, leaving area for fossil-fueled energy to proceed increasing.
World photo voltaic capability is now 40-times bigger than it was in 2010 and wind six occasions bigger, the outlook notes, and a report 560 gigawatts (GW) of renewables had been added in 2023.
But progress in clear electrical energy provides has nonetheless fallen wanting rising demand, which means coal energy has climbed 23 per cent since 2010 and gasoline by 36 per cent, elevating emissions within the sector by 20 per cent.
That is now set to alter. The report says:
“It’s now cheaper to construct onshore wind and solar energy initiatives than new fossil-fuel crops nearly all over the place all over the world, and the financial arguments stay sturdy even when contemplating the accompanying funding required to deal with their variability of era.”
Renewables are solely on observe to increase 2.7-fold from 2022 to 2030 – wanting the tripling goal set at COP28 – however clear electrical energy will nonetheless outstrip rising demand, out to 2030 and past.
The IEA information reveals that the quantity of electrical energy generated from solar energy alone is about to quadruple from 2023 ranges by 2030 – and to climb greater than nine-fold by 2050.
Which means photo voltaic will overtake nuclear, hydro and wind in 2026, gasoline in 2031 – after which coal by 2033 – to turn into the world’s largest supply of electrical energy, as proven within the determine under.
Together with a doubling of wind era and extra modest features for nuclear and hydro by 2030, clear electrical energy will push coal energy into reverse, declining 13 per cent by 2030 and 34 per cent by 2035.
(The outlook sees modest progress of 6 per cent by 2030 for gasoline energy, however most of this could be erased by 2035 as clear electrical energy provides proceed to increase.)
World electrical energy era by supply, TWh, 2010-2050. Supply: World Power Outlook 2024.
The IEA says that China was accountable for 60 per cent of worldwide renewable installations final 12 months – and can add 60 per cent of recent capability out to 2030. Which means by the early 2030s, photo voltaic era in China alone is about to exceed the US’ present whole electrical energy demand.
Notably, this 12 months’s report consists of one other vital enhance to the outlook for photo voltaic beneath present coverage settings.
The IEA now sees world photo voltaic capability exceeding 16,000GW by 2050, some 30 per cent greater than anticipated final 12 months and almost 11-times greater than it thought in 2015, as proven within the determine under.
By 2023, the world had already put in 1,610GW of photo voltaic capability. This comfortably exceeded the 1,405GW of capability that the IEA had anticipated in 2050, beneath prevailing coverage settings in its 2015 world vitality outlook, launched earlier than the Paris Settlement later that 12 months.
Previous and anticipated future world photo voltaic capability, gigawatts, 2010-2050, in IEA world vitality outlooks from 2015 (“new insurance policies situation”), 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 (“said insurance policies situation”).
Equally, this 12 months’s outlook says battery storage capability will attain 1,630GW by 2030. Solely two years in the past, it had stated battery capability would attain simply 1,296GW by 2050.
Along with elevating the outlook for photo voltaic and storage, nonetheless, this 12 months’s report additionally consists of considerably greater world electrical energy demand, which has been revised upwards by 5 per cent in 2030.
This 1,700 terawatt-hour (TWh) revision to world demand in 2030 – almost equal to present electrical energy use in India – is way bigger than the 1,000TWh adjustment for photo voltaic.
Consequently, the IEA has additionally raised its outlook for coal energy in 2030 by almost 900TWh.
The IEA says that greater electrical energy demand is “primarily” all the way down to “elevated gentle business exercise, notably in China, a lot of it related to a fast rise in clean-technology manufacturing”.
Different elements embrace faster-than-expected adoption of EVs, extra fast electrification in business in creating nations and the rise of knowledge centres.
(The IEA, nonetheless, pours chilly water on over-hyped reporting of AI-driven progress in data-centre electrical energy demand, which it sees accounting for barely 3 per cent of progress to 2030, general.)
Alongside progress in wind and photo voltaic, the report stresses the necessity for “a large set of dispatchable low-emissions sources, together with hydropower, bioenergy and nuclear energy”.
It additionally emphasises the necessity for rising funding in electrical energy grids and storage. Spending in these areas is at present solely two-thirds of funding in renewables, whereas parity shall be wanted to facilitate clear electrical energy enlargement and guarantee resilience to excessive climate and cyberattacks.
Fossil fuels peak by 2030
The “age of electrical energy” can have necessary implications for the present fossil-fuelled vitality system, the report says. These embrace a discount within the charge of worldwide vitality demand progress, at the same time as demand for “vitality companies” – corresponding to warmth and mobility – rises quickly within the creating world.
Explaining this obvious paradox, the IEA says that a lot of the vitality launched by burning fossil fuels is misplaced as waste warmth. In distinction, a “extra electrified, renewables-rich system is inherently extra environment friendly”. This implies much less vitality shall be required to ship the identical vitality companies.
For instance, electrical applied sciences corresponding to EVs and warmth pumps ship mobility and warmth far more effectively than inner combustion engines or fossil gas boilers, the report says.
Because the “age of electrical energy” features tempo, sources of vitality demand throughout all sectors of the economic system shall be more and more electrified, together with heating, cooling, mobility and industrial processes.
This implies the share of remaining vitality consumption met by electrical energy will rise from 17 per cent in 2010 and 20 per cent in 2023 to 24 per cent by 2030 and 32 per cent by 2050, the outlook says – a greater than 50 per cent rise on present ranges of electrification.
(Earlier this 12 months, the Rocky Mountain Institute stated China had “leapfrogged” different main nations by way of fast electrification, changing into what it termed the “first main electrostate”. Electrical energy already accounts for 26 per cent of its vitality consumption and can attain almost 45 per cent by 2050.)
Notably, the IEA has additionally been edging up its outlook for electrification, reflecting repeated boosts to its view on the deployment of electrical applied sciences corresponding to EVs and warmth pumps. In 2015, it solely anticipated electrical energy to satisfy 26 per cent of ultimate demand in 2050.
The rise of electrification, fed by increasing clear electrical energy sources, is now on the cusp of sending fossil fuels into decline, the outlook reveals. As famous above, this 12 months’s report reiterates the company’s view that coal, oil and gasoline will every attain a peak this decade. It says:
“Within the STEPS, coal demand begins to say no round 2025, whereas oil and pure gasoline demand each peak in direction of the tip of the last decade.”
Certainly, the outlook information reveals world vitality provide rising 34EJ (5 per cent) by 2030, with this progress simply outpaced by clean-energy enlargement of 48EJ (44 per cent). Consequently, fossil fuels in combination shall be pushed into decline, as proven within the determine under.
World use of fossil fuels, exajoules, 1965-2050. Chart reveals historic use (black), the pre-Paris coverage baseline (dashed line, 2015 “present insurance policies situation”), coverage in 2021-2024 (shades of gray, “said insurance policies eventualities”), in addition to pledges in 2021-2024 (blue, “introduced pledges eventualities”) and the IEA’s prompt paths to staying under 1.5°C in 2021-2024 (pink, “net-zero emissions by 2050 eventualities”). Supply: Carbon Temporary evaluation of IEA World Power Outlooks.
The chart above reveals how shifts within the world coverage and expertise panorama because the 2015 Paris Settlement have remodeled the outlook for fossil-fuel progress.
As an alternative of the continuation of historic progress charges anticipated earlier than Paris, the IEA has in recent times shifted its outlook, to a peak and more and more steep decline in fossil-fuel demand.
Certainly, this 12 months’s report factors to fossil-fuel demand beneath present coverage settings declining at a charge that’s almost consistent with the local weather pledges nations had made in 2021.
For instance, the report says that China’s fast uptake of EVs is spurring a “main slowdown” in oil demand progress globally, which is “wrong-footing oil producers”. It explains:
“China has been the engine of oil-market progress in latest a long time, however that engine is now switching over to electrical energy.”
Certainly, the rise of electrical mobility all over the world is about to displace 6mb/d of oil demand by 2030, the outlook says, up from the 4mb/d it anticipated final 12 months.
It notes that regardless of destructive reporting, world EV gross sales had been up 25 per cent within the first half of 2024, with China accounting for 80 per cent of the rise, however the remainder of the world’s market additionally up 10 per cent.
Nonetheless, the chart above illustrates the big hole between the present trajectory of the worldwide vitality system and what can be wanted to satisfy current nationwide local weather pledges, not to mention the Paris Settlement goal of limiting warming to “well-below” 2°C or 1.5°C.
Inadequate progress on emissions
This 12 months’s outlook places the hole between local weather ambition and the world’s present trajectory into stark aid, saying that prevailing coverage settings would seemingly see warming attain 2.4°C this century.
Reflecting the marginally greater outlook for coal use within the quick time period, however extra fast fossil gas declines within the medium and longer phrases, this 2.4°C evaluation is identical as final 12 months’s report.
This mix of modifications is illustrated within the determine under, exhibiting how the outlook for world energy-related CO2 emissions (gray line) has modified since 2015 (dashes). The IEA now says CO2 emissions will peak “imminently”, with its information pointing in direction of a peak in 2025.
(Final 12 months, the outlook stated emissions would peak by 2025 on the newest.)
World CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and business, billion tonnes, 1965-2050. Chart reveals historic emissions (black), pre-Paris coverage baseline (dashed gray, 2015 “present insurance policies situation”), coverage in 2021-2024 (gray, “said insurance policies eventualities”), in addition to pledges in 2024 (blue, “introduced pledges situation”) and the IEA’s prompt path to staying under 1.5°C (pink, “net-zero emissions by 2050 situation”). Supply: Carbon Temporary evaluation of IEA World Power Outlooks.
The chart above illustrates how new insurance policies and technological progress because the Paris Settlement are bending the curve of worldwide CO2 emissions away from the three.5°C of warming anticipated in 2015.
Nonetheless, it additionally reveals the huge hole that will must be bridged in an effort to meet nationwide local weather pledges for 2030 and for reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century (blue line). And it reveals the massive scale of the hole to the “more and more slender, however nonetheless achievable” path to 1.5°C.
Whereas present coverage settings would lower world CO2 emissions to 4 per cent under 2023 ranges by 2030, in accordance with the IEA, a far bigger 33 per cent discount can be wanted for 1.5°C.
A separate report from the IEA, revealed final month, reveals how nations may shut most of this hole “by absolutely implementing the 2030 objectives they agreed at COP28”.
These objectives included doubling the speed of vitality effectivity enhancements and tripling world renewable capability by 2030. Collectively, these two components “may present bigger emissions reductions by 2030 than anything”, the outlook says.
It reinforces the important thing modifications that will be wanted to get on observe for present local weather pledges – which might restrict warming in 2100 to round 1.7C – or to restrict warming to 1.5°C.
In broad phrases, this could imply even quicker electrification and deployment of clean-energy applied sciences, in addition to taking fast motion to chop methane emissions from the oil and gasoline business.
(As an alternative of electrical energy’s share of ultimate vitality use rising from 20 per cent to 32 per cent by 2050, as beneath present coverage settings, electrification charges would double to 42 per cent by 2050, if local weather pledges are met, and would almost triple to 55 per cent, if the world will get on observe for 1.5°C.)
Extra particularly, the IEA factors to “seven key clean-energy applied sciences”: photo voltaic; wind; nuclear; EVs; warmth pumps; low-emissions hydrogen; and carbon seize and storage.
The report says the world has “the necessity and the capability to go a lot quicker” in these areas, which – in contrast to the present trajectory – would convey world emissions right into a “significant decline”.
Spotlighting the necessity for a optimistic final result in upcoming climate-finance discussions on the COP29 UN summit in November in Baku, Azerbaijan, the IEA says that top financing prices and mission dangers are limiting the unfold of those clean-energy applied sciences in creating nations.
Concluding his report foreword, the IEA’s Birol emphasises the alternatives dealing with governments, buyers and customers. He writes:
“This WEO highlights, as soon as once more, the alternatives that may transfer the vitality system in a safer and extra sustainable course. I urge decision-makers all over the world to make use of this evaluation to know how the vitality panorama is altering, and the right way to speed up this clear vitality transformation in ways in which profit individuals’s lives and future prosperity.”
The outlook warns that decision-makers “too typically entrench the issues in at present’s vitality system, fairly than pushing it in direction of a cleaner and safer path”. It provides: “[L]ocking in fossil gas use has penalties…the prices of local weather inaction…develop greater by the day.”
This story was revealed with permission from Carbon Temporary.
