Kirby Schlaht,
From Andy Could (2024): “Roger Pielke Jr. posted this plot (under) of the 3-year frequency of world main hurricanes (he makes use of a easy rely of them) created by Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue). Dr. Maue additionally posted this plot on his twitter. Seems like an inverse sunspot plot and overlaid the SILSO month-to-month sunspot rely. Within the determine, the blue is Maue’s plot, and the orange is a plot of month-to-month SILSO sunspots. The correlation, or strictly talking, the anti-correlation is clear and really fascinating. I don’t suppose Ryan Maue’s plot has been formally revealed but.”
Right here is my hypothesis:
It seems that some excessive climate right here on Earth is perhaps influenced by adjustments in photo voltaic exercise. If the Svensmark cloud speculation is right, elevated photo voltaic exercise deflects extra Cosmic Rays (CR) away from the interior photo voltaic system producing much less ionization within the troposphere, producing fewer clouds with extra photo voltaic radiation reaching the oceans. Warming oceans results in a better temperature differential between the poles and the equator which promotes extra hurricane exercise. The oceans have a big thermal lag – it takes time to warmth and funky this big mass of water so we see a time lag of about 3 years after photo voltaic most till the hurricane frequency reaches its most. As we method photo voltaic minimal extra CR ionization happens producing extra clouds and a cooling ocean. The pole/equator temperature differential then, begins to say no with hurricane frequency additionally lowering.
How in regards to the climate on the opposite planets in our photo voltaic system? Would possibly it’s influenced by galactic cosmic rays similar to right here on Earth? The clouds of Neptune captured by the Hubble House Telescope had been obtained over practically 30 years over which is plotted the photo voltaic UV radiation throughout the photo voltaic cycle. We see most cloudiness at photo voltaic most. Simply the alternative of the Svensmark speculation, which says most cloudiness ought to happen at photo voltaic minimal the place CR depth is most. Appears a paradox right here.
This sequence of Hubble House Telescope pictures chronicles the waxing and waning of cloud cowl on Neptune. This nearly-30-year-long set of observations exhibits that the variety of clouds grows more and more following a peak within the photo voltaic cycle – the place the Solar’s stage of exercise rhythmically rises and falls over an 11-year interval. The Solar’s stage of ultraviolet radiation is plotted within the vertical axis. The 11-year cycle is plotted alongside the underside from 1994 to 2022. The Hubble observations alongside the highest, clearly present a correlation between cloud abundance and photo voltaic peak of exercise. One concept says that the elevated ultraviolet radiation from the Solar, throughout its peak of exercise, causes chemical adjustments deep in Neptune’s environment. After a pair years this finally percolates into the higher environment to kind clouds.
NASA, ESA, LASP, Erandi Chavez (UC Berkeley), Imke de Pater (UC Berkeley)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0019103523002440?viapercent3Dihub
Neptune’s environment is made up largely of hydrogen and helium with a little bit of methane. The clouds are primarily composed of ammonia and methane. Temperatures are chilly, round -170 C. Inexperienced and blue areas are the place the purple gentle from the solar is absorbed by methane. The planet has a whole lot of instances extra methane, ethane and acetylene on the equator than on the poles. Ammonia ice, water ice, ammonia hydrosulfide, and methane ice are additionally current.
Simply above Neptune’s rocky floor lies the troposphere. As altitude will increase, temperature within the troposphere decreases. However within the subsequent layer, the stratosphere, temperatures enhance with altitude. That is associated to the movement inside the planet’s core, which heats Neptune greater than the rays from the distant solar. The subsequent layer is the thermosphere, the place pressures are decrease. The very outer fringe of the environment is named the exosphere.
The clouds of Neptune range with the altitude. Chilly temperatures enable methane clouds to condense within the highest layers of the troposphere. Farther down the place pressures are greater, clouds of hydrogen sulfide, ammonium sulfide, ammonia, and water might exist. Clouds of water-ice could also be discovered at pressures of fifty bars, with clouds of hydrogen sulfide and ammonia beneath them.
Neptune additionally incorporates a few haze layers at very excessive altitudes of the troposphere and the stratosphere. These smog-like clouds are made up of hydrocarbons. Very like smog over main cities on Earth, the face of Jupiter has an umber tone which waxes and wanes. The decrease stratosphere of Neptune is foggy due to the condensation of hydrocarbons resembling acetylene and ethane. The thermosphere of Neptune could be very excessive and scorching. The temperature is round 750 Okay. Scientists haven’t discovered how this warmth will get generated as Neptune could be very removed from the Solar and laborious to look at intimately.
If Svensmark’s cloud speculation works on Earth it ought to work on Neptune. Right here we see a reverse part, the place minimal cloudiness happens at photo voltaic minimal. This concurrence brings most cosmic radiation which ought to promote extra clouds not much less. One thing else is perhaps happening right here.
” Excessive-energy galactic cosmic rays (CR)can penetrate to deep ranges inside Neptune’s environment to kind a considerable ionospheric layer within the decrease stratosphere and higher troposphere of the planet. As a result of cosmic ray modulation within the interplanetary medium creates an inverse relationship between cosmic-ray depth and photo voltaic exercise, the ionization price within the decrease environment will range with the 11-year photo voltaic cycle in such a approach that most ionization will happen at sunspot minimal and minimal ionization at sunspot most. This variable ionization might, by the method of ion-induced nucleation, regulate the formation and optical properties of an higher tropospheric haze within the environment of Neptune and will thus present a mechanism for modulating the planet’s visible brightness over a photo voltaic cycle.”
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/GL016i012p01489
Each clouds and haze could also be shaped by a UV photochemical response, cosmic ray-initiated reactions or each. Because the solar will get extra energetic and builds as much as its most, it begins to emit extra highly effective and intense ultraviolet (UV) gentle. It has been discovered that round two years after this UV emission begins, Neptune’s clouds start to look, indicating that this UV is maybe accountable for cloud formation. The cloud-forming aerosols created by cosmic ray interactions are shaped additional down within the troposphere and could also be slowly transported to greater altitudes inside the environment.
Query: Throughout photo voltaic most, is photo voltaic UV gentle the first catalyst for cloud condensation and accountable for the progress of the noticed cloud modulation? Svensmark says that the cosmic radiation depth at photo voltaic most is on the minimal thus producing much less tropospheric aerosols and haze. At photo voltaic most we observe photo voltaic UV is on the most however assume centrality of CR within the creation of tropospheric haze which might then be considerably lowered. This could result in growing higher troposphere transparency revealing the clouds that had been there the entire time. It’s not the clouds which can be altering it’s the modulation of the haze opacity by cosmic rays.
UV and CR publicity of the higher troposphere and stratosphere of Neptune ionizes methane which undergoes chemical reactions creating aerosols of complicated hydrocarbons. These aerosols can kind a posh community of obscuring haze. These aerosols may act as cloud condensation nuclei which facilitate cloud formation. Throughout excessive CR intervals throughout the photo voltaic cycle (photo voltaic minimal) aerosol formation will increase because the UV contribution decreases. Throughout low CR intervals (photo voltaic most) aerosol formation decreases whereas the UV contribution will increase. White methane clouds predominate throughout photo voltaic most and disappear throughout photo voltaic minimal. If the haze is lowered throughout photo voltaic most the clouds could be revealed. The decreased CR throughout photo voltaic most generates considerably much less aerosols within the troposphere lowering the haze formation there. Cosmic Rays appear to be the first driver of cloud and haze forming aerosols within the troposphere of Neptune.
Cosmic radiation induced ionization is the principle mechanism for ionizing the decrease environment of Neptune. Their greater penetration energy, as compared with photo voltaic UV photons, permits cosmic rays to penetrate deep into the environment, ionizing the impartial molecules and producing an ionosphere comparable in magnitude to the ionosphere produced by photo voltaic radiation within the higher environment. UV shall be absorbed by the haze layers because it passes by way of the environment, whereas extremely energetic secondary cosmic rays, sometimes muons of a number of GeV, can readily penetrate the deep Neptunian troposphere.
Notes:
(above) World-average temperature–strain profile of the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune, with main areas of the environment labelled (modified from Moses et al. Thermochemical equilibrium prediction of the upper-tropospheric cloud construction on Uranus (modified from Hueso & Sánchez-Lavega. The expected mass mixing ratios of condensable gases are proven as coloured strong traces, and the utmost cloud density as strong black traces with color-shaded areas.
