Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s go to to Malaysia and Indonesia from 9 to 12 January 2025 marked his first bilateral abroad journey since taking workplace. It displays Japan’s intent to strengthen ties with Asean international locations amid shifting international dynamics.
With China’s rising affect within the area and the return of US President Donald Trump creating uncertainties, Ishiba’s engagements underscored Japan’s want to diversify its international diplomacy technique. This helps to make sure Japan’s secure position within the Indo-Pacific whereas serving as a important hyperlink between Asean international locations and its formal ally, the US.
The choice to go to Malaysia and Indonesia isn’t a surprise. Each international locations are key members of Asean. Malaysia, as Asean chair this yr, is an influential voice within the area, whereas Indonesia is the bloc’s largest financial system, most populous nation and a member of the G20 and BRICS.
Throughout his go to, Ishiba introduced important funding commitments, together with US$815 million for initiatives in Indonesia. These initiatives deal with crucial areas similar to port enlargement, human useful resource improvement for authorities officers, and inexperienced power. In Malaysia, discussions centred on advancing commerce, together with semiconductors, strengthening power safety and carbon seize, in addition to strengthening the regional provide chain.
Ishiba’s go to additionally superior Japan’s safety partnerships in Southeast Asia. Other than Japan’s Official Safety Help to offer surveillance and patrol tools similar to high-speed patrol boats to like-minded international locations like Malaysia and Indonesia, a key spotlight was discussions with Indonesia on plans to co-develop a warship for the Indonesian Navy. This highlights the rising depth of their defence ties.
Japan’s overtures to Malaysia and Indonesia — and different Southeast Asian international locations such because the Philippines and Vietnam — underline how the formal US ally is enjoying a key position in linking these international locations to a rising coalition led by Tokyo and Washington.
In August 2023, Japan, South Korea and the US fashioned a brand new trilateral partnership, enabling them to undertake widespread positions on regional safety. In April 2024, the US and Japan integrated the Philippines right into a historic trilateral association to bolster the “free and open worldwide order primarily based on the rule of regulation”. The group held a digital assembly between the leaders of the three international locations on 12 January 2025 to solidify their collective safety posture within the Indo-Pacific.
As a key US ally and a crucial frontline state within the South China Sea disputes, the Philippines performs a pivotal position in Japan’s regional safety technique. Over time, Japan has been instrumental in enhancing the Philippines’ maritime capabilities by focused initiatives, together with bolstering maritime area consciousness, conducting capacity-building programmes, and supplying patrol vessels.
Ishiba has touted his imaginative and prescient of an “Asian NATO” — a proper alliance of US allies within the area arrayed in opposition to a shared risk (learn: China). That is unlikely to materialise, on condition that many Southeast Asian international locations have extra sanguine perceptions about China’s rise and are cautious of latching themselves to any formal navy alliance. However Ishiba will get extra traction in increasing a community of like-minded safety companions to uphold what’s termed the “rules-based order”, primarily based on shared ideas similar to freedom of navigation and adherence to worldwide regulation.
A superb instance can be Tremendous Garuda Protect 2024, an Indonesia-US navy train carried out in East Java, which noticed the participation of Japan, Brunei, Thailand, and Singapore, amongst different extra-regional international locations. Japan has additionally elevated the quantity and scale of navy workout routines within the Indo-Pacific, together with the Talisman workout routines involving the US, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and observers from the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
Moreover, QUAD-lite preparations, which contain Quad members in addition to these between Quad international locations and regional international locations, proceed to proliferate. They contain Japan in configurations such because the US-Japan-Philippines, Australia-India-Japan and US-Japan-Australia trilaterals. This permits Japan and its companions to pursue their nationwide curiosity in bolstering regional safety.
Nonetheless, Japan’s endeavours to increase its safety footprint in Southeast Asia face important challenges. Domestically, constraints similar to restricted defence budgets and political sensitivities surrounding Japan’s pacifist Structure hinder the federal government’s means to maintain large-scale safety commitments.
Trump’s insistence on allies rising their defence contributions might strain Japan to shoulder a larger share of regional safety tasks. In his first time period, Trump reportedly known as on Tokyo to greater than triple its host-nation assist for US troops to US$8 billion.
Japan additionally has rising issues nearer to its house islands. Based on a research by Nikkei Asia, Sino-Russian naval actions round Japan’s southwestern islands rose from 50 in 2023 to 80 in 2024. Tokyo can be involved about Russia’s rising safety ties with North Korea.
Regardless of these challenges, Ishiba’s Southeast Asian visits show Japan’s recognition of Southeast Asia as a linchpin in its Indo-Pacific technique. On the identical time, Japan has been constant in strengthening ties with the US.
It was one of many first allies to satisfy the brand new US administration, as exemplified by the assembly between International Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Rubio’s assembly with the QUAD (US, Japan, Australia, and India) international ministers only a day after Trump’s inauguration. As Southeast Asia’s most trusted companion (as mirrored within the State of Southeast Asia surveys), Japan is in a very good place to function an essential bridge between Asean and the US.
Joanne Lin is a Senior Fellow and Co-coordinator of the Asean Research Centre at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
William Choong is a Senior Fellow on the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and Managing Editor at Fulcrum.
This text was first printed in Fulcrum, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s blogsite.
