Actuality Examine: The IEA Busts 10 Myths In regards to the Power Transition

Renewables are rising exponentially, RMI has proven. The shift is transformative, but additionally broadly undercounted. The Worldwide Power Company’s newest findings — on renewables’ rise and oil demand peaking — add urgency to this transition.

There may be as a lot naysaying concerning the clear power transition as there are methods to speed up it. The reasons unfold by detractors, pessimists, and firms attempting to guard their polluting companies abound: “Wind and photo voltaic take up an excessive amount of land. We don’t have sufficient important minerals. The transition to scrub power might be too costly.” The checklist goes on and on.

At RMI, we’ve lengthy been optimists, centered round our co-founder Amory Lovins’ philosophy of Utilized Hope. Utilized Hope doesn’t ignore the challenges of reaching internet zero by 2050 to keep away from the worst penalties of local weather change, nevertheless it does acknowledge the fast change in know-how and coverage in recent times. Our personal analysis has proven that the worldwide transition to clear electrical energy and electrical automobiles is occurring at an exponential fee.

The excellent news is {that a} current report from the Worldwide Power Company reinforces this level, placing to relaxation lots of the myths propagating concerning the clear power transition. Most of those may be overcome. Wanting forward, we must always assume continued exponential progress of unpolluted applied sciences, not the stagnation of enterprise of standard, when crafting outlooks on the way forward for power.

The Actuality

The IEA’s newest Internet Zero Roadmap finds that the continuity of present progress developments would see electrical automobiles account for two-thirds of automobile gross sales by 2030 and for photo voltaic and wind to be 40% of electrical energy provide, similar to the analysis that RMI simply printed.

Most notably, the IEA busts 10 outstanding myths which are deceptive society concerning the power transition. We spotlight them right here.

1. The power transition is cheaper than “enterprise as standard.” Typical considering argues that the capital prices of the power transition are too excessive. However you additionally want to take a look at the prices of the gas too — fossil fuels are costly and renewables are free. The IEA checked out each capital prices and operational prices and famous that whenever you mix them, the power transition will value $12 trillion lower than the IEA’s enterprise as standard situation. So while capital prices are greater, the continued financial savings from excessive fossil gas costs greater than outweigh this. Briefly, saving the planet is cheaper than destroying it. And the web zero situation will imply decrease power costs for customers.
2. We’re constructing sufficient grids. Typical considering appears to be like on the opposition to the constructing of recent grids, however does depend the successes, these areas the place the grid does get constructed. The IEA takes a dispassionate take a look at the totals. They calculate that we have to construct 1.25 million miles of grids yearly versus the typical for the final 5 years of 1.2 million miles a 12 months that we did truly construct. Despite all of the opposition to alter, we’re in actual fact constructing 95% of the quantity that’s required. That remaining 5% just isn’t simple, however it’s actually achievable.
3. Carbon elimination just isn’t an excuse for inaction. The IEA be aware that it’s less expensive to not put the emissions within the air within the first place than to attempt to take them out later. Delayed motion permitting extra emissions would value $1,300 billion each year to take away the surplus carbon from the air within the second half of the century; that’s 50 p.c greater than we make investments at the moment on oil and fuel capital expenditure.
4. Now we have the know-how. In 2021, the IEA calculated that we solely had 50% of the know-how that was required in 2050 to get to internet zero. In 2023 that elevated to 65% as the results of innovation in a spread of areas, from batteries to inexperienced metal. As is so usually the case, necessity is proving the mom of invention, and it’s cheap to anticipate that we’ll proceed to extend the vary of know-how options quickly over the subsequent few years.
5. Now we have sufficient land. Even in case you take essentially the most pessimistic method to calculate land necessities for photo voltaic and wind, we might require a most of two.5% of accessible land. In actual fact, as famous by many others, this quantity vastly overstates the land use by counting the house between wind generators, regardless that that house can be utilized for crops. Nonetheless, even then it’s clear that land availability just isn’t an insoluble obstacle to deploying renewables.
6. Stranded belongings are coming. Even when we cease constructing fossil gas infrastructure at the moment, many fossil gas energy vegetation and industrial belongings is not going to be wanted, and a few present oil and fuel wells could also be stranded. Already, $3.6 trillion is dedicated to constructing out fossil gas infrastructure above the necessities of internet zero.
7. The availability chain for renewables is being constructed out. Factories are already being constructed to supply yearly over 1,000 gigawatts (GW) of photo voltaic and 10,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) of batteries by 2030, the important thing constructing blocks of the renewable financial system. That is pushed by the hunt for industrial benefit within the industries of the long run as a result of enterprise is aware of that it’s important to be in it to win it.
8. Extra jobs. Of the 65 million individuals working within the power sector, half already work in clear power. The enlargement of the renewable techniques will create way more jobs than are misplaced within the fossil gas techniques. The IEA calculate that by 2030 there might be 30 million new jobs within the clear power financial system versus 13 million jobs misplaced in fossil fuels. Furthermore, the roles will go to those that seize the alternatives of the renewable period.
9. Much less sources for a renewable financial system. They calculate that the full quantity of sources wanted for a renewable financial system is 2 thirds lower than these required to run the present fossil gas financial system. The explanation why is that electrons and the infrastructure wanted to maneuver them round is way lighter than the 15 billion tonnes of fossil fuels we use ever 12 months.
10. Renewables allow justice. Renewable applied sciences reminiscent of minigrids and cookstoves are the muse of options to make sure that by 2030 we get electrical energy to the 775 million individuals who lack it and clear cooking to the two,400 million who would not have it. They assist to scale back untimely deaths from air air pollution by 3.6 million individuals yearly, primarily within the rising and growing economies.

The IEA’s 2023 replace to the Internet Zero Roadmap embraces the prospect of a internet zero future with enthusiasm, recognizing that it’s an more and more credible situation in a warming world witnessing spectacular exponential progress and price declines in renewable applied sciences. RMI’s analysis factors to the identical lightning pace of the power transition, particularly within the progress of solar energy, batteries, and electrical automobiles.

Now, are you considering exponentially?

© 2023 Rocky Mountain Institute. By Kingsmill Bond, Sam Butler-Sloss, Revealed with permission. Initially posted on RMI.