Vietnam has a powerful slew of offshore wind energy initiatives on the drafting board. However on account of numerous technical and authorized constraints, the nation is unlikely to hit the 6 gigawatt goal by 2030.
Offshore wind energy is anticipated to play an necessary function in Vietnam’s bid for net-zero emissions by 2050. Vietnam’s Energy Growth Plan 8 (PDP8) envisages a home offshore wind capability of roughly 6 gigawatt (GW), 4 per cent of the nation’s whole electrical energy technology capability, by 2030. This capability is anticipated to extend to 70-91.5 GW by 2050, accounting for 14 to 16 per cent of the whole electrical energy technology capability. Nevertheless, whether or not Vietnam can obtain these objectives is dependent upon the nation’s skill to navigate current technical and authorized constraints.
Vietnam’s typography and local weather are naturally disposed to present wind generators a literal elevate. Vietnam presently has no put in offshore wind energy capability, nevertheless it has an estimated potential of 475 GW — the biggest in Southeast Asia. Nevertheless, Vietnam presently doesn’t have any “true” offshore wind farms. All its put in sea-based wind initiatives are working close to its shores. When in comparison with offshore wind initiatives, near-shore wind energy initiatives pose extra environmental dangers whereas providing much less constant and environment friendly vitality manufacturing.
Vietnam has zealously embraced offshore wind energy. As of 2022, there have been 22 registered offshore wind initiatives within the northern area and 74 within the southern area. All these proposed initiatives have a mixed capability of 156 GW, far exceeding the goal of 6 GW offshore wind capability by 2030 by 26 instances. Some noteworthy initiatives embrace the three.5 GW La Gan challenge, the three.4 GW Thang Lengthy challenge, the three GW Ninh Thuan 1 challenge, and the two GW Ninh Thuan 2 challenge.
Because of the excessive prices of offshore wind know-how and its novelty in Vietnam, the nation has mobilised monetary and technical assist from overseas vitality firms to kickstart the business. At the moment, two-thirds of the proposed offshore wind initiatives are collectively owned by worldwide and Vietnamese companies.
Vietnam’s typography and local weather is of course disposed to giving wind generators a literal elevate. The nation has an estimated offshore wind energy potential of 475 GW — the biggest in Southeast Asia.
Regardless of these exceptional figures and optimistic developments, nonetheless, Vietnam won’t be capable of attain the 6 GW goal for offshore wind energy by 2030.
First, Vietnam’s nationwide grid is ill-equipped to accommodate the inflow of offshore wind energy. Extreme improvement of offshore wind energy within the south may lead to grid congestion. However transmitting the excess to the power-hungry northern area is just not possible as a result of North-South transmission line’s technical limitations. Thus, to keep away from overloading the grid, Vietnam might have to curtail outputs, probably exposing many offshore wind initiatives to monetary losses. That is just like what occurred to photo voltaic and onshore wind initiatives through the 2019-2021 renewables frenzy, when the authorities requested such vitality producers to curtail provide on account of infrastructure limitations.
Upgrading the facility system to handle this situation requires substantial time and monetary sources. The World Financial institution estimates that grid upgrades to accommodate 5 to 10 GW of recent offshore wind capability will take at the least 5 to 10 years of design, planning, and development work. PDP8 estimates that Vietnam will want US$34.8 to US$38.6 billion for grid infrastructure improvement. Nevertheless, state utility Vietnam Electrical energy (EVN), which is primarily answerable for grid enchancment, has been grappling with mounting monetary difficulties on account of rising enter prices. Whereas Vietnam intends to complement EVN’s grid investments with non-public financing, particular pointers have but to be issued.
Authorized uncertainties pose one other main impediment to Vietnam’s offshore wind ambitions. In a doc on the implementation of PDP8 introduced to the prime minister, the Ministry of Trade and Commerce (MOIT) highlighted the absence of a authorized framework for EVN and different home firms to undertake offshore wind energy initiatives. Particularly, there aren’t any standards for designating offshore wind energy initiatives, and there may be inadequate info on the authorities answerable for granting in-principle approvals for such initiatives.
Moreover, Vietnam has not accredited the lengthy overdue nationwide Marine Spatial Planing (MSP), which might function the authorized foundation for offshore wind energy administration and exploitation at the side of different marine actions. The drafting of the MSP has been delayed on account of numerous components, together with outdated and incomplete knowledge, the dearth of experience, the necessity for coordination with current plans, and the intricacies of the marine atmosphere.
The dearth of particular insurance policies has resulted in case-by-case licensing selections, which is a burdensome and time-consuming course of. Whereas greater than 40 offshore wind initiatives have utilized for marine geological surveys, MONRE has solely granted licenses to 2.
To bolster investor confidence and guarantee their dedication, Vietnam ought to expedite the method of building a complete authorized framework for offshore wind energy. Moreover, a beneficiant feed-in-tariff scheme is critical to assist builders offset the excessive prices of offshore wind farm development, particularly when EVN has been unwilling to buy renewable vitality at excessive costs.
The problem of the grid’s weak capability, nonetheless, is extra intricate and will effectively persist past 2030. To scale back the chance of curtailment, builders ought to think about using offshore wind energy output to assist Vietnam’s different inexperienced vitality objectives, corresponding to electrical energy export or inexperienced hydrogen manufacturing. Following Singapore’s current determination to import offshore wind energy from Vietnam, some provinces with excessive offshore wind potential have expressed curiosity in exporting electrical energy to neighbouring nations. In line with Vietnam’s Nationwide Power Grasp Plan, hydrogen output produced by renewable vitality is anticipated to achieve 100,000-200,000 tonnes in 2030 and 10-20 million tonnes in 2050.
Regardless of the nation’s wind energy potential and slew of offshore wind initiatives, it’s unlikely that Vietnam will hit the 6GW goal by 2030. At any fee, the event of an offshore wind challenge may take seven to 10 years. Some severe rethinking of vitality coverage is perhaps so as.
