Colombia’s EV Market Grew 23% in Q1 & Reached 4% Market Share in March

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The primary trimester is over, and nations are beginning to current their official knowledge for automobile gross sales throughout the first three months of the 12 months. Colombia, considered one of our leaders for EV gross sales within the area final 12 months, began this one with cheap progress amidst a generalized disaster within the automobile sector that has been occurring for 2 years now, without end. It’s all however sure that by now now we have hit peak ICE on this nation.

Value reductions have develop into commonplace within the EV panorama, with some fashions falling as a lot as 20% within the final couple of months: these embody the Chevy Bolt and Kia Niro (minus 20%, at the moment at $42,000), the pickup truck Dongfeng Wealthy-6 (minus 18%, at the moment at $48,750), and the JAC E10X (minus 15%, at the moment at $22,300), amongst others. The dangerous information right here is that ICEV fashions have additionally been falling in worth, as a stagnant market makes it crucial for sellers to scrub their inventories.

Regardless, there’s a normal feeling that ICEV costs will come again up as soon as the state of affairs improves whereas BEV costs will stay in a downward development as extra fashions arrive within the nation. Simply this month BYD will current the BYD Seagull. In a while, Chery is anticipated to reach within the nation with its PHEV lineup and, hopefully, the Chery eQ7. Tesla can be anticipated to reach quickly, and its Mannequin 3 might deal a extreme blow to the BYD Seal, supplied it maintains the comparatively low costs we noticed in Chile.

And but, regardless of each ICEVs and EVs having vital worth reductions, it’s solely EVs that grew: 23% to be exact, whereas the overall market fell 14%. This allowed EVs to go from 2.4% market share in Q1 2023 to three.4% in Q1 2024, reaching 4% throughout March. Whereas such progress could seem lackluster, have in mind it’s taking place earlier than the arrival of heavy hitters just like the Volvo EX30, the Tesla Mannequin 3, and naturally the BYD Seagull (Dolphin Mini), the latter of which is already wreaking havoc within the markets of Mexico, Brazil, and Uruguay.

EV gross sales overview

Colombia’s market is actually minuscule for a rustic its measurement: solely 40,567 gentle and heavy autos have been offered in Q1 2024, of which 994 have been BEVs (2.4%) and 403 have been PHEVs (1%). Gross sales have been rising all year long as costs hold happening, and I’d anticipate that the arrival of standard and inexpensive fashions within the coming months will speed up this development. If issues go effectively, we may very well be seeing 7% EV market share by the latter months of this 12 months, maybe even greater!

(It’s vital to notice that the very excessive gross sales in January–July 2022 have been because of a major variety of electrical buses that arrived in Bogota’s Public Transportation System that 12 months. Additionally they occurred in an total market practically 50% bigger.)

The market is altering quickly, and whereas 2023 introduced close to absolute domination by Chinese language manufacturers, 2024 is beginning fairly totally different:

Solely 5 out of the highest 10 are Chinese language manufacturers! And much more attention-grabbing: three of these stand on the backside of the checklist. Whereas there aren’t any surprises relating to the gold (BYD has dominated this marketplace for some time now), the arrival of BMW and Volvo for silver and bronze is definitely a shock, notably in a market so largely centered on inexpensive autos. Additional down, Chevrolet makes an look because of the Chevy Bolt all of the sudden turning into standard (it’s spectacular what you’ll be able to obtain when, y’know, you don’t cost absurd quantities to your vehicles), and there’s a shocking new participant right here: JMC, a Chinese language model that introduced its lineup in November final 12 months and that I had no excessive hopes for, however which appears to be proving me unsuitable.

Nonetheless, after we take a look at fashions, issues look … totally different.

At first look, issues appear comparable, with 5 Chinese language fashions and 5 from legacy auto. However as soon as we take a look at the main points, we discover that two of the legacy auto fashions are made in China (Renault Kwid, BMW iX3) and one other two could also be made in China (the Volvos). Solely the Chevrolet Bolt stays on this checklist as a definite non-Chinese language automobile.

So, this isn’t a matter of “the Chinese language are coming.” They’re already right here.

Lastly, market share fell from the excessive level that was December 2023 (4.1%), nevertheless it’s climbing up once more, and by March it was solely 0.1% away from reaching that prime level once more. Hopefully this development will preserve throughout April after which speed up as soon as the brand new arrivals begin heating up competitors of their respective segments.

Last ideas

A variety of issues are taking place right here concurrently (or virtually concurrently), so preserving monitor is beginning to develop into arduous. And it’s just one nation.

The federal government remains to be aiming to finish diesel subsidies, nevertheless it hasn’t been in a position to take action because of strain from the transportation guild, which is threatening to strike if costs go up. Regardless, a number of corporations are bringing new and higher electrical vehicles, so if the federal government will get its manner, we’ll see a fast improve within the sale of electrical heavy autos.

Charging is beginning to develop into a critical difficulty. The charging community has barely grown over the past 18 months, most stations have just one charger and just some have two (so there’s little reliability and a excessive likelihood of getting stranded), and there’s the mess of 4 competing charging customary (CCS1, CCS2, GB/T, CHAdeMO), with one other one on the way in which (NACS). Worse even: the federal government nonetheless considers CCS1 because the “official” customary within the nation, forcing all charging stations to place considered one of these first. It’s a on condition that very massive traces will develop into the norm throughout holidays until infrastructure is quickly deployed: for now, solely massive cities have cheap networks, however the primary roads are severely underserved. Charging adapters have gotten commonplace, with a CCS1–CCS2 adapter being offered at a pair hundred {dollars} and the extra complicated CCS1-GB/T at some $1700. Charging-as-a-service is turning into commonplace.

All in all, issues are shifting quick. It’s potential charging infrastructure received’t be as much as the problem, however many individuals should purchase EVs if they’ll cost at residence and costs usually are not too far up. And that’s the core of the problem right here: the sooner we get to cost parity, the earlier ICEV gross sales will probably be changed by EVs. By now, at practically 4% market share, the nation is shifting out of the early adopter section and into the mainstream section, however whether or not the transition accelerates within the following years will rely primarily on pricing. Individuals need cheaper EVs, they usually need them now.

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But although issues are shifting quick, no person appears to be realizing. A pal of mine whose household owns a gasoline station advised me that they anticipate enterprise to stay as it’s for one more three many years, based on the Nationwide Federation of Fuel Stations. One might snicker, however that’s roughly the identical as what the Ministry of Mining and Vitality is saying: their gasoline consumption estimation goes up linearly for 20 years although their estimations for EV gross sales appear to be roughly the identical as mine (~60% by 2030). It’s as if everybody assumes gasoline vehicles final without end, and each EV will solely add to a present fleet, not substitute any ICEVs. At this level I’m questioning if it’s me who’s lacking the apparent!

Nicely, I’ve already written an excessive amount of, however there’s one final thing. I stated every part’s shifting quick, and that’s not completely true. One thing isn’t. The electrical motorbike phase, which began very promising very early on (again in 2016), has been stagnant for years. At some 700,000 models a 12 months, Colombia is the third largest producer and purchaser of bikes within the Western Hemisphere (one of many most important causes its automobile market is so small), so economies of scale exist right here, but the market has barely grown, and native affords stay as costly and as vary restricted as they have been 4 years in the past. Each business and authorities appear to have dropped the ball right here, badly.

Nonetheless, I stay optimistic after I take out my Tremendous Soco for a trip. At some point, all of the bikes round me will probably be silent, simply as mine is.