Clear Power Canada is a clear vitality suppose tank on the Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser College. By means of media briefs, we intention to supply helpful factual and contextual data associated to Canada’s clear vitality transition. Please use this as a useful resource, and tell us if there are any matters that you just want to see for future media briefs.
World renewable energy era is rising at an unprecedented fee, pushed by the beneficial economics of wind and photo voltaic together with vitality safety issues round oil and fuel (largely brought on by latest wars), and emissions targets. A lot in order that new evaluation suggests international emissions from electrical energy era might peak this 12 months attributable to a surge in wind and solar energy.
Canada’s hydropower-rich grid is 84% non-emitting with variable renewables (basically wind and photo voltaic) at the moment making up 7% of the nation’s complete electrical energy era. Nevertheless, the Canada Power Regulator initiatives that this is able to rise to between 33% and 37% of electrical energy era in 2050 in a net-zero 2050. With research indicating that Canadian energy demand may double between now and 2050, the federal authorities not too long ago proposed the Clear Electrical energy Rules to assist make sure that Canada’s energy system stays each clear and reasonably priced within the years forward. Renewable energy, together with variable renewables, will clearly have a giant function to play in Canada’s vitality future, however its use has confronted criticism that’s typically based mostly on inaccurate or deceptive data.
The next temporary breaks down a few of the widespread misconceptions about the usage of variable renewable energy in Canada and around the globe.
Fantasy 1: “Renewables can contribute solely a small share of grid electrical energy as a result of they solely work when the wind blows and the solar shines”
- It’s true that wind and photo voltaic are variable assets that present most energy to the grid when the solar shines or the wind blows. Nevertheless, options are out there to enrich variable assets, from stronger grids and interconnections to demand-side measures (such because the sensible charging of electrical autos and industrial demand response), reasonably priced storage, and dispatchable energy provide. These choices can allow comparatively excessive shares of wind and photo voltaic on a grid.
- A have a look at different nations around the globe provides loads of examples of present wind and photo voltaic shares which are a lot greater than Canada’s at the moment, with some even greater than the 33% to 37% that the Canada Power Regulator initiatives for a Canadian net-zero future.
- Wind and photo voltaic accounted for 61% of electrical energy generated in Denmark in 2022. Different nations with comparatively excessive shares of wind and photo voltaic embody Uruguay (36%), Eire (34%), Germany and the Netherlands (32% every), the U.Okay. (29%), Chile (28%), and Australia (26%).
- Regionally, the EU-wide common share of electrical energy generated from wind and photo voltaic in 2022 was 22%. In Might 2023, wind and photo voltaic produced extra electrical energy than fossil fuels within the European Union for the primary full month on report. Nearly a 3rd of the EU’s electrical energy that month was generated from wind and photo voltaic (31%), whereas fossil fuels generated a report low of 27%.
- The typical within the G7 was 15%, simply above the international common of 12%.
- South of the border, the U.S. has a share of 15%, though with nice state-level variation. Over a 3rd of all U.S. states (18) generated greater than 20% of electrical energy from wind and photo voltaic in 2022. The U.S. states with the best shares had been Iowa (63%) and South Dakota (55%). Others with comparatively excessive shares embody main states like California (34%) and Texas (26%).
- A 2022 evaluation of the potential so as to add variable renewables to Canada’s electrical energy system discovered that a median renewables penetration fee of 54% might be realized, with even greater shares potential underneath sure measures.
Fantasy 2: “Renewables are costly, and the price of vitality storage required to assist renewables is prohibitive”
- A latest Clear Power Canada report, A Renewables Powerhouse, discovered that electrical energy from wind and photo voltaic is already cost-competitive with pure fuel era in Ontario and Alberta (the 2 provinces studied), with much more price reductions on the horizon.
- When Canada’s carbon worth can be included, each wind and photo voltaic are considerably cheaper than pure fuel already at the moment.
- Analyses for the U.S. from Lazard and the Power Data Administration present related outcomes. Each discover wind and photo voltaic to be cost-competitive with pure gas-fired electrical energy within the U.S. even with no carbon worth.
- That mentioned, decrease prices alone are solely a part of the equation. Wind and photo voltaic are variable assets, that means they supply most energy to the grid when the solar shines or the wind blows. As prices proceed to fall, there are a variety of methods to complement the variability of wind and photo voltaic, together with vitality storage and elevated transmission capability.
- Our latest report discovered that, even when the prices of battery storage are included, each wind and photo voltaic are cost-competitive in lots of situations within the two provinces studied.
- Once more, outcomes for the U.S. are comparable, the place estimates present that variable renewables plus storage may be cost-competitive with pure gas-fired electrical energy.
- As vitality storage prices proceed to fall, variable renewables are anticipated to grow to be much more cost-competitive with electrical energy from pure fuel. For instance, evaluation from BloombergNEF exhibits a near-80% decline in lithium-ion battery costs over the past 10 years throughout purposes starting from autos to stationary storage. Trying forward, the U.S. Nationwide Renewable Power Laboratory initiatives utility-scale lithium-ion battery storage prices to probably halve over this decade, with continued price declines via 2050.
- Other than offering low-cost electrical energy, renewables also can assist the communities by which they’re situated. New evaluation discovered that some southern Alberta municipalities obtain a considerable quantity of tax revenues from wind and photo voltaic initiatives, some as excessive as 50%.
- Our latest report discovered that, even when the prices of battery storage are included, each wind and photo voltaic are cost-competitive in lots of situations within the two provinces studied.
Fantasy 3: “Electrical energy from renewables just isn’t clear when you think about the assets required to supply photo voltaic panels and wind generators”
- Research by a few of the world’s most respected vitality establishments have proven that the greenhouse fuel emissions of electrical energy era from variable renewables like wind and photo voltaic are significantly decrease than energy from pure fuel and coal:
- The U.S. Nationwide Renewable Power Laboratory performed a complete evaluation of round 3,000 life-cycle evaluation research on utility-scale electrical energy era from numerous vitality sources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change cited this work in a particular report on renewables, and NREL not too long ago up to date its evaluation. A full life-cycle evaluation covers all levels of electrical energy era, from useful resource extraction and energy plant building to operation and finally decommissioning and recycling or disposal.
- The NREL evaluation confirmed that complete life-cycle greenhouse fuel emissions from photo voltaic, wind, and nuclear are significantly decrease and fewer variable than these from pure fuel and coal. Particularly, the median complete life-cycle emissions from pure fuel energy is nearly 40 occasions that of wind and greater than 10 occasions that of photo voltaic. Earlier evaluation research discovered related outcomes.
Fantasy 4: “Renewables should not clear whenever you account for the gear waste they generate at their finish of life”
- Analysis that particularly checked out waste from photo voltaic panels exhibits that 35 years of worldwide projected cumulative photo voltaic panel waste is dwarfed by the waste generated by fossil gas vitality and different widespread waste streams.
- For instance, if there was no transition to renewable vitality sources, coal ash and oily sludge waste generated from fossil gas vitality could be 300 to 800 occasions and a pair of to five occasions bigger, respectively, than photo voltaic panel waste by 2050. In different phrases, waste from photo voltaic electrical energy is considerably decrease than that from fossil fuels.
- Though some 85% to 90% of the mass of a wind turbine and photo voltaic panel may be reused or recycled, most decommissioned photo voltaic modules and blade waste in Canada are at the moment directed to landfills or are being saved pending future recycling choices, in response to a 2021 report.
- Nevertheless, quite a few coverage instruments can be found to attenuate waste era and encourage circularity of supplies from renewables gear, together with focused end-of-life laws, prolonged producer accountability, eco-design laws, labelling and certification, and binding and measurable restoration and recycling targets. Certainly, some provinces, like B.C. and Alberta, have already begun advancing their photo voltaic panel recycling efforts in recent times.
- Analysts anticipate rising vitality prices, improved recycling know-how, and authorities regulation to extend recycling charges. The truth is, the recycling marketplace for photo voltaic panels alone is projected to be value US$2.7 billion globally by 2030, up from solely US$170 million final 12 months.
Fantasy 5: “Renewables know-how just isn’t prepared”
- The Worldwide Power Company attests that photo voltaic and wind are “effectively established and available” at the moment. The truth is, renewables are set to contribute 80% of latest energy capability worldwide between now and 2030 underneath present insurance policies, with photo voltaic alone accounting for greater than half.
- Photo voltaic deployment has seen distinctive development in recent times, with international put in capability poised to surpass that of coal by 2027. Earlier this 12 months, the Worldwide Power Company projected international spending on solar energy in 2023 to exceed US$380 billion, for the primary time surpassing worldwide funding in oil manufacturing (US$370 billion). On the present fee, international development in photo voltaic era is on observe with what’s wanted from this know-how to attain net-zero emissions by 2050, in response to the Worldwide Power Company.
- Onshore wind is a “confirmed, mature know-how with an intensive international provide chain,” in response to the Worldwide Power Company. In the meantime, offshore wind is predicted to develop quickly within the coming years as deploying generators at sea takes benefit of stronger winds.
- The truth is, the speedy deployment of photo voltaic and wind previously few years has exceeded expectations, pushed by vitality safety issues and new international insurance policies, resulting in important upward revisions of the Worldwide Power Company’s renewable energy forecasts. The company’s newest world vitality outlook equally highlights how projections for photo voltaic and wind era to 2030 have elevated considerably in successive editions of the outlook since 2019.
Fantasy 6: “Renewables may go elsewhere however should not suited to Canada”
- A 2021 research analyzed the power of photo voltaic and wind to fulfill electrical energy demand in over 40 nations and ranked Canada second.
- Earlier evaluation equally discovered important potential for variable renewables like wind and photo voltaic throughout Canada. Highlights embody on-shore wind potential in Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan, off-shore wind potential in B.C. and Ontario, and photo voltaic potential in Ontario and the Prairies.
- Atlantic Canada is residence to a few of the greatest wind energy assets on the planet, with a latest research mentioning that “offshore wind might be for Atlantic Canada what oil was to Texas or hydro energy to Quebec.”
- Additionally in response to the federal authorities, elements of southern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba have been proven to have excessive solar energy potential.
- The truth is, Canada’s hydro-dominated electrical energy community is well-suited to enrich the combination of serious shares of wind and photo voltaic. Evaluation from 2022 discovered that Canada may see variable renewables attain a penetration fee of 54% throughout the nation on common, with even greater charges potential when including demand-side measures.
- As well as, Canada has “large potential for pumped-storage hydropower,” with greater than 8,000 GW recognized at virtually 1,200 websites, in accordance to WaterPower Canada.
