Australia and Türkiye went into COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, with a spread of diplomatic objectives, however none larger than every nation’s hopes to be introduced because the host of the UN local weather summit in 2026. For Ufuk and myself, the competitors between our respective nations trickled down right into a every day banter, and at instances, fierce rivalry.
For Türkiye, that is the second time in six years that it has put its identify ahead as a possible COP host. In 2019, the nation challenged the UK for internet hosting rights of COP26. Since then, president Erdoğan renewed his nation’s internet hosting push, bolstered by his attendance at current UN local weather summits, together with final yr’s occasion in Dubai as one of many few G20 leaders current.
If profitable, COP31 would seemingly be hosted within the coastal metropolis of Antalya.
For Australia, the present prime minister planted the concept of internet hosting the UN summit quickly after coming to workplace in Could 2022. In November that yr, Australia formally introduced its bid to host the UN summit, in partnership with ‘the Pacific’. Since then, many in Australian authorities circles assumed it was a certain factor however have since been shocked on the resilience of the Turkish bid.
If Australia is profitable, it may very well be hosted in various the nation’s main cities, however Adelaide is trying just like the most definitely candidate. The state’s premier hosted a welcome reception at COP29 this yr, spruiking the chance that it may very well be the primary COP hosted in a metropolis run on 100 per cent renewables.
After a current assembly within the Turkish capital of Ankara final week, the Turkish local weather envoy famous that each nations had reached a “gentleman’s settlement” forward of the upcoming Australian election in Could.
With neither nation involved in backing down, the ultimate internet hosting choice has been deferred to June subsequent yr, the place 29 largely western European nations must attain a consensus choice on the place the 2026 local weather summit will probably be held.
Till then, the rivalry between Ufuk and myself is bound to proceed.
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We haven’t had a UN local weather summit within the southern hemisphere for a decade, and as a co-host with the Pacific, COP31 may very well be a vital second to give attention to the area.
Christopher Wright, local weather technique advisor, Ember
Whatever the choice, this would be the first COP in years hosted in a rustic largely depending on coal energy. This comes after a sequence of summits hosted in oil and gas-dependent economies, asking the query of whether or not or not coal may play a vital position as soon as once more, because it did in Glasgow. There, the UK authorities pushed by way of the first formal recognition of the necessity to phase-down unabated coal energy.
To reply this query, we’ve come collectively to attempt to define what we predict are a number of the advantages, challenges and alternatives if both of our home-nations are chosen to host the UN local weather talks in two years’ time:
First, let’s speak in regards to the objective to triple renewables. What makes Türkiye or Australia a useful location, so near the 2030 deadline?
Ufuk: Türkiye has set an bold goal to quadruple its present 30 GW of mixed wind and photo voltaic capability, aiming for 120 GW by 2035. Demonstrating its dedication to this objective, the nation has greater than doubled its put in photo voltaic capability within the final two years, growing from 9 GW to 19 GW.
Whereas solar energy has seen exceptional progress, wind vitality has additionally made important strides. As of 2023, Türkiye’s wind energy share in electrical energy era (11 per cent) is increased than that of G20 nations like Italy and France.
Chris: Australia has the world’s highest rooftop photo voltaic penetration on the planet and has reworked our renewable vitality capability in the previous couple of years. Again in 2015, wind and photo voltaic contributed simply 7 per cent of electrical energy (18 terawatt-hour or TWh). This grew to twenty-eight per cent (77 TWh) final yr and we’re aiming to succeed in 82 per cent by 2030.
The state the place COP31 may very well be held — South Australia — is aiming for 100 per cent renewable vitality by 2027 and already usually reaches this mark in Summer time. It’s affordable to anticipate that COP31 in Australia may very well be powered solely with renewables and that batteries will probably be an enormous a part of the ultimate package deal.
Now, let’s discuss coal. How may your nation push ahead international debates round coal?
Ufuk: Not like Australia, Türkiye isn’t a fossil gasoline exporter. Even its coal-fired energy era, which accounts for 36 per cent of electrical energy manufacturing, closely depends on imports with over half of the coal used being sourced from overseas. Moreover, Türkiye’s home coal energy crops are getting old and sometimes function under full capability as a result of low calorific worth and recurring outages. These elements, in addition to our optimistic geopolitical relationships with China, India, Russia and India, make Türkiye a extra beneficial candidate for initiating coal phase-down discussions in an efficient method, and maybe on a uniquely international scale.
Chris: Australia is presently present process one of many quickest coal energy transitions on the planet and expects to decommission 90 per cent of its coal energy crops by 2034. Nevertheless, Ufuk’s proper and we export way more coal than we use. That’s the place Australia may make an actual mark on COP31. If we’re chosen to host, I’ll be pushing the federal government to announce an finish to new thermal coal mines at COP31, and hope to increase present pledges specializing in coal energy, to coal mining as properly.
Lastly, what else may be a key end result of a COP hosted in your nation that simply wouldn’t be attainable anyplace else?
Ufuk: I see this as a chance for Türkiye to lift consciousness in regards to the vitality transition and encourage the nation to tackle a extra proactive position within the area. Throughout my go to to Baku this yr, I witnessed an analogous optimistic affect in Azerbaijan. In Türkiye, even vitality professionals usually lack consciousness of or engagement with COP occasions, and the Ministry of Vitality performs solely a restricted position. The nation tends to isolate itself inside its pavilion. Internet hosting such an occasion may revitalise Türkiye’s official delegation and reintegrate the nation into the worldwide dialog.
Chris: We haven’t had a UN local weather summit within the southern hemisphere for a decade, and as a co-host with the Pacific, COP31 may very well be a vital second to give attention to the area. This is able to additionally imply coping with adaptation in a brand new approach, but in addition specializing in the largest drivers of short-term warming which are creating existential dangers for Pacific nations. Forward of the 2030 deadline, Australia’s distinctive coal, gasoline and agriculture sectors imply it may additionally give attention to making a coalition to mitigate the short-term warming impacts of methane world wide.
One factor we each agree on is that COP31 won’t solely be a key second in our nationwide vitality transitions, however it should additionally push ahead the worldwide effort to section down coal.
Nevertheless, the diplomatic problem will probably be important. India has already put in a potential bid for COP33 in 2028 and will probably be delicate to any suspected singling out of its coal sector with out responsive assist. For both host, discovering the steadiness between pragmatism and chance will probably be key.
By 2026, coal demand on the planet’s largest economies ought to have reached its peak, however it would nonetheless require unbelievable diplomatic nuance to both finish new thermal coal mines or fast-track the worldwide transition to section it down.
This text was initially revealed on Dialogue Earth beneath a Artistic Commons licence.
