Agenda Of Canadian CUTA Transit Convention Reveals They Have Hydrogen On Mind Too

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Globally, there are nearly 700,000 battery electrical buses in operation and maybe 6,000 hydrogen buses. In Europe in 2023, about 6,400 new battery electrical buses had been registered vs. about 140 hydrogen buses. As I famous just lately, there have are extra hydrogen bus trials which were deserted than operational hydrogen bus fleets. And lately, it’s change into clear that hydrogen leaks badly and has a a lot worse international warming impression than beforehand assumed.

So, you’ll suppose {that a} a number of day transit convention in Canada’s agenda can be filled with battery electrical data, charging data, microgrid insights, battery value curves, and the like, and that there could be one lone hydrogen presentation. Would that this had been true.

I’m conscious of the CUTA Toronto Annual Convention and Transit Present as a result of a bunch of individuals had been asking if I used to be going to be attending. CUTA, by the best way, is the Canadian City Transit Affiliation, with a membership of transit techniques, public our bodies, firms that provide the sector, and specialists in city mobility. The questions had been raised as a result of Canada has been pushed sideways on decarbonizing transit lately by one other group, CUTRIC, or the Canadian City Transit Analysis and Innovation Consortium, and I’ve been analysing what has been going mistaken and why.

The large ticket failure is their situation report for Brampton which assessed a hydrogen-only, battery-only, and blended fleet and beneficial the blended fleet. Between international technique advisor and creator Michael Raynor and I, we recognized $1.5 billion in dangerous modeling and flawed value assumptions in favor of hydrogen and in opposition to battery electrical, dwarfing the $10 million distinction discovered to justify the blended fleet.

The report fails each sniff check of validation in opposition to exterior international expertise, situation modeling, strategic evaluation, and fundamental high quality management.

The convention began yesterday, and so I believed it might be value taking a look at their agenda to see how the periods stacked up. What number of had been dedicated to hydrogen? What number of dedicated to battery electrical? What number of dedicated to useless ends like renewable pure gasoline, one other of Enbridge’s favourite greenwashing molecules along with hydrogen, as I wrote about just lately as properly, discovering that it was 0.02% of their annual quantity after 13 years of creating it and bragging about it.

Let’s begin with fundamental numbers from counts from the agenda:

• Hydrogen — 26 mentions
• Gas cells — 7 mentions
• Battery or batteries — 22 mentions
• Electrical — 23 however typically in paragraphs that additionally included hydrogen

This appears skewed radically towards the rounding error possibility. Maybe it’s simply within the speaker bios? No.

What in regards to the depend on periods centered on hydrogen vs. battery electrical buses?

• Hydrogen — 2 periods, each centered on hydrogen infrastructure
• Battery electrical — 3 periods, one on the hearth dangers of battery electrical buses, one on fleet will increase with battery electrical buses, and one on experiences and transformation plans
• One panel dialogue that concerned each, hosted by Cummins, the interior combustion engine producer
• One session on getting ready the transit workforce for rising propulsion applied sciences, which solely mentions electrical buses
• There’s a session on power administration and power as a service which is about a number of power streams, not simply electrical energy
• There’s a session on tramways — i.e., grid-connected battery electrical buses
• Nothing on renewable pure gasoline, fortunately

That’s … odd. Nothing on electrical bus charging? Nothing on battery buffering for charging? Nothing for photo voltaic on bus yards to allow charging? Nothing about en route charging? Nothing about induction charging? Nothing about methods for route optimization? Nothing about projected development in capability and decline in prices for batteries and therefore battery electrical autos? Nothing about incremental bus fleet acquisitions with the longest routes left till battery electrical vary will increase as it should inevitably do? No electrical utility professionals offering steerage on grid interconnections? No periods on battery electrical bus upkeep and operations? Nothing on right-sizing batteries to routes, the important thing technique India has used to maximise fleet dimension and decrease prices? Nothing on battery electrical bus procurement methods? Nothing on lobbying provincial and federal governments to get BYD and Yutong factories constructed? Nothing on efficient tendering for battery electrical bus fleets? No strategic consulting corporations speaking in regards to the actuality of the large transformation and the way to make sure acceptable steerage and assist is in place?

Nothing on the true greenhouse gasoline emissions of hydrogen buses with grey and inexperienced hydrogen, each greater emitters than battery electrical? Nothing about grey hydrogen being nearly as excessive emissions properly to wheel as diesel? Nothing on California’s hydrogen bus fleet expertise, which incorporates 50% greater upkeep prices than diesel and double battery electrical? Nothing on EU’s JIVE program standing report in regards to the failure of producers to offer warranties longer than 20 months for hydrogen buses, whereas five-year full elements and repair and eight-year drivetrain warranties for battery electrical buses are widespread? Nothing on the failure of hydrogen refueling globally, between compressor failures and innumerable hydrogen provide chain failures? Nothing on hydrogen bus fleets having decrease vary within the winter time in international experiences? Nothing about hydrogen buses and refueling infrastructure not dropping in value in any respect? Nothing in regards to the very excessive value of delivered hydrogen, whether or not grey or inexperienced, a lot greater than the price of power per kilometer than battery electrical?

The battery session that discovered a 34% enhance in fleet dimension with battery electrical autos clearly had some challenges in its methodology, or no less than its framing. I discovered the paper the creator is presenting about and it has zero point out of battery power density enhancements which can be being delivered right this moment, 650 km ranges from BYD buses being delivered proper now, LFP batteries with 300 kWh/kg power densities, power density curves, and even, amazingly, the precise power density of batteries within the buses studied. It simply seemed on the restricted variety of battery electrical buses at present in operation in Canada, ran some stats, and pretended that in a quickly altering technological area, the previous was a very good predictor of the longer term.

It additionally ignores real-world information from hydrogen fleets that exhibits their vary degrades considerably within the winter time too, together with from neighboring Quebec, the place the governmental fleet of principally Toyota Mirais noticed substantial vary degradation, and the expertise from Whistler, BC, additionally a Canadian instance, the place hydrogen buses froze up within the winter time as a result of the water vapor from the gasoline cell wasn’t thermally managed.

The creator barely research transit, by the best way, principally being centered on the odd mixture of autonomous autos and street capability engineering research, with solely two transit research of their publication historical past.

So, two of the three battery electrical bus periods are about how dangerous they’re — international purchases make it very clear that’s not the case — whereas the 2 hydrogen periods (the ratio ought to be 20 to 1, not 3 to 2) are neutrally framed. Additionally, no point out of the massively decrease chance of pure battery electrical bus fires than diesel bus or hybrid bus fires, or lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries which eradicate the already low danger of battery electrical bus fires.

An early session was Understanding Hydrogen Functions, Provide and Infrastructure by a few folks from New Flyer, the main bus producer in North America. I wrote about New Flyer’s main strategic blunder in getting sucked into the vortex of hydrogen gasoline cell buses just lately as properly. It’s a seductive lure, as every particular person bus has the next sticker value with 50% paid for by the federal government, however every hydrogen bus bought seemingly means the lack of three battery electrical bus gross sales to BYD, in addition to lengthy tail of sad prospects.

New Flyer nearly went bankrupt in 2022, and was bailed out with $200 million in governmental loans and credit. It will possibly’t afford to divide its consideration. It’s going to finish up like just lately bankrupt Quantron, which tried to do each battery electrical and hydrogen vans, couldn’t do both remotely properly in comparison with rivals, and went out of enterprise. At current, it’s the one recreation on the town for Canadian transit businesses wanting hydrogen buses — as a result of they’ve been misled about each battery electrical and hydrogen buses by organizations like CUTRIC — and one of many solely video games on the town for battery electrical buses, and so these businesses are placing their fleets at better danger. As soon as once more, dangerous technique.

Battery electrical buses are the largest transformation that transit businesses in Canada have handled because the shift to diesel buses within the mid-Twentieth century. There are 66 displays and panels within the three and half days. Most transit businesses have already dedicated to majority or completely battery electrical fleets. There are tons of of battery electrical buses on order.

There are solely three displays associated to the precise decarbonization answer that’s staring Canadian transit businesses within the face, and two of them are unfavourable. This isn’t a smart focus.

This isn’t to say that different periods are dangerous. There are periods on transit security, transit income, funding, asset upkeep, accessibility, and variety.

However when one session is a zombie-apocalypse bus evacuation recreation, and periods on easy methods to successfully remodel to battery electrical fleets aren’t 25% or extra of the agenda, CUTA has misplaced the plot. At the very least Ballard and Enbridge aren’t presenting, which is one thing.