EVs Take 27.6% Share In France — Citroën e-C3 Arrives In A Rush

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September’s auto gross sales noticed plugin EVs take 27.6% share in France, a drop from 29.3% yr on yr. BEV share grew modestly YoY, whereas PHEV share fell. Total auto quantity was 139,003 models, down by some 11% YoY. The Tesla Mannequin Y was the perfect promoting BEV in September.

September’s market information noticed mixed plugin EVs take 27.6% share in France, with 20.4% full battery-electrics (BEVs) and seven.2% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These examine with YoY figures of 29.3% mixed, 19.3% BEV and 10.0% PHEV.

BEV quantity truly decreased by some 6% YoY — although, in a broader market which noticed an 11% drop, BEV share nonetheless elevated marginally. PHEVs fared much less properly, with quantity down some 26% YoY and share all the way down to 7.2% from 10.0%. PHEV share has been remarkably regular at 7-something % for the previous 6 months.

12 months up to now, BEVs have solely taken a further ~1.2% of market share in contrast thus far final yr (17.1% vs 15.9%), which is clearly a weak progress trajectory. The excellent news is that each Citroen and Renault have lastly began buyer deliveries of their new somewhat-affordable BEVs in September, having solely delivered small numbers of dealer-demonstration models beforehand.

The Renault 5 noticed a good 1,101 models in September, and the Citroen e-C3 made a powerful 3,626 registrations. If the approaching few months may maybe keep (or improve) these sorts of volumes, it should reinforce 2024’s general BEV trajectory again into comparatively constructive territory, nevertheless it’s not but a positive factor, as we are going to see beneath.

As we are able to see from the powertrain evolution chart beneath, petrol-only gross sales proceed to get replaced by HEV gross sales, in nearly direct proportion. Nonetheless, nearly half of those “HEVs” tallied up by the French auto trade physique (the PFA) are in actual fact merely mild-hybrids that usually use a really modest electrical motor complement to an ICE engine and do mild regen, quite than having the ability to drive in electrical mode per se, even for a brief distance (as full HEVs at the least can do, to some extent).

These sorts of mild-hybrid HEVs do enhance an ICE engine’s gasoline financial system modestly (by round 15% usually), however are solely a quick-fix momentary stopgap on the way in which to largely plugin powertrains, and ultimately, nearly totally BEVs.

Diesel-only gross sales additionally continued to shrink, all the way down to a brand new file low of 5.8% share (from 8.5% YoY), and eight,083 models.

Finest Promoting BEV Fashions

The Tesla Mannequin Y was again to the highest of France’s BEV charts in September, with a powerful 4,591 registrations. That is its greatest end result since December 2023, and solely barely beneath the YoY quantity from September 2023. Provided that there are actually a a lot wider array of BEV fashions accessible in comparison with a yr in the past, that is a powerful end result.

In second place was the brand new Citroen e-C3, with 3,626 models, and in third was the Peugeot e-208, with 1,420 models.

The Renault Scenic, in 4th, put in a file efficiency, 1,264 registrations, up from its earlier better of 991 registrations in July. As we are going to see beneath, this implies the Scenic has simply overtaken its older sibling, the Megane, within the trailing 3-month rankings, as we not too long ago predicted.

The Mini Cooper has additionally continued to develop, now touchdown in sixth spot with a brand new file of 1,091 registrations. Is that this, in actual fact, the Cooper mannequin? The AAA information supply simply names the “Mini – Mini” because the bearer of this tally, so this might in actual fact be any of, or maybe some mixture of, the brand new era of Mini BEVs. Tell us within the feedback when you have insights.

There wasn’t an excessive amount of dramatic information within the prime 20 ranks, aside from the long-awaited quantity arrival of the 2 new “inexpensive” BEVs from Citroen and Renault that I discussed earlier. We solely have entry to restricted mannequin quantity information, and evidently below-the-radar numbers (low 3-digit volumes) of each of those new BEVs in actual fact began to be registered over the previous two months, presumably for preliminary dealer-demonstration models.

There’s a blended blessing within the spectacular wanting Citroen e-C3 numbers for September. From native reporting, evidently this surprisingly giant quantity of three,626 models was the results of a rush job by Citroen to attempt to meet the end-of-September deadline for delivering automobiles contracted below the the Social Leasing Programme, signed in early 2024.

Within the occasion that Citroen didn’t meet the supply deadline for the federal government programme (and allow shoppers to say the inducement), it must honour the low cost pricing itself … and ultimately, that unlucky consequence occurred. Though 3,626 models did meet the deadline, an additional 2,000 to 2,500 contracted models didn’t, so Citroen needed to honour the low cost out of its personal pocket. This apparently amounted to round €13,000 per automobile, costing Citroen a tidy ~€30 million.

I’m undecided if an identical state of affairs utilized to the timing of the first rate variety of Renault 5 deliveries in September additionally, tell us when you have information about that. Both means, although unlucky, these missteps will possible fade from view in the long term, if the Citroen e-C3 lives as much as its potential of being the model’s greatest promoting BEV, with many tens of hundreds — even perhaps low a whole bunch of hundreds — of models bought yearly.

Let’s now have a look at the 3-month charts:

Regardless of its erratic month-to-month numbers, the longer-term view exhibits that the Tesla Mannequin Y continues to be in a robust lead general within the French BEV market.

The Citroen e-C3’s September rush-job instantly boosted it to second place, however this can be a brief rank (at the least within the short-term), as soon as it begins delivering the initially modest month-to-month output to different European nations. In the long term, as soon as absolutely ramped and with a number of value variants, the e-C3 may (ought to?) actually be an everyday member of France’s prime 3.

The outdated native favorite, the Peugeot e-208, stays in style for now, and took third place.

As alluded to earlier, the Renault Scenic has now lastly overtaken its older sibling, the Megane, by a slim margin (20 models), ending up in fourth place in September. We are able to count on this new household pecking-order to stay in place for the foreseeable future — at the least till the Renault 5 begins to achieve actually vital manufacturing volumes over the subsequent yr or so.

Speaking of the Renault 5, on prime of September’s 1,101 models, there have been a handful of models (of unknown amount) delivered over the previous couple of months, so I’ve given it an honorary 1,250 models within the 3-month chart, which places it someplace between the Volkswagen ID.3 and ID.4 siblings. Relying on its ramp-up and nation allocation choices, the brand new Renault 5 will possible keep within the prime 15 spots within the subsequent couple of months, and regularly rise, maybe into the highest 5 spots, over the subsequent yr or so. Let’s keep watch over it.

Outlook

Considerably clumsily in Citroen’s case, the brand new more-affordable small BEVs have lastly arrived in substantial volumes in France, and will now assist carry the EV trajectory for the rest of the yr. As talked about a number of instances not too long ago, Europe’s BEV transition will solely correctly resume its upward journey in 2025, when tighter emissions laws come into impact throughout the EU regulatory zone.

France’s broader financial system stays tepid, however much less weak than a lot of its neighbours’. Q2 2024 GDP output was simply 1% up YoY, the most recent inflation figures are at an improved 1.2%, and rates of interest (from the ECB) decreased to three.65%. Manufacturing PMI stays weak, nevertheless, at 44.6 factors in September, from 43.9 factors in August.

With the brand new Citroen e-C3 and Renault 5 now lastly reaching shoppers, what are your ideas on the 2024 EV transition trajectory for France? As a reminder, 2021 full yr noticed 9.8% BEV share, 2022 noticed 13.3%, and 2023 noticed 16.8%. As of now, 2024 yr up to now stands at 17.1%. With these new fashions, will BEV share attain near 19% for full yr 2024? Tell us within the feedback beneath.