Southern Co. subsidiary Georgia Energy has proposed a pivot towards extending the lifetime of a number of current coal and pure gas-fired energy vegetation into the late 2030s—properly past earlier retirement timelines—citing rising electrical energy demand, regulatory constraints, and grid reliability dangers.
The utility’s 2025 Built-in Useful resource Plan (IRP), filed with the Georgia Public Service Fee (PSC) on Jan. 31, 2025, marks a strategic shift within the firm’s method to managing its provide and demand profile. Over the subsequent 10 years—between the winter of 2024/2025 and 2028/2029—the corporate expects its load forecast to surge to 9.4 GW. It expects 8.2 GW in load development over the subsequent six years alone—”a rise of greater than 2,200 MW in peak demand by the tip of 2030 when in comparison with projections within the 2023 IRP Replace,” the utility famous.
The IRP attributes this to “a rising pipeline of potential and dedicated massive load clients,” together with industrial initiatives like Hyundai’s EV Metaplant in Bryan County— which alone represents “the most important financial growth venture in Georgia’s historical past”—and the SK Innovation Battery Plant in Bartow County. As a complete, the IRP reveals that Georgia Energy expects a 7% compound annual load development fee via 2031, fueled by a 22.8 GW lively pipeline of potential and dedicated business and industrial (C&I) initiatives as of the second quarter of 2024—6.8 GW larger than 2023 projections.
“The dimensions of many of those initiatives far exceeds historic annual norms, with some particular person initiatives surpassing 1,000 MW,” the IRP warns. “Along with the scale of the massive masses introduced by these new initiatives, most of the initiatives mirror a better load issue with around-the-clock operations, which requires a considerable quantity of era and constant vitality supply all through the day and evening versus solely throughout particular instances.”
Coal Fleet: Compliance Upgrades to Allow 14-Yr Extensions
Since 2007, Georgia Energy has retired 5,547 MW of capability, together with 4,787 MW of coal, 509 MW of oil, 132 MW of fuel/oil dual-fuel, 118 MW of oil-fired combustion generators, and 0.4 MW of hydro. At present, the utility operates an 18.5-GW fleet, balancing company-owned property and energy buy agreements (PPAs). Its era combine contains 3.9 GW of coal throughout two vegetation, 8 GW of pure fuel from mixed cycle and combustion turbine models, 1.1 GW of hydroelectric energy from 66 models throughout 15 vegetation, 2 GW of photo voltaic from owned and contracted initiatives, and 500 MW of battery vitality storage.
The 2025 IRP underscores the necessity “to spend money on its foundational assets” to take care of system reliability. Abandoning earlier plans to section out its remaining coal vegetation, the utility has proposed to increase operations on the 3.2-GW Plant Bowen—one of many world’s largest coal vegetation—past 2034 and preserve the 648-MW Plant Scherer on-line till 2038. The transfer marks a pointy shift from the corporate’s 2022 IRP, which slated Plant Bowen for retirement by 2027 and Plant Scherer Unit 3 by 2028.
Plant Bowen, positioned in Bartow County, would require compliance modifications to fulfill the Environmental Safety Company’s (EPA’s) lately finalized Supplemental Effluent Limitation Pointers (ELG) Rule regulating wastewater discharges by December 2029. The ELG controls will present Georgia Energy with compliance flexibility to fulfill the EPA’s Could 2024 finalized Carbon Air pollution Rule (111 GHG Guidelines), “enabling the pure fuel co-fire compliance pathway to be chosen in the course of the state plan growth course of,” the IRP says.
“Notably, the co-fire pathway within the 111 GHG Guidelines permits operation till December 31, 2038, whereas lowering reliance on pure fuel pipeline infrastructure and deferring the necessity for substitute capability till 2039.” The utility urged that the pathway is extra economical than the opposite 111 GHG Guidelines compliance choices—reminiscent of full-scale carbon seize—and reduces the necessity to procure new capability by 2032 or earlier. “Sustaining dispatchable era in north Georgia is essential for transmission system reliability,” it provides. “Contemplating the uncertainty surrounding future environmental laws and market situations, this method gives a cost-effective, versatile, and adaptive technique to make sure continued compliance and useful resource planning optionality.”
Plant Scherer, positioned in Monroe County, will comply with an identical compliance pathway, leveraging membrane-based expertise for wastewater remedy, which can possible be put in in 2028. Moreover, 187 MW of capability from Scherer Unit 3 will probably be allotted to Georgia Energy’s retail jurisdiction to bolster system reliability.
Pure Gasoline: $1.2B in Capability Upgrades
Whereas the utility had additionally moved to retire Plant Gaston, a 566-MW oil and fuel plant in Alabama, the 2025 IRP requires extending the operation of the plant’s 4 models, together with its oil-fired Unit A, past December 2028, assuming continued operation via the tip of 2034. The choice will “assist protect capability and add flexibility to the useful resource plan, given the power to retire the capability if projected load doesn’t materialize,” the IRP says.
It additionally proposes main upgrades at a number of fuel vegetation:
Plant McIntosh, positioned in Rincon, Georgia, will endure a 194 MW capability enhance with the set up of GE 7FA.05 high-efficiency generators at Items 10-11. Moreover, McIntosh Items 1A-8A will obtain staggered turbine replacements, including 74.4 MW of peaking capability between 2026 and 2032, bringing the entire plant capability to about 1,380 MW .
Plant McDonough, located in Smyrna, Georgia, a key pure fuel combined-cycle facility, will stay in operation via 2057, supporting baseload reliability with a complete capability of two,792 MW, with particular person unit capacities starting from 840 MW to 934 MW.
Plant Yates, positioned in Newnan, Georgia, initially slated for potential retirement, will proceed working till 2038. Items 6 and seven present a mixed capability of roughly 648 MW, whereas further models contribute to the plant’s general capability.
Nuclear Uprates for Bolstered Baseload Capability
As well as, the IRP outlines a major capability enlargement for Georgia Energy’s current nuclear fleet, which contains two boiling water reactors (BWR) at Plant Hatch in Baxley, Georgia (Items 1 and a pair of, totaling about 1,848 MW), and 4 pressurized water reactors at Plant Vogtle close to Waynesboro, Georgia (Items 1-4, totaling roughly 4,536 MW).
It plans prolonged energy uprates (EPU) at Plant Vogtle Items 1-2 and Plant Hatch Items 1-2 to extend their reactor thermal output—probably including as much as 112 MW of further nuclear era by 2032 whereas avoiding the necessity for brand new transmission infrastructure investments.
The deliberate capability positive factors comply with a phased schedule, with incremental will increase starting in 2028. The upgrades at Plant Hatc’s BWRs will even embrace a Most Prolonged Load Line Restrict (MELLA+) enhancement, which boosts thermal effectivity with out growing core circulation. Moreover, Georgia Energy is evaluating a transition to a 24-month refueling cycle at Vogtle Items 1-2 utilizing accident-tolerant gasoline (ATF), a transfer designed to increase unit runtimes and cut back refueling outages throughout its nuclear fleet.
Georgia Energy famous the investments will align with the Inflation Discount Act’s (IRA) Part 45Y manufacturing tax credit (PTCs), which may present 10 years of economic advantages for the extra capability. As well as, “The state of Georgia gives an [investment tax credits] for investments in new or current services. The upgrades to Plant Hatch are anticipated to qualify for five%, and the upgrades to Plant Vogtle are anticipated to qualify for 3%,” the IRP notes.
The upgrades may additionally qualify for Division of Power (DOE) Title 17 mortgage ensures. Notably, Georgia Energy additionally stated it’s exploring whether or not the incremental nuclear capability may be provided as a part of a carbon-free vitality subscription program—a transfer that might lower the web upgrades’ web value web value to non-participating clients and supply “entry to incremental clear vitality attributes to assist meet buyer particular wants.”
Renewables and Storage: Cautious Enlargement
The 2025 IRP maintains its dedication to an 11,000 MW renewable vitality portfolio by 2035 however acknowledges key system integration challenges. It means that the utility will request proposals (RFPs) in 2025 to obtain an extra 1,100 MW of renewables, together with 1,000 MW of utility-scale photo voltaic and 100 MW of distributed era. A separate 500 MW storage RFP is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2025, with an anticipated certification by the third quarter of 2027. Moreover, Georgia Energy will develop 80 MW of demonstration initiatives to guage the efficiency of four-hour battery storage techniques on the Military’s Fort Stewart web site.
The IRP additionally notably features a $127 million hydroelectric modernization funding throughout 9 services to increase important property’ operational life. Key initiatives embrace turbine and generator upgrades at Bartletts Ferry and Goat Rock and enhancements at Plant Tallulah, Plant Yonah, and Plant Wallace. “Approval to modernize the remaining hydro fleet will permit the Firm to totally acquire the advantages of enhanced fleet dispatch and operational effectivity of every river chain. The hydro modernization effort seeks to strategically plan initiatives whereas optimizing assets, design, planning, and execution of labor extra effectively than a longer-term piecemeal method,” the IRP notes.
Lastly, the IRP underscores strategic transmission planning to handle South-to-North transmission constraints, a rising concern as energy demand surges in metro Atlanta and different increasing areas. It outlines main transmission initiatives, such because the Heard County-Tenaska 500kV line (2025), Dresden-Talbot 500kV line (2029), and Hatch-Wadley 500kV line (2031), to bolster switch capability and system resilience. In the meantime, beneath the 2024 Georgia Built-in Transmission System (ITS) Ten-Yr Plan, the utility will proceed to guage infrastructure wants in coordination with Georgia Transmission Company (GTC), Municipal Electrical Authority of Georgia (MEAG Energy), and Dalton Utilities to make sure a cohesive, statewide method to grid reliability and enlargement.
For now, the IRP suggests the utility is eyeing $160 million in DOE Grid Resilience and Innovation Partnerships (GRIP) funding and DOE Title 17 loans to offset prices whereas increasing transmission infrastructure past the standard ten-year planning horizon. The measure aligns with FERC Order No. 1920’s push for long-term regional planning, it says.
Grid Reliability: New Reserve Margins
Nonetheless, echoing considerations expressed by utilities and energy corporations throughout the business, Georgia Energy’s 2025 IRP emphasizes an onslaught of reliability dangers, together with renewable intermittency, cold-weather fuel provide constraints, extended peak demand intervals, and elevated dependence on market purchases.
The utility warns that “the numerous presence of winter reliability dangers” is compounded by components reminiscent of “cold-weather-related unit outages, the penetration of photo voltaic assets, elevated reliance on pure fuel, and market buy availability.” As extra photo voltaic and battery storage assets are built-in into the grid, working reserves are rising more and more vital to handle surprising fluctuations in era and cargo, it notes. The 2025 IRP notably raises the summer time reserve margin from 16.25% to twenty%, although its winter reserve margin stays at 26%.
—Sonal Patel is a POWER senior editor (@sonalcpatel, @POWERmagazine).