ATCO’s Proposed Edmonton Hydrogen Subdivision Would Pay 4-10 Occasions Present Value For Warmth

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Each time I publish an article or publish one thing on LinkedIn stating the financial folly and inevitable cul-de-sac of hydrogen-for-energy, commenters drag out new examples of dangerous hydrogen schemes, whether or not as concepts they suppose are proving my level or examples that disprove my thesis. After publishing on Canada’s $25 billion, progress-light and reality-deficient hydrogen technique just lately, one of many feedback asserted that Edmonton could be getting a brand new subdivision totally heated by hydrogen.

What’s the organizational provenance of this concept? Properly, it’s principally ATCO, the Alberta-based household enterprise that not solely supplies these ubiquitous inexperienced and white building modular places of work, but additionally has a pure gasoline utility in its portfolio of companies (together with now offered and pure gasoline era vegetation). Sure, ATCO is firmly embedded in Alberta’s fossil gas ecosystem, and like the vast majority of gasoline utilities globally, is attempting to fake that hydrogen is its get-out-of-utility-death-spiral-free card.

They’re already constructing a hydrogen residence in Sherwood Park, an Edmonton-area bed room group with Qualico, a business and residential actual property developer with places of work in Edmonton, Calgary, and Winnipeg. Sure, one other Alberta firm, greater than not, and therefore totally enmeshed within the odd perspective on actuality that thrives within the province in these waning days of the fossil gas trade.

ATCO and Qualico are selling the thought of a bunch of principally empty land, about 2,000 hectares in Strathcona County over 20 kilometers from downtown, as the placement of an 85,000-resident growth heated totally by hydrogen and with hydrogen stoves. They declare that that there are many Europeans residing in properties and multi-unit residences with hydrogen-certified home equipment, which is frankly a whole misstatement. Much like ATCO, many European gasoline utilities have been attempting to pressure hydrogen by residential and business buildings’ entrance doorways, however there was a definite lack of progress in that effort and I’m unaware of any residences besides demonstration models like the only ATCO residence underneath building in Europe which can be “hydrogen-ready.”

As Paul Martin and others say, hydrogen-ready is the equal of claiming that your driveway or storage are Lamborghini-ready. That you can park a Lambo there under no circumstances means you possibly can afford to personal a Lambo.

ATCO and Qualico are lined up on the governmental trough for this. Simply learning the thought received them CA$2 million in Alberta Innovates grants. That Alberta Innovates is collaborating with gasoline utilities round dangerous concepts like that is pretty customary for the group, which is a bit mild on actuality in the case of the reality of the transition and tends to imagine regardless of the individuals writing the grant — often fossil gas trade or adjoining — say.

Amusingly, ATCO is making the bald-faced declare about hydrogen warmth that it emits no carbon monoxide and therefore is sweet. They don’t point out that burning pure gasoline, their main providing, is the one supply of carbon monoxide in most properties. They don’t point out that burning hydrogen would create extra nitrous oxides that are dangerous for childhood bronchial asthma and people with respiratory illnesses.

ATCO additionally obtained $900,000 for a Fort Saskatchewan hydrogen operation heart and heart of excellence for mixing hydrogen into current pure gasoline traces, one other zero optimistic impression concept that gasoline utilities globally are selling. For context, at most 10% hydrogen could be blended in most North American pure gasoline pipelines due to the traits of the metal. That 10% is a 3rd as dense as pure gasoline, so the identical quantity of gasoline has much less vitality. The hydrogen additionally leaks much more than the methane, as hydrogen molecules are a lot smaller than methane molecules, and hydrogen has an oblique world warming potential of about 12 occasions that of carbon dioxide. There is no such thing as a local weather profit to mixing hydrogen into current pure gasoline traces.

Is the residential group more likely to be constructed? No. The lands have been in the marketplace with a bunch of proposals for yet one more residential bed room group for Edmonton for 20 years. ATCO and Qualico aren’t shopping for the lands. An actual property agent has had lots of of acres of the land listed since 2019 they usually haven’t moved. That is only a very effectively funded delaying tactic examine.

If the group have been constructed, what could be the outcomes?

Let’s begin with the worth of vitality. ATCO being a gasoline utility, clearly the comparability could be to their residential charges. Most residences in ATCO north area which incorporates Edmonton and Strathcona devour round 120 gigajoules per yr per ATCO’s information. They’ve a $1.91 per day supply cost which provides as much as $700 per yr. They get charged $2.20 per gigajoule of pure gasoline which provides as much as $270 a yr, for a complete of about $1,000 per yr. That’s dust low-cost, which explains the horrendously dangerous insulation in sprawling Albertan homes.

How dangerous and sprawling? Properly, in Sweden, the common family makes use of 72 gigajoules of vitality for all the pieces in a yr, together with heating, cooking, scorching water, lights, stereo, TV, and electrical vehicles. Albertans use over 60% extra vitality only for the heating elements of that. When you can’t get to zero carbon with effectivity in the event you proceed to burn fossil fuels, a historical past of dust low-cost fossil fuels in in a fossil gas economic system spells bother for the constructing inventory when it comes to effectively insulated envelopes.

That $2.20 within the vary of the BC and Ontario charges per gigajoule I quoted in my evaluation of Canada’s hydrogen technique and progress, a little bit bit decrease than BC’s and about 60% of Ontario’s. As I identified in that materials, the price of manufacturing low-carbon hydrogen per gigajoule could be about $24 per gigajoule for blue hydrogen (which ATCO and Alberta would undoubtedly be pumping) and about $47 per gigajoule for inexperienced hydrogen.

Assuming the low finish manufactured price of $24 and assuming that ATCO really needs to make a revenue per gigajoule, name it 15% so $28. There aren’t any hydrogen pipelines servicing the two,000 hectares. 100% new hydrogen pipelines must be laid, they usually price greater than pure gasoline distribution pipelines, each for the pipes and for the compressors, due to hydrogen’s sturdy tendency to leak and low density. That may doubtless imply that buyers must pay 50% extra for the supply expenses as effectively.

Assuming that they’d use the identical gigajoules on common per yr, that will be $3,300 for the gigajoules plus one other $1,000 for the supply expenses, $4,300 in complete.

Which Albertan resident goes to be remotely taken with paying over 4 occasions extra for heating and cooking? Which landlord goes to be remotely taken with consuming these prices as a part of hire?

Bear in mind, that’s with blackish blue hydrogen. Inexperienced hydrogen would are available in, with finest case hydrogen manufacturing prices, at round $6,500 per yr, over six occasions as costly. Extra lifelike prices for inexperienced hydrogen would bump that as much as a cool $10,000.

Is there anything? Sure, sure there may be. Security necessities for properties with hydrogen home equipment based mostly upon European and North American research would require 10 centimeter vent holes to the surface in each room with a hydrogen equipment. The large holes characterize a big lack of warmth vitality to the surface as a result of you possibly can’t simply let the hydrogen out whereas conserving the warmth in. Meaning the precise gigajoules required for heating will really go up. That $4,300 might be nearer to $5,000.

The rest? Security. Within the USA, 4,000 buildings a yr endure pure gasoline fires and explosions. Security assessments out of the UK and the continent of hydrogen for home and business warmth necessities present that hydrogen would characterize a 400% improve in threat of fires and explosions because of the traits of the gasoline. Together with the large holes within the partitions, hydrogen detectors that price a number of hundred {dollars} per residence could be required. Additional, insurance coverage prices could be commensurate with the dangers. The typical Edmonton residence paid $1,500 in residence insurance coverage in 2021. Make that $2,000 to $2,500. Maybe extra.

If solely there have been another for a master-planned, new-build 2,000-hectare, 85,000-resident group. If solely district heating options with floor supply, electrically powered warmth pumps really existed. If solely the group have been constructed to Swedish insulation requirements. At 85,000 residences, let’s name it 2.51 individuals per family, the Canadian common, in order that’s 34,000 models.

With good insulation in principally multi-unit residential buildings, gigajoules for provision of heating plummet to maybe 40 per family. With shaft-type — drilling! One thing Alberta is sweet at! — floor supply warmth pump coefficients of efficiency of 4 within the heating season, one unit of electrical energy will present 4 models of warmth, so 10 gigajoules of electrical energy could be required yearly by every family. That’s about 3,000 kWh, and even at Alberta’s excessive 17 cents per kWh regulated residential charge throughout the winter season, that’s solely $500 per unit.

Alberta’s electrical energy carbon depth has declined as they ditched the final of their coal vegetation, though the decline is stalled by the province’s ideologically motivated struggle on renewables, and is now at claimed 590 grams of CO2e per kWh. That doubtless understates the precise CO2e as methane emissions from Alberta’s oil and gasoline trade and from methane-burning gadgets like mixed cycle gasoline mills are actually recognized to be a lot increased than beforehand reported, but it surely’s the official quantity, so let’s go along with it.

Burning a gigajoule of pure gasoline produces 50 kilograms of CO2. The typical Edmonton space residence’s heating is producing 6 tons of carbon dioxide per yr. With the warmth pump district heating mannequin, the common unit would have a carbon emissions load of about 1.6 tons of CO2 per yr. And, in fact, when sanity prevails once more in Alberta they usually re-start decarbonizing their electrical energy, that can drop. At BC’s 11.3 grams of CO2e per kWh, the common unit would have a carbon debt of solely 0.031 tons of CO2.

Oh, and all of these models would have air con with coefficients of efficiency of 8, so just one unit of electrical energy is required to maneuver 8 models of warmth out of the constructing. One in three Albertans had air con as of 2019 as a result of summers are getting hotter. Warmth pumps are two means air conditioners. Floor supply warmth pumps in district heating and cooling programs are extremely environment friendly and efficient and are used globally.

For this reason the UK is abandoning hydrogen residential heating trials. For this reason a meta-analysis by Jan Rosenow, Director of European Programmes on the Regulatory Help mission, discovered 54 unbiased research as of December 2023 which have discovered there may be no benefit in hydrogen for residential warmth.

This isn’t remotely arduous math. ATCO can do that math and undoubtedly has. That is predatory delay, not a critical proposal to construct a hydrogen-heated subdivision close to Edmonton. It’s good to be given $2,000,000 of taxpayers cash to restudy one thing which has been studied to demise, and to be allowed to unfold disinformation about European plans when you’re doing it. However as with all hydrogen for vitality schemes, trying on the uncooked information makes it clear that it’s not remotely viable. The couple of million is wasted cash, extra subsidies for the fossil gas and fossil gas adjoining industries.