We’ve been discussing Cruise and robotaxis for weeks following the unlucky loss of life of a pedestrian in San Francisco. It was a pedestrian who was first hit by a automobile subsequent to a Cruise robotaxi, however we nonetheless don’t know if the particular person died on the primary impression or after the Cruise robotaxi adopted that up with what unintentionally occurred subsequent.
Nonetheless, regardless of some ongoing public uncertainty, what is evident is that Cruise is in disaster. Cofounder and CEO Kyle Vogt resigned. Cofounder and Chief Product Officer Dan Kan resigned. And, after all, Cruise’s operations in California had been suspended and Cruise additionally paused operations throughout the nation.
Jo Borras and I simply talked about this on our newest episode of EVObsession, printed a number of moments in the past, however I’ve discovered one other notable piece of knowledge since that recording.
ARK Make investments’s Tasha Keeny posted a chart this week exhibiting that Cruise autos had been having accidents way more steadily than Waymo robotaxis, or Teslas for that matter. She prefaced the chart with, “Cruise imploded. It does look as if the corporate took on extra danger than friends like Waymo.”
1) Cruise imploded. It does look as if the corporate took on extra danger than friends like Waymo. 👇 pic.twitter.com/cR0w4U1tYb
— Tasha Keeney (@TashaARK) November 22, 2023
Assuming these numbers are appropriate, Cruise robotaxis had been entering into far too many crashes!
That’s the start of a 6-tweet thread that explains the chart. Right here’s the remainder, in regular paragraph format:
“[Chart above] takes the figures that Cruise and Waymo alter to be extra apples to apples with the nationwide common, and I alter the nationwide common to floor streets, as that accident statistic is larger per mile than on freeway. Handbook Tesla determine additionally adjusted for floor streets.
“Word Cruise & Waymo printed reviews that drill all the way down to accident stats particular to SF and Phoenix, AND each deal with particular vectors like damage claims and fault, (& Cruise comps to ridehail) which look extra favorable. [link]
“In distinction, my evaluation focuses on a nationwide stage — Waymo nonetheless seems to be higher than the common human, whereas Cruise falls beneath. To be truthful, Cruise notes that the majority of their collisions had been at low velocity they usually imagine human drivers had been typically at fault.
“And sure, Tesla’s FSD software program (which isn’t absolutely driver-out but) seems to be significantly better than its human pushed Tesla benchmark. Nonetheless, I used to be rooting for Cruise, for Kyle and the workforce.
“Yet another factor — Whereas Cruise [may] have fallen by the wayside, each it and Waymo had been pioneers in paving a path to regulatory approval for autonomous automobiles. It’s potential that might profit a big, looming competitor.”
There’s lots there to debate, however I’ll go away most of it for now. On the subject of Cruise, it does appear as if the corporate put its neck out on the road in varied methods, and so I suppose it is smart that it’s within the scenario it’s in whereas Waymo is just not.
Yet another factor I feel this highlights is that the information we sometimes get from these automobiles and their producers is just not quiet enough. We are able to’t simply evaluate numbers throughout the trade, and we don’t have numerous nuance or element in what we see. That’s because of the extremely secretive nature of those firms. However none of those firms — not Cruise, not Waymo, not Tesla — wish to share an excessive amount of data and have the general public digging round and analyzing them. Firm issues appear to outweigh any advantages that will come from notable transparency.
