New reporting from Bernreuter Analysis discovered that polysilicon imports into China have fallen to the bottom degree since 2011. Outdoors imports of polysilicon fell by 28.5% to 62,965 MT in 2023 — now lower than the 64,614 MT reached in 2011.
Credit score: Hemlock
“The non-Chinese language polysilicon producers Wacker, Hemlock Semiconductor and OCI Malaysia are more and more shifting their shipments from China to Vietnam, the place three of the 4 largest Chinese language photo voltaic module suppliers have established wafer vegetation,” defined Johannes Bernreuter, head of the polysilicon market specialist Bernreuter Analysis and writer of the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027.
In 2018/2019 JA Photo voltaic began wafer manufacturing in Vietnam with an annual capability of 1.5 GW, which it expanded to 4 GW within the first half of 2023. JinkoSolar adopted with a 7-GW wafer plant in early 2022, and Trina Photo voltaic opened a 6.5-GW wafer manufacturing unit in August 2023.
The shift of non-Chinese language polysilicon being exported elsewhere is usually because of the AD/CVD case in the US in opposition to Chinese language producers working in Southeast Asia. If Southeast Asian photo voltaic exports don’t use Chinese language wafers, they don’t need to pay the tariffs starting in June. To conform, most producers making product for the U.S. market have shifted upstream manufacturing out of China.
As well as, the Uyghur Pressured Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) that bands merchandise made with compelled labor in Xinjiang in northwestern China from getting into the US, is contributing to separate provide chains primarily based on polysilicon from non-Chinese language producers. Having wafer manufacturing outdoors China makes it simpler for the producers to doc to U.S. Customs and Border Safety (CBP) that no silicon steel or polysilicon from Xinjiang has entered their provide chains.
Nevertheless, customs statistics present that polysilicon exports from China to Vietnam soared from 639 MT in 2022 to 4,970 MT in 2023. “That raises doubts in regards to the claims of a separate provide chain and may sound alarm bells on the CBP,” Bernreuter stated.
Hemlock Semiconductor (USA), Wacker (Germany/USA) and OCI Malaysia collectively had been in a position to improve their polysilicon exports to Vietnam from 18,672 MT in 2022 (+78.2%) to 33,265 MT in 2023. This progress greater than compensated for the 13,918 MT they misplaced in enterprise quantity in China in 2023. Whereas Hemlock and OCI achieved a internet improve from their exports to each nations, Wacker’s two German polysilicon vegetation exhibit a unfavorable stability: Though they had been in a position to increase the exports to Vietnam by 7,617 MT (+151%) to 12,662 MT, their imports into China plummeted from 48,070 MT in 2022 by 12,627 MT (-26.3%) to 35,443 MT in 2023.
Wacker and OCI account for 98% of Chinese language polysilicon imports now
Through the polysilicon scarcity, China imported terribly giant volumes from Japan (2021: 15,431 MT; 2022: 6,129 MT) and Taiwan (2021: 6,899 MT; 2022: 3,480 MT). At excessive market costs, the Japanese photo voltaic module producer Sharp transformed into money appreciable inventories, which resulted from a long-term buy contract with Hemlock Semiconductor operating by way of 2020. Likewise, the previous Taiwanese wafer producer Danen bought polysilicon shares from a long-term contract with OCI, which expired in 2023. These two sources have clearly been exhausted now: Japan’s month-to-month import price melted right down to a variety of fifty MT to twenty MT within the fourth quarter of 2023; shipments from Taiwan have already gone right down to zero since final August.
Imports from the US and South Korea developed in a really related solution to these from Japan in 2023. Consequently, the mixed share of Germany’s Wacker and OCI Malaysia in complete Chinese language polysilicon imports rose to 97.8% within the fourth quarter. Furthermore, there was a placing drop in general volumes since October: Whereas complete imports lay between roughly 15,000 MT and 20,000 MT per quarter within the first three quarters, the quantity fell abruptly to lower than 10,000 MT within the fourth.
“If the fourth quarter is any indicator for 2024, then polysilicon imports into China will plunge by one other 40% to not more than 38,000 MT this yr,” Bernreuter stated.
Information merchandise from Bernreuter Analysis
