For the previous few years, the international locations of Bhutan, Bangladesh, India and Nepal have been slowly working in direction of cross-border vitality commerce.
On 3 October, this cooperation achieved a serious milestone. Bangladesh’s new regime signed a tripartite settlement to import 40 megawatts (MW) of hydropower from Nepal, through Indian territory. The hydropower potential of Nepal and Bhutan, estimated to be greater than 100 gigawatts (GW), will strengthen this vitality cooperation.
Consultants counsel, nevertheless, that this scramble for hydropower ignores the influence of local weather change upon the Himalayan area.
India had been the lone electrical energy buying and selling accomplice for Nepal and Bhutan for many years. This settlement offers the landlocked nations a possibility to promote their surplus, monsoon-generated hydropower past India for the primary time.
Dasho Chhewang Rinzin, the managing director of Druk Inexperienced Energy Company Restricted in Bhutan, commented on this example in 2022 at a digital World Financial institution occasion: “Many occasions, we’re questioned about holding all our eggs [hydropower] in a single basket [India], and I retort by saying now we have just one egg and one basket.” He stated an settlement for regional electrical energy commerce would assist Bhutan diversify its basket.
For India, the ability imported from Nepal and Bhutan has been important in assembly steep demand spikes throughout summer time months, and sustaining its grid stability. A living proof is northern India’s report energy demand of 89GW in a single day, which occurred on 17 June because the area suffered its longest heatwave in 15 years. India imported 25-30 per cent of the ability it wanted that day, in response to the nationwide energy ministry.
Bangladesh recorded its longest ever heatwave this yr, in addition to its highest temperature of the previous 5 many years. On 29 April, the nation confronted an influence shortfall of three,196MW, nevertheless it had no recourse to import electrical energy from Bhutan or Nepal.
Importing renewable hydropower might moreover help Bangladesh in weaning itself off fossil fuels. At the moment, 68 per cent of the nation’s vitality is generated utilizing pure gasoline, 31 per cent utilizing coal and oil.
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The US and western donors are much less all for investing in hydropower growth as they don’t seem to be secure for the atmosphere and native communities. Nevertheless, they’re holding a hawkish eye on the tussle over hydropower between India and China.
Narayani Sritharan, assistant analysis professor, AidData
It may additionally be cheaper. In line with Shafiqul Alam, the Institute for Power Economics and Monetary Evaluation’ lead vitality analyst for Bangladesh, the common energy era value within the nation soared from US$0.055 per kilowatt hour in 2020-2021, to US$0.095 the next yr.
“We frequently see that the IEX [Indian Energy Exchange] vitality market is cheaper than the common energy era value in Bangladesh,” Alam provides.
Local weather change influence on hydropower
Local weather impacts could develop into a complicating think about vitality commerce amongst Bhutan, Bangladesh, India and Nepal.
In line with a report by the Worldwide Power Company, the Himalayan area (Bhutan and Nepal) tasks a drop in hydropower capability of three.9-5.2 per cent between 2020 and 2059 “attributable to altering local weather circumstances”.
These embrace “growing variability in streamflow, shifting seasonal flows and augmenting evaporation losses from reservoirs”, in addition to the influence of “excessive climate occasions resembling heavy rainfall and related landslides [which] can hinder growth of hydropower tasks”.
A few of this has already be noticed in actual time. Throughout this yr’s monsoon season, Nepal’s hydropower sector misplaced out on vitality era value round NPR 2.45 billion (US$18 million) attributable to floods and landslides. About 1,100MW of hydroelectricity manufacturing was halted attributable to flood harm, says Deepak Khadka, Nepal’s minister for vitality, water assets and irrigation.
The melting of glaciers may even have an effect. Within the brief time period it might quickly enhance water flows, says Arun Bhakta Shrestha, a senior local weather change specialist on the Worldwide Centre for Built-in Mountain Improvement. This is able to result in greater energy era, particularly for hydropower tasks within the upstream elements of basins.
“This additionally raises the chance of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and flash floods,” provides Shrestha, “which might trigger bodily harm to hydropower infrastructure and disrupt operations.
“Hydropower tasks within the upstream a part of the basins might be extra delicate to [climate] impacts, as meltwater is the dominant supply of water there. The seasonal variability brought on by altering precipitation patterns and fewer predictable snowmelt will possible scale back hydropower’s reliability as a constant vitality supply.”
Constructing higher dams
Dialogue Earth consulted Dhruba Purkayastha, who directs progress and institutional development on the Council on Power, Atmosphere and Water, an Indian thinktank. He agrees there are dangers: “This incremental local weather threat must be subsidised by the Organisation for Financial Co-operation and Improvement [OECD) countries, because without developing hydropower resources in the region, South Asia is likely to continue its carbon-intensive economic growth.”
One way to way to deal with the issue is engineering, non-engineering and nature-based solutions to make hydropower infrastructure climate-resilient, adds Shreshta. “Newer hydropower projects should incorporate design modifications that account for increased flood risks, including dam design, flood control mechanisms, powerhouse configuration, etc, to withstand extreme weather events.”
There were 228 hydropower projects of more than 1MW capacity under construction in Nepal as of May 2023; more than 10 megaprojects are being established in Bhutan. But there is little evidence these are incorporating climate-resilient policies. In fact, Nepal’s hydropower boom has largely ignored environmental issues, such as the impact of dams on biodiversity.
Complicating the picture further, there is only a small pool of investors. Neither China nor developed countries are investing in hydropower in Nepal or Bhutan.
There are also no existing power transmission lines between Nepal and China, although there are possibilities that this may change as China and Nepal continue to talk about hydropower trade. At the same time, “India is pushing out China from Nepal’s market,” says Narayani Sritharan, a visiting assistant research professor at the William & Mary Global Research Institute’s lab, AidData.
For developed countries, the rationale is different. Many are actively dismantling ageing hydropower infrastructure, considered counterproductive due to the socioeconomic and environmental impacts of dams.
“The US and western donors are less interested in investing in hydropower development as they are not safe for the environment and local communities,” says Sritharan. “However, they are keeping a hawkish eye on the tussle over hydropower between India and China.”
This article was originally published on Dialogue Earth under a Creative Commons licence.
