Australia and Pacific island nations had hoped to go away this 12 months’s international local weather talks in Azerbaijan having gained a bid to host the 2026 summit.
As an alternative, that call on who will host the thirty first “convention of the events” (COP31) has been deferred till June subsequent 12 months – after Australia’s subsequent federal election. Turkey, the one different nation within the working to host COP31, has resisted lobbying efforts to influence them to drop out.
The seven-month delay dangers a much less bold summit in 2026, as a result of it takes time to construct consensus for international initiatives. An honest run-up is required to develop an bold motion agenda.
Tens of hundreds of individuals might be anticipated for a fortnight of negotiations, with satellite tv for pc occasions held throughout the nation and the Pacific.
The joint Australia–Pacific COP bid has had extra help than Turkey. So moderately than wait one other seven months, right here’s why it’s in all our pursuits to push forward with planning for 2026.
Auditioning for COP31 president
Australia’s local weather minister Chris Bowen performed a vital position at this 12 months’s negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan. Dubbed the “Finance COP”, the COP29 talks centered on offering much-needed funds to assist poorer nations handle the local weather disaster.
Bowen put his hand as much as work along with his Egyptian counterpart Yasmine Fouad to discover a touchdown zone for a brand new international consensus on local weather finance.
This was tough, essential work. Local weather finance is the grand discount on the coronary heart of worldwide local weather cooperation, and is essential to constructing belief. Reactions to the COP29 outcomes on finance recommend rich nations might want to commit extra funds to assist susceptible international locations pay the steep payments arising from local weather change.
By taking part in a central position within the discussions, Bowen was successfully auditioning for the a part of president of the UN local weather talks in 2026 (if he’s nonetheless in authorities when Australia hosts COP31). However his efforts are but to be rewarded.
How one can host UN local weather talks
Internet hosting rights are shared between 5 UN nation groupings on a rotational foundation. The ultimate choice is made by consensus.
This 12 months, a bunch of 29 largely western European international locations is liable for the COP31 choice.
Australia’s bid was supported by different nations within the group together with the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada and New Zealand.
However Turkey additionally put in a critical bid. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attended COP29 to garner help for Turkey to host the talks.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met with Erdoğan ultimately week’s G20 summit in Rio De Janeiro, whereas Bowen made a last-minute sprint to the Turkish capital Ankara to encourage Turkey to withdraw, with no success.
The partnership with Pacific island international locations might finally get Australia’s bid over the road. Pacific nations have been leaders within the battle to sort out the local weather disaster for many years and their ethical authority is required now greater than ever.
A vital alternative
Way over a two-week talkfest, the summit may assist pave the way in which for Australia’s financial success in a world quickly shifting from fossil fuels to wash vitality. It could additionally assist safe our place within the Pacific throughout a time of rising strategic rivalry.
Internet hosting the UN local weather talks can also be an opportunity to bolster local weather motion at a time when international cooperation is beneath pressure. US President-elect Donald Trump is more likely to tear up US local weather targets and withdraw from the Paris Settlement.
As a center energy, Australia won’t ever have the ability to dominate the worldwide scene, and has an overriding nationwide curiosity in a rules-based international order. This is applicable equally to guidelines and agreements on commerce, safety and local weather. Internet hosting COP31 is an opportunity to pursue accountable middle-power diplomacy to shore up international dedication to local weather motion.
A number of Australian cities have put up their hand to carry the COP31 summit, together with Brisbane, Sydney and Perth. However Adelaide has a very sturdy case.
South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskus joined Bowen in Baku to spruik the state’s credentials, together with its purpose to be 100 per cent powered by renewables by 2027.
South Australia would use COP31 to attempt to appeal to funding and develop clear vitality exports, with a give attention to utilizing wind and solar energy to supply inexperienced hydrogen, inexperienced iron and inexperienced metal on the Whyalla steelworks.
Conventional steelmaking could be very polluting and liable for roughly 10 per cent of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions.
Australia is the world’s largest exporter of uncooked iron ore, however is nicely positioned to export more-valuable, and lower-polluting, inexperienced iron to main economies in our area. The potential export worth of inexperienced iron is estimated to be $295 billion per 12 months, or thrice the present worth of iron ore exports.
Spotlighting hosts’ fossil gas emissions
There have been rising concern the UN local weather talks aren’t delivering bold motion to shift away from fossil fuels. Local weather activist Greta Thunberg describes the talks as “blah blah blah” – fiddling whereas the world burns.
Additional eroding confidence, the talks have been hosted by a succession of petro-states which can be main oil and gasoline exporters (Egypt in 2022, United Arab Emirates in 2023 and Azerbaijan in 2024).
Main local weather consultants – together with former UN Secretary Normal Ban Ki Moon and UN local weather chief Christiana Figueres – issued an open letter at COP29 calling for pressing reform of the COP course of. They recommend solely nations dedicated to transitioning away from fossil vitality needs to be eligible to host the talks.
Right now, Australia stays one of many world’s largest exporters of coal and gasoline. Emissions from exported fossil fuels are greater than double these from Australia’s whole home economic system. Earlier than COP31, Australia could be anticipated to develop and share a plan to section out fossil gas manufacturing.
These expectations would come from near residence. Vanuatu’s local weather envoy Ralph Regenvanu final week mentioned Australia was “not appearing in good religion” by selling local weather credentials whereas persevering with to approve new coal and gasoline tasks.
Vanuatu and 9 different Pacific international locations are amongst a bunch of countries calling for a world treaty to handle the section out of fossil gas manufacturing.
Australia will likely be anticipated to set an bold goal to chop emissions within the subsequent decade. All international locations are because of set 2035 emissions targets subsequent 12 months. The UK has already set a goal to chop emissions by 81 per cent by 2035.
Nevertheless, each Albanese and opposition chief Peter Dutton have instructed they gained’t announce new local weather targets earlier than the subsequent federal election, due by Could 2025.
Two years from now, there’s each likelihood Australia and the Pacific will likely be internet hosting the world. This might be a golden alternative to work collectively to deal with a shared risk. Whether or not or not we find yourself internet hosting, we have to get cracking now.
Dr Wesley Morgan is a analysis affiliate on the Institute of Local weather Danger and Response at UNSW.
This text was first revealed at The Dialog.
