Map displaying the 5 remaining coal plant proposals in OECD international locations, within the US, Turkey, Japan and Australia. Supply: International Coal Plant Tracker, International Power Monitor.
Furthermore, not one of the 5 proposals at the moment have the mandatory permits for development. This implies it can possible be a number of years earlier than development begins – if they’re constructed in any respect, as a lot of the proposals within the OECD since 2015 have been deserted totally.
Of the 111GW of latest coal capability that was proposed in 2015, 82% (91GW) has since been shelved or cancelled, in comparison with 17% (19GW) commissioned.
It is a massive a part of the discount within the coal pipeline within the OECD, proven within the determine under.
Permitted, pre-permit and introduced coal capability in OECD international locations in GW. Supply: International Coal Plant Tracker, International Power Monitor.
The newest coal crops to enter the development part within the OECD broke floor in 2019. Its 1GW of capability stays below development right this moment.
The 111GW of proposals in 2015 listed within the GCPT have been situated throughout 13 international locations: Australia, Canada, Colombia, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Turkey, the UK and the US.
Since 2015, 12 of the 13 international locations have pledged help for no new coal, whether or not as a part of the worldwide Powering Previous Coal Alliance or by a home moratorium on new coal plant permits. The UK phased out coal energy totally this yr.
These commitments to no new coal have been aided by the reducing prices of competing energy sources, together with fuel and – more and more – photo voltaic and wind energy.
Moreover, many international locations have seen sustained opposition campaigns to new coal crops over the air pollution they’d trigger, their excessive vitality prices and inhabitants displacement.
Because the OECD turns away from new coal, coal energy capability within the area peaked in 2010 at 655GW and has since declined by about one-third to 443GW, as international locations shut down ageing coal crops.
Turkey resists no new coal
Up to now, the federal government of Turkey has resisted calls for no new coal, regardless of repeated rollbacks in its coal plans.
The overwhelming majority of the nation’s proposed coal crops have by no means materialised, as proven within the determine under.
Particularly, since 2015, greater than 70GW of deliberate coal plant capability in Turkey has been referred to as off, in comparison with 6GW commissioned, translating right into a cancellation charge of 92% since 2015. This is without doubt one of the highest cancellation charges on the earth, GCPT knowledge exhibits.
Coal energy crops in Turkey by capability (GW) primarily based on standing, displaying what was in development, working and proposed earlier than 2015 and what has been cancelled, constructed, is working and is proposed in 2024. Supply: International Coal Plant Tracker, International Power Monitor.
Coal plant proposals in Turkey face a myriad of challenges, together with sturdy public opposition over coal plant air pollution and coal trade privatisation. Moreover, home lignite coal is low-quality and unreliable, typically main many crops to make use of higher-cost imported coal as an alternative, weakening the financial case for continued reliance on coal.
Within the third quarter of 2024, the licenses for 2 coal crops – Karaburun and Kirazlıdere – have been cancelled as a consequence of irregularities within the environmental allowing course of and the lack of curiosity within the funding by plant sponsors. One other plant, Malkara, was shelved as a consequence of a scarcity of exercise, GCPT notes.
The developments have left Turkey with just one coal plant proposal – a outstanding improvement after being among the many prime 10 international locations with proposed coal-powered capability for practically a decade.
Regardless of this, Turkey has not dedicated to ending new coal plant proposals. Certainly, its just lately up to date enhanced local weather plan, often called a nationally decided contribution submitted throughout COP29, makes no point out of coal phaseout.
The nation’s remaining proposal is a 688MW two-unit enlargement of the sizable Afşin-Elbistan energy station complicated within the metropolis of Kahramanmaraş.
Native residents have opposed the venture, saying the rise in air pollution within the densely populated metropolis will result in hundreds of untimely deaths and price billions of {dollars}.
Australia, Japan, the US and ‘clear coal’
The remaining 4 coal plant proposals within the OECD are situated in Australia, Japan and the US.
Whereas the federal government of Australia just lately pledged help for no new coal and the Japanese and US governments have been a part of the current G7 dedication to coal phaseout, the three international locations additionally help CCS to minimize or “abate” emissions from coal crops.
Abated coal crops could also be thought-about suitable with no new coal pledges in the event that they “considerably scale back” carbon emissions sufficient to satisfy Paris-aligned targets.
Critics argue that coal CCS proposals are dearer and polluting than cleaner electrical energy alternate options, typically relying closely on authorities subsidies with a view to be economically viable.
Solely a handful of CCS coal crops have ever reached industrial operation – and none have captured as a lot of the ensuing CO2 as they have been focusing on.
The Japanese authorities signed on to a G7 settlement earlier this yr to part out unabated coal energy by the mid-2030s and continues to advertise a collection of “clear coal” applied sciences, each domestically and overseas.
The nation’s single remaining coal plant proposal is a brand new coal “gasification” unit at J-Energy’s Matsushima energy station, dubbed GENESIS. The plant would gasify the coal, then co-fire the ensuing gases with biomass, ammonia and hydrogen, earlier than utilizing CCS to abate the ensuing emissions.
Beneath outgoing president Joe Biden, the US additionally signed on to the G7 settlement and was certainly one of twelve international locations that joined the Powering Previous Coal Alliance throughout COP28 in 2023.
The nation has two Division of Power (DOE)-backed coal-fired energy plant proposals that embrace plans for CCS, as required below pending Environmental Safety Company (EPA) rules for brand new coal energy crops.
Whereas the way forward for each the coal pledges and rules are unsure, given the current re-election of Donald Trump, thus far the previous president has been unable to show the tide for coal. Extra coal energy capability was retired below Trump’s first time period than both Barack Obama or Biden, and no new coal crops have been constructed within the US for over a decade.
Australia’s Labor occasion voted into energy in 2022 just lately joined a COP29 name for no new unabated coal. The nation has not commissioned a brand new coal plant since 2012, with over 13GW of proposed coal-fired capability cancelled since 2010.
The nation’s remaining coal proposal, the Collinsville (Shine Power) energy station, has been touted by its sponsors as a “excessive effectivity, low emissions” (HELE) coal venture with plans to incorporate CCS.
Regardless of these sparse plans for the event of additional coal tasks, subsequently, it appears clear that the top is in sight for coal energy within the OECD.
This story was printed with permission from Carbon Temporary.
