Incremental unplanned era outages triggered throughout Winter Storm Elliot spiked to 90.5 GW—considerably greater than the 61.8 GW throughout Winter Storm Uri in 2021—representing 13% of the U.S. portion of anticipated sources within the Jap Interconnection.
That discovering, one among many disturbing particulars unveiled by the Federal Vitality Regulatory Fee (FERC) and North American Electrical Reliability Company (NERC) as a part of their joint inquiry into the devastating December 2022 winter storm, factors to an pressing want for chilly climate reliability commonplace revisions for energy and fuel programs, the entities urged on Sept. 21. Whereas the ultimate report delving deeper into the occasion is scheduled to be printed in full this fall, a presentation on Thursday by FERC and NERC employees, together with employees from NERC’s six regional entities, sought to unravel the complexities of the storm’s affect.
It means that the storm’s worst circumstances on Dec. 23 to 24, 2022, struck as winter masses peaked and unplanned era outages soared to historic ranges. Unplanned era outages throughout Winter Storm Elliot—now the U.S.’s fifth reliability-roiling winter storm previously 11 years—have been practically 40% larger than throughout Winter Storm Uri, the February 2021 freeze that triggered the lack of 68.1 GW of era within the Electrical Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), Southwest Energy Pool (SPP), and the Midcontinent Unbiased System Operator (MISO).
90.5 GW of Incremental Co-incident Unplanned Era Outages
Mixed, throughout Winter Storm Elliot, 1,702 particular person producing items skilled 3,565 outages, derates, or failures to start out. Of those, 825 items—practically half— have been pure gas-fired mills.
FERC and NERC stated 55% of producing unit outages, derates, and failures to start out have been primarily attributable to freezing and gasoline points. Whereas an estimated 41% of those occasions are attributed to mechanical or electrical points, the joint inquiry workforce “discovered them to be correlated with subfreezing temperatures.” One other key discovering employees highlighted is that mills that had mechanical/electrical points “elevated with reducing ambient temperatures.”
In the meantime, of mills that suffered “freezing points,” practically 80% occurred at ambient temperatures that have been above their documented minimal working temperatures. Put in a starker means, that signifies that “practically 80% of the producing items did not carry out at temperatures above their very own documented minimal working temperatures,” FERC and NERC underscored.
The circumstances prompted a number of balancing authorities (BAs) throughout the Jap U.S. to declare vitality emergencies, and a few, to shed load. In whole, 5 GW of agency load was shed throughout totally different occasions. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) BA bore the brunt of the disaster, enduring practically eight hours of load shedding, 3 GW at its worst level. Duke Vitality Carolinas (DEC) and Duke Vitality Progress (DEP) BAs shed a mixed three hours of load, a complete 1.9 GW at their worst factors. Louisville Fuel and Electrical–Kentucky Utilities (LGE-KU) BA weathered roughly 4 hours of load shedding and at its worst level, 300 MW.
Within the southeastern U.S., Dominion Vitality South Carolina (DESC) and South Carolina Public Service Administration/Santee Cooper (SC PSA) BAs skilled short-lived however impactful load-shedding occasions of 94 MW and 86 MW, respectively. Whereas these impacts prompted PJM, Southern, MISO, SPP, and ISO-NE to declare vitality emergencies, the entities have been spared from agency load shedding.
A Obtrusive Fuel Provide Disaster
The presentation additionally reveals that the crippling excessive chilly climate occasion performed out as dry pure fuel manufacturing within the decrease 48 states dropped to a low of 82.5 billion cubic toes (Bcf) on Dec. 24—a 16% lower (16.1 Bcf) in comparison with Dec. 21. Pure fuel manufacturing infrastructure suffered wellhead freeze-offs and tools freezing, in addition to poor street circumstances. Processing services additionally suffered disruptions, outages, and working points, which affected manufacturing volumes. These have been exacerbated by freezing and mechanical points, employees stated. Freezing and mechanical points on pipeline infrastructure additionally brought about points.
In an announcement on Thursday, FERC and NERC underscored that pure fuel pipeline pressures “dropped largely due to freeze-related manufacturing declines in manufacturing of Marcellus (23%) and Utica (54%) shales, in addition to different pure fuel infrastructure freeze- and equipment-related issues. Each cold-weather inquiry report that has studied pure fuel manufacturing has discovered cold-related declines in pure fuel manufacturing, by as a lot as 70% in some instances.” In the meantime, Consolidated Edison, which serves the higher New York Metropolitan space, “confronted reliability-threatening low pressures on its supply pipelines, forcing it to declare an emergency and use its personal liquefied pure fuel facility to take care of service,” they famous.
These disruptions have been debilitating to the facility system. The presentation says that 63 pure fuel energy unit outages or derates—a surprising 10 GW—have been “as a result of agency fuel transportation curtailments throughout the occasion.”
However, on the similar time, larger transmission flows resulted in constraints, although many have been mitigated by grid operator actions. PJM, for instance, curtailed an influence switch to TVA to resolve a real-time constraint on Dec. 23. MISO declared two native transmission emergencies (LTEs), one to entry further hydropower capability.
A ‘Sobering’ Report That Calls for Motion
A key setback might have been that the majority BAs “underestimated” load on Dec. 23 and Dec. 24, 2022. “One BA’s underestimation was as a lot as 11.6% for his or her ‘day-ahead’ forecast for Dec. 23,” the presentation notes. “Two BAs’ underestimations have been as a lot as 5% for his or her ‘day-ahead’ forecasts for Dec. 24.”
Most of those points echo challenges that have been current throughout previous chilly climate occasions, FERC and NERC stated. In an announcement, NERC President and CEO Jim Robb known as the report “sobering.” It “underscores the necessity to take pressing motion on the interdependence between the majority electrical and pure fuel programs, together with the necessity for enough and dependable fuel and electrical infrastructure to maintain vitality reliability,” he stated.
FERC and NERC advisable 11 quick actions. “The report states there have to be sturdy monitoring of how the business is implementing present chilly climate Reliability Requirements to find out if reliability gaps exist. Additionally, NERC ought to acquire an impartial technical evaluate of the causes of cold-related mechanical and electrical era outages to determine preventive measures, which incorporates figuring out if further reliability requirements are wanted,” they added.
As well as, the report suggests Congress and state legislators or regulators should set up reliability guidelines for pure fuel infrastructure to make sure chilly climate reliability. “At present, no regulatory entity is tasked with guaranteeing the reliability of the pure fuel infrastructure on which the electrical grid depends,” FERC and NERC famous.
To resolve long-standing fuel and electrical interdependency challenges, the report recommends that the North American Vitality Requirements Board [NAESB] convene a gathering of fuel and electrical grid operators and fuel distribution corporations to determine enhancements in communication throughout excessive chilly climate occasions. (NAESB, notably, in July 2023 issued a big report outlining options to deal with “systemic weaknesses” within the pure fuel and electrical community nexus.) That might “improve consciousness throughout the pure fuel provide chain,” FERC and NERC stated. “As well as, the report suggests hiring an impartial analysis group to research whether or not further fuel infrastructure is required to help grid reliability and meet the wants of fuel utilities.”
“NERC, the regional entities, and FERC are totally dedicated to discovering efficient, collaborative options according to these findings,” Robb stated. “The report additionally reaffirms NERC’s equally sturdy dedication to finishing Reliability Requirements work to make sure business is ready for excessive chilly climate.”
FERC Chairman Willie Phillips in an announcement additionally underscored pressing motion. “It’s abundantly clear that we should make main enhancements to the cold-weather reliability of each the pure fuel and electrical energy manufacturing and grid programs,” he stated. “I’ve stated repeatedly: Somebody—it doesn’t should be FERC—will need to have authority to ascertain and implement pure fuel reliability requirements. And a few suggestions from the 2021 Uri report are nonetheless not carried out.”
Phillips pleaded: “Please get that performed. It shouldn’t take 5 winter storms in 11 years to point out us the gravity of the scenario we discover ourselves in.”
—Sonal Patel is a POWER senior affiliate editor (@sonalcpatel, @POWERmagazine).
