A pointy Washington coverage pivot has torpedoed wind and photo voltaic tasks in the US after the re-election of Donald Trump, a local weather denier who has repeatedly attacked the financial and environmental credentials of renewable vitality applied sciences.
Trump’s renewables denial has precipitated ripples past the US. In Asia Pacific, the place fossil fuels command a better share of the vitality combine than anyplace on the planet, there are indicators that political and enterprise leaders really feel entitled to de-prioritise the vitality transition.
Indonesia, for instance, appears set to backtrack from commitments it made at COP29 in November. President Prabowo Subianto had promised so as to add 75 gigawatts (GW) of renewable vitality and shut down all of its coal energy vegetation by 2040. However the nation’s local weather and vitality envoy has described a whole coal exit as “financial suicide”. A suppose tank identified final week that Indonesia’s renewables additions will have to be ramped as much as realise Prabowo’s ambitions.
Asia’s dependancy to fossil fuels owes a lot to a story that portrays coal, oil and pure gasoline as important for financial stability and poverty alleviation, and clear vitality applied sciences as in a roundabout way ineffective, uneconomic or dangerous to society – propagated by those that search to keep up the established order.
Although the expansion of renewables has been brisk in some jurisdictions – nowhere sooner than China, the place the emissions of the world’s greatest polluter have flattened although the nation continues so as to add coal capability – in others like Indonesia, the messaging on the vitality transition has been muddled.
In Vietnam, as soon as the darling of Southeast Asia’s clear vitality progress story and an offshore wind trailblazer, activists have been jailed for campaigning towards coal and agitating for clear energy. Malaysia has strong renewable vitality ambitions, and is creeping in the direction of a 40 per cent renewables by 2035 goal, however the world’s third-largest producer of photo voltaic panels stays closely reliant on coal and gasoline.
Singapore has loved stellar publicity for being the primary Asean nation to introduce a carbon tax and taking the lead on cross-border renewables buying and selling and the carbon markets, however a tax rebate for large polluters has raised questions in regards to the city-state’s sincerity in assembly its local weather ambitions on the required velocity.
As stress builds on Asian nations to set extra bold local weather targets within the run-up to COP30, Eco-Enterprise casts a cautious eye over the statements politicians and enterprise leaders have been making to downplay renewables. Some are grounded in some reality. Others make compelling arguments for a cautious shift away from fossil fuels. However all serve to delay the transition to wash vitality on the planet’s most climate-vulnerable area.
‘Asia is totally different’
Respect the Asian context – it is a strategic stance that Japan has taken because it positions itself as a trusted ally in serving to different Asian nations decarbonise. One instance is the Asia Zero Emission Neighborhood (AZEC), which funnels Japanese finance and know-how into vitality tasks across the area beneath the Inexperienced Transformation (GX) Technique.
AZEC, nonetheless, has more and more been criticised for greenwashing, since many AZEC tasks are fossil fuels-based. Japan argues that there are “varied pathways” to internet zero, which within the Asian context can embody the continued burning of fossil fuels.
“The time period ‘varied pathways towards a typical aim’, which has been promoted at G7 conferences, is a solution to present that Asia is totally different and received’t be advised what to do,” stated Makiko Arima of Oil Change Worldwide, an advocacy group pushing for a simply transition to wash vitality.
“However that is code for an vitality transition that helps the continued use of fossil fuels in Asia and non-renewable technique of ‘decarbonisation’, similar to co-firing varied fuels with coal or ‘transitioning’ to gasoline,” she added. “They use green-sounding names like Asia Zero Emission Neighborhood and Inexperienced Transformation, however it’s greenwashing.”
Companies have performed the “Asia-is-different” card too, and argue that pure gasoline is a viable transition gasoline that can be utilized beneath some decarbonisation situations. “There isn’t any single prescribed pathway to a low-carbon future,” stated the chief govt Tengku Muhammad Taufik of Malaysian oil large Petronas on the Khazanah Megatrends Discussion board in 2021, insisting that pure gasoline introduced a “viable and already accessible” trade response to the vitality transition.
Australia’s greatest oil and gasoline firm Woodwide makes related claims, though critics have argued that the situation it makes use of is outdated and permits a bigger position for oil and gasoline in Paris-aligned pathways than is feasible in the present day.
‘Renewables destabilise the grid’
Ex-AboitizPower CEO Emmanuel Rubio stated that the intermittent nature of renewables justifies the necessity for “a various vitality combine that gives dependable and dispatchable energy”. Picture: Energy Philippines
When he declared a nationwide vitality emergency on his first day in workplace, Trump stated in an announcement that the Biden administration’s insurance policies – which noticed renewables take a file share of the electrical energy combine in 2022 – have led to “an insufficient and intermittent vitality provide” and “an more and more unreliable grid”. Trump, who has decried wind farms as ugly, costly and a hazard to wildlife earlier than suspending offshore wind leases on 20 January, has been taking goal on the fitful nature of wind and photo voltaic.
Unpredictable fluctuations in energy from renewables can destabilise the electrical energy grid, a degree that’s usually raised by policymakers to justify a sluggish transition. Conservative politicians in Australia proceed to decry the intermittency of renewables as a risk to vitality stability, although the nation’s vitality authority stated in August that the grid will stay steady as it shifts from coal domination to operating primarily on renewables, so long as new additions are delivered “on time and in full”.
Rachmat Kaimuddin, chair of the nationwide vitality transition taskforce of Indonesia, a rustic which makes use of lower than one per cent of its photo voltaic potential, stated at an occasion in Jakarta final yr {that a} dependable transmission system that may address the intermittency of renewables is the “backside line” for Indonesia’s vitality transition. Renewables comprise simply 13 per cent of the nation’s coal-heavy vitality combine.
Christophe Inglin, who has labored within the photo voltaic enterprise because the Nineties and runs Singapore-based agency Energetix, advised Eco-Enterprise that renewables capability in Indonesia is at present nowhere close to the degrees at which intermittency can destabilise the grid. “Intermittency is certainly a problem when renewables penetration is excessive sufficient, similar to in Germany the place renewables may end up in unfavourable energy pricing. So storage applied sciences should come to the rescue,” he stated.
Corporates like Philippine conglomerate Aboitiz have additionally flagged the “constraints” of renewables. The previous head of the corporate’s energy subsidiary Emmanuel Rubio bemoaned the “variability” of wind and photo voltaic in a speech final Could and urged trade to not depend on it. AboitizPower plans to develop its whole manufacturing capability to 13 GW within the subsequent six years, with half to come back from fossil fuels, the opposite half from renewables. “This is the reason they’re selling the concept renewable vitality must be complemented with new baseload vitality capability from fossil gasoline and nuclear,” Greenpeace Philippines local weather and vitality campaigner Khevin Yu advised Eco-Enterprise.
Petronas has additionally telegraphed the intermittency of renewables as a “stumbling block” for the vitality transition. Its CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik stated at an occasion final yr that their unreliability fuels the notion that renewables should not worthwhile.
In the meantime, new proof is rising that counters such claims. California was powered by 100-per-cent renewable vitality with no blackouts for a file size of time in 2024, in keeping with a February examine. This was partly because of backup battery energy. At their peak, renewables supplied 162 per cent of the grid’s wants, enabling additional provide to be piped into neighbouring states.
“This examine actually finds that we will preserve the grid steady with increasingly more renewables,” stated Mark Jacobson, a civil and environmental engineer at Stanford College and lead creator of the paper.
‘Power safety trumps vitality transition’
Geopolitical pressure has given fossil fuels corporations an excuse to deprioritise the vitality transition. Petronas chief govt Tengku Muhammad Taufik has stated that whereas corporations had been centered on the shift away from conventional fuels towards clear vitality earlier than the Ukraine conflict, vitality safety is now prime precedence.
“With a lot gasoline being faraway from the system, not being accessible to Europe, so [many] barrels now making its manner via totally different routes — the problem of making certain vitality safety has now taken its place once more,” he stated after the West slapped sanctions on Russian gasoline.
‘Our nation has a small carbon footprint’
Singapore and Malaysia usually argue that as small international locations, they don’t contribute a lot to local weather change – a stance that deflects from the duty to chop emissions.
“As a creating nation, Malaysia has restricted duty for international local weather change and extra restricted capabilities than developed international locations,” the Khazanah Analysis Institute stated in its report What’s to be finished? Confronting local weather disaster in Malaysia. True, Malaysia solely contributes 0.77 per cent of the world’s whole emissions. However its per capita emissions are on par with Japan and China. Singapore’s nationwide emissions are 0.11 per cent of world local weather air pollution. However its emissions per individual are the very best on the planet.
Indonesia and India have additionally argued that they don’t pollute a lot per individual in comparison with developed international locations. Whereas that is true – the common American has six occasions the carbon footprint of the common Indonesian, and eight occasions that of the common Indian – and creating international locations are entitled to extra local weather finance than they’ve been receiving from wealthy nations via local weather agreements similar to COP, a sluggish transition to wash vitality doesn’t profit any nation in a climate-vulnerable area similar to Asia, the place local weather impacts are quickly worsening.
‘Too small for photo voltaic’
Singapore’s small measurement is routinely used to elucidate away the tiny contribution renewable vitality makes to powering the nation – the city-state is simply too space-scarce for photo voltaic, its most promising renewables possibility, which makes up round one per cent of an electrical energy combine dominated by fossil gasoline. Whereas land shortage is a real constraint, as it’s in any densely populated metropolis, photo voltaic capability in Singapore grew by 46 per cent between 2022 and 2023, which means that photo voltaic’s potential has been under-exploited regardless of its small measurement.
Land shortage can be cited as a barrier to photo voltaic adoption in South Korea, a rustic 130 occasions the dimensions of Singapore. Nevertheless, if insurance policies and regulatory enhancements had been carried out, Korea’s photo voltaic potential may exceed the present nationwide electrical energy consumption, recommended Yi Hyun Kim, a campaigner for Seoul-based non-proft Options for our Local weather.
“With technological developments, this potential may additional improve, making photo voltaic vitality a viable resolution for rising electrical energy demand,” she advised Eco-Enterprise.
‘Too cloudy for photo voltaic’
Commentaries on the sluggish uptake of photo voltaic in Singapore have famous that the city-state, like its tropical Southeast Asian neighbours, has excessive cloud cowl, which diminishes its photo voltaic potential. Whereas it’s true that clouds veil the solar, significantly in the course of the wet season, intermittent cloud cowl shouldn’t be a compelling motive to delay deploying photo voltaic at scale, stated specialists.
Photo voltaic irradiation in Singapore is 50 per cent increased than in northern Europe, the place photo voltaic photovoltaic has been quickly deployed lately. Photo voltaic now accounts for 12 per cent of Germany’s electrical energy combine – up from simply 2 per cent in 2010.
‘Renewables are unaffordable’
Malaysian premier Anwar Ibrahim has stated that reducing emissions shouldn’t come on the expense of financial progress. Malaysia may lose as much as 30 per cent of GDP by 2070 to local weather change. Picture: Anwar on Instagram
In 2023, Malaysia’s prime minister Anwar Ibrahim stated in a speech at Power Asia, a convention hosted by oil large Petronas, that reducing emissions shouldn’t come on the expense of financial progress or compromise insurance policies that ease poverty. “Whereas some international locations are making ready to transition to cleaner types of vitality, others are nonetheless combating entry to finish electrification, clear cooking oil and vitality safety,” stated Anwar on the occasion.
“Affordability stays a key concern, significantly for elements of creating Asia the place individuals are not trying too far into the longer term however may merely be struggling to pay the invoice for the subsequent week and to place meals on the desk,” he added.
Anwar additionally stated that the vitality transition shouldn’t hamper insurance policies that help high quality schooling, well being and primary infrastructure. “The necessity to change, sure, the necessity for transition, after all, but additionally the necessity to survive,” he stated.
In the identical speech, Anwar referenced a dialog he’d had with a bunch that included Amin H. Nasser, the chief govt of oil large Aramco, who in a speech at Singapore Worldwide Power Week in October 2024 stated that creating Asia couldn’t afford renewable vitality – and may spend money on enhancing oil and gasoline infrastructure as a substitute.
The “‘Renewables’ will value the Earth” marketing campaign is linked to conservative political foyer group Advance Australia. Picture: BlueSky
The supposedly excessive value of renewable vitality can be utilized in developed international locations within the area. In January, a billboard that reads “‘Renewables’ will value you the Earth” emerged in Sydney and Melbourne. The marketing campaign was backed by Advance Australia, a conservative foyer group linked to fossil fuels pursuits that has referred to as local weather change a “hoax”. Mockingly, a number of the billboards the marketing campaign ran on are powered by photo voltaic vitality.
Whereas the price of each main supply of renewable vitality is now decrease than the common value of fossil fuels, and is cheaper in most coal-dominant international locations, the price of local weather disasters is rising – and nowhere is the price of climate-related injury as excessive as in Asia.
In response to Asian Growth Financial institution, local weather inaction – that’s, an ongoing dependence on fossil fuels – will value Asia 17 per cent of regional GDP by 2070. Local weather-vulnerable international locations such because the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia may doubtlessly lose as much as 30 per cent of their GDP beneath a excessive emissions situation.
‘Asian issues shouldn’t be influenced by the West’
In his speech “Charting pathways for a sustainable Asia” at Power Week, Malaysian premier Anwar Ibrahim recommended that the necessity to transition to wash vitality was a mandate from the West quite than a plea from scientists to scale back greenhouse gasoline emissions and keep away from catastrophic local weather change.
“The [energy] transition have to be decided by all and subjected to the rigours of the trade necessities of every nation. It should not be dictated by any group of nations,” he stated. He cited a suggestion from Amin Nasser of Aramco that Asia should “take a extra proactive and inclusive place to permit for voices of conscience in Asia.”
‘Renewables kill wildlife and destroy rural communities’
In 2022, Australia’s administration led by prime minister Anthony Albanese introduced that it could ship 82 per cent of the nation’s electrical energy from renewable sources. Since then, right-wing political teams with ties to fossil fuels pursuits have attacked renewables tasks on the premise that they hurt farmlands, wildlife and the agricultural lifestyle.
The web site for the “Let’s rethink renewables” marketing campaign, which claims renewables tasks will hurt wildlife and rural communities. Picture: Let’s Rethink Renewables
The “Let’s rethink renewables” marketing campaign calls on residents to oppose wind, photo voltaic and pumped hydropower tasks within the Gympie area in Queensland by writing to politicians, mobilising on social media and becoming a member of protests. The marketing campaign, which requires a reassessment of Australia’s local weather coverage, claims that renewables will destroy pristine wildlife habitats and kill uncommon and threatened native vegetation and animals. Although it’s introduced as a grassroots initiative fronted by involved rural communities, questions have been raised over the group’s ties to fossil fuels lobbyists.
A person stands subsequent to a billboard opposing wind farms in Port Stephens, New South Wales. Picture: Mark Watson
Trump’s baseless declare that wind farms hurt whales impressed campaigns that oppose the Australian authorities’s plan to put in offshore windfarms. A faux article shared on social media in 2023 claimed offshore wind tasks within the Illawarra and Hunter would kill 400 whales a yr. The article was debunked by Quentin Hanich, the editor-in-chief of the tutorial journal Marine Coverage. “There’s been an entire bunch of constant dialogue that means that windfarms kill whales with none precise proof to reveal that that’s the case,” Hanich advised The Guardian.
Materials utilized in scores of social media teams that popped as much as oppose the wind farms final yr – for example, photographs of beached whales with wind generators within the background – had been linked to anti-wind activists backed by fossil fuels industries within the US.
The Nationwide Rally In opposition to Reckless Renewables marketing campaign claimed final yr that the Borumba pumped hydro scheme in Queensland would drive the critically endangered Nangur spiny skink to extinction. The marketing campaign was backed by conservative politicians, together with the chief of the Nationals social gathering, David Littleproud, who stated “renewables are dropping their social licence as a result of they’re destroying the very factor they had been designed to guard.”
Poorly deliberate renewables tasks can hurt nature. The Nice Indian bustard, an ostrich-like chicken, is in peril of extinction because of collisions with clear vitality infrastructure in northwestern India, and activists within the Philippines are up in arms over the development of a wind farm within the biodiverse Masungi nature reserve. Nevertheless, a examine from 2009 discovered that fossil gasoline vegetation are 17 occasions extra lethal for birds and bats than wind farms. Additionally, sensitivity mapping instruments like Avistep assist builders plan clear vitality tasks in ways in which keep away from harming biodiversity. Developed by non-profit BirdLife Worldwide, the device is being trialled in international locations together with India, Vietnam, Nepal and Thailand.
‘Nuclear is cheaper and extra dependable’
In Australia, which has a number of the highest photo voltaic and wind vitality potential on the planet, politicians against a speedy shift away from fossil fuels argue that nuclear is a greater different to renewables. “The federal opposition claims nuclear is cheaper and extra dependable than renewables.
It’s a artful and critically cynical political ploy,” stated Belinda Noble, founding father of Comms Declare, a non-profit that campaigns for a ban on fossil gasoline promoting. Nationals chief David Littleproud has proposed an vitality plan that backs nuclear and fossil gasoline, and limits funding in renewables. This is able to allow coal-fired energy stations to preserve operating for lots longer, which Littleproud argues will get monetary savings.
‘Expertise impartial’
When the Philippines authorities launched its vitality plan for 2023-2050 and an intention to offer “dependable, clear, and resilient vitality” for all Filipinos, it introduced its ambition for renewables to make up greater than half of the vitality combine by 2050. However it left the door open for the addition of extra fossil fuels and nuclear too. It used the phrase “know-how impartial” to border the narrative that it could cater to to all types of vitality as a technique to deal with the vitality disaster and aim for vitality independence for the nation.
‘Power effectivity should come first’
Prioritising enhancing the effectivity of fossil vitality infrastructure over switching to renewables is a compelling delay tactic, since extra environment friendly vitality methods are extra inexpensive and fewer polluting. “Renewable vitality is simply the second step in lowering emissions. Power effectivity measures should come at the beginning,” Yin Shao Loong, deputy director of analysis at Malaysian analysis agency Khazanah Analysis Institute advised The Edge, a enterprise information web site.
Whereas it’s true that vitality effectivity is the quickest and most cost-effective solution to lower emissions – the Worldwide Power Company (IEA) estimates that vitality effectivity may account for almost half of the emissions cuts wanted between now and 2030 to achieve internet zero by 2050 – measures taken to scale back vitality waste ought to be finished in addition to not as a substitute of investing in renewables.
“Pursuing vitality effectivity alongside clear vitality will double the tempo of progress and preserve delivering local weather objectives which might be inexpensive and inside attain,” says stated Jon Creyts, chief govt of US suppose tank Rocky Mountain Institute.
‘There isn’t any market’
An argument usually made in Indonesia, the place renewable vitality assets are grossly underexploited, is that there are inadequate alternatives for clear vitality gamers – so don’t hassle. “Indonesia is blessed with large renewables potential, however there’s no marketplace for it but,” stated Eka Satria, chief govt of vitality and mining agency Medco Energy at an occasion in Jakarta final yr.
Whereas there are obstacles to constructing a renewables enterprise in Indonesia – amongst them, fossil fuels subsidies, a monopolistic vitality market construction, and ever-evolving rules that delay traders – there may be arguably no nation in Southeast Asia the place the renewables alternative is larger – and wanted extra. Indonesia invested extra in renewables than any nation in Asean in 2023, in keeping with administration consultancy Bain.
Whereas efforts to sluggish the shift to renewable vitality will possible proceed this yr, the United Nations govt local weather secretary Simon Stiell asserted final week that the renewables shift is “unstoppable” – and in each nation’s self-interest. “When US$2 trillion flows into clear vitality and infrastructure in only one yr, as they did final yr, you will be certain it’s not due to advantage signalling. That’s twice as a lot as in fossil fuels. Traders know that clear vitality makes much more sense. The cash-making alternative is just too huge to disregard,” he stated.
