A brand new report from the Institute for Vitality Economics and Monetary Evaluation (IEEFA) says U.S. coal-fired energy crops have as a lot as $6.5 billion of unused coal stock, primarily based on the newest figures on gas stockpiles from the U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA).
The IEEFA on Dec. 16 stated the nation’s coal-fired energy stations at present are burning solely about 1 million tons of coal each day, half the quantity the business was utilizing in 2015. The “days of burn,” or the quantity of coal available divided by the quantity being burned every day, for coal-fired energy crops at current is about 4 months on common, in keeping with the IEEFA. The group stated most operators would normally preserve a 50- to 60-day provide available. Authorities information reveals coal-fired technology accounts for about 16% of U.S. electrical energy manufacturing, about half the share it held a decade in the past.
The EIA stated U.S. coal-fired energy crops had about 138 million tons of coal available on the finish of November. The IEEFA primarily based its evaluation on a $47.22 per ton common price of coal delivered to U.S. energy crops (together with transportation) from January via September of this yr.
‘More durable to Burn Coal With out Shedding Cash’
The IEEFA in its report stated the 138 million tons of coal at the moment stockpiled is identical quantity anticipated to be produced by basins in Appalachia subsequent yr.
Seth Feaster and Dennis Wamsted, authors of the IEEFA report, wrote, “No energy producer needs that a lot cash idly sitting round. Nevertheless it has turn into a lot tougher to burn that coal with out shedding cash. Low gasoline costs, in addition to elevated photo voltaic and wind technology, have made coal-fired electrical energy much less and fewer aggressive.
“Intervals with excessive electrical energy costs throughout summer time warmth waves and winter chilly snaps even have turn into fewer and farther aside. In consequence, U.S. coal crops now collectively burn simply 1 million tons a day, half as a lot as in 2015, primarily based on the 12-month common via September. At that fee, it could take energy producers greater than 4 months to make use of up all of the coal sitting round.”
The IEEFA report stated that deliveries of coal to U.S. energy crops “have already been falling steadily for greater than 15 years, from greater than 80 million tons a month in 2008 to about 30 million a month in 2024. With large stockpiles at energy crops that utilities want to make use of, that pattern seems to be set to proceed in 2025, and will result in some months with lower than 20 million tons in deliveries.”
Highest Stockpiles in Texas, Indiana
The EIA stated that as of September 2024, coal-fired energy crops in Texas had about 12.3 million tons of coal stockpiled, accounting for about 10% of the U.S. complete. Indiana coal-fired crops ranked second in stockpiles, with about 8.8 million tons. State information reveals there are 14 working coal-fired energy crops in Texas. There are 15 working coal-fired stations in Indiana, in keeping with state information.
The EIA in its December Brief-Time period Vitality Outlook report stated its expects U.S. coal consumption will rise barely subsequent yr. The company forecasts a 1% improve, to 409 million brief tons (MMst), from 2024, in step with the group’s expectation of a 1% improve in electrical energy consumption in 2025. That comes after coal consumption dropped by 5% from 2023 to this yr.
The EIA stated simply 3 GW of coal-fired technology was retired this yr, after 11 GW was shuttered in 2023. The company stated, although, it expects extra retirements of coal-fired technology capability—as a lot as 11 GW—in 2025, partly because of extra renewable power capability coming on-line. The IEEFA stated it expects as a lot as 13 GW of the remaining 173 GW of U.S. coal-fired technology will probably be retired or transformed to pure gasoline subsequent yr.
The EIA within the December report stated it expects 25 GW of solar energy will enter service subsequent yr, together with 9 GW of wind power capability. The company in its report stated the “mixture of a modest improve in consumption from working coal crops and a decline in coal manufacturing will scale back coal inventories held by energy crops from 131 MMst [million short tons] on the finish of this yr to 100 MMst by the tip of 2025.”
Coal-to-Fuel Conversions
Conversions of coal-fired energy models to burn pure gasoline, a frequent prevalence over the previous a number of years, are persevering with. Appalachian Energy, which serves clients in Virginia, West Virginia, and Tennessee, final week stated it may convert two of its coal-burning crops in West Virginia—John Amos and Mountaineer—to burn pure gasoline, which might allow the facility stations to maintain working relatively than being shut down by 2032. The corporate stated it has dominated out putting in carbon seize and storage (CCS) know-how on the crops.
“CCS has not been commercially demonstrated and isn’t anticipated to be developed in time to be a viable choice,” wrote Robert Jessee, Appalachian Energy’s vice chairman of producing property, in a submitting with state regulators. “Subsequently, to adjust to the [Environmental Protection Agency’s] GHG [greenhouse gas] rule the businesses should both convert their present coal-fired crops to gasoline or shut the crops down.”
Officers in Homer Metropolis, Pennsylvania, earlier this month stated the 2-GW Homer Metropolis Producing Station, a three-unit coal-fired energy plant that was closed final yr, could be restarted and burn pure gasoline. A neighborhood official stated the brand new gas-fired plant may have as a lot as 4 GW of technology capability, which might make it the most important gas-fired energy station within the U.S.
—Darrell Proctor is a senior editor for POWER.
