Hydrogen for Power Serves Fossil Gas Pursuits Not Local weather Change or Economic system

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The long-running seminar sequence for India’s utility professionals by way of the India Sensible Grid Discussion board closed with hydrogen. The hype glitter is beginning to tarnish, however there’s nonetheless lots of substance-less shiny noise across the molecule. To that finish, I stepped by way of the challenges and why hydrogen is nearly at all times a dearer alternative than present, commercialized alternate options for power functions.

The video presentation is embedded beneath, and a calmly edited transcript with slides follows.

Reji Kumar (RK): Good morning, good afternoon, good night to all of the contributors and it’s our subsequent version of this webinar. We’re comfortable to schedule. Now that is on hydrogen. So a lot of you could have seen a number of waves of hydrogen, perhaps for the final 30-40 years, completely different waves of hydrogen. And the hydrogen financial system, individuals have been speaking about it because the Eighties, so none of them turned very profitable. Billions of traders’ {dollars} have gone down the prepare. There are answers, there are applied sciences, however not competing with different present applied sciences. And at present the final wave of hydrogen we began about 5 years in the past, tons of of billions of {dollars} have been dedicated for inexperienced hydrogen which will likely be produced from renewable power by way of electrolyzers and that hydrogen will likely be compressed to -260 diploma centigrade and transported to completely different places for various use circumstances. Sounds very power inefficient.

For those who take a look at the overall power within the worth chain of hygiene manufacturing, together with transportation, individuals speaking about operating, actually experimented operating trains, hydrogen trains in totally electrified tracks, issues have gone to that extent. We don’t know who’s guiding these items, who’s investing in these applied sciences. And all inexperienced hydrogen manufacturing has, by way of electrolyzer, concerned essential minerals that are quick in provide. The initiatives which have been dedicated and initiatives for which funding has been dedicated to finish. And people electrolysis, the uncommon supplies which will likely be produced within the subsequent 50 years, is probably not enough. And one other research which Barnard had finished early this yr says that just about 99% of the initiatives that are introduced, there aren’t any patrons as a result of it’s very costly.

So he’ll take us by way of right this moment within the webinar concerning the precise economics and dynamics of inexperienced hydrogen. Over to Michael.

Michael Barnard (MB): Thanks, Reji, and as at all times, thanks to the ISGF as properly for permitting me to take part in a small manner in aiding the good nation of India to seek out that path that features each prosperity on your, for all and local weather motion.

So that is an attention-grabbing cowl web page. It’s a grade seven scholar. He’s making hydrogen in a faculty lab as a result of that’s concerning the age, grade seven, round twelve years outdated, the place youngsters make hydrogen at school. And this results in lots of misperceptions. The misperception is, properly, if youngsters can do it’s low-cost, it’s simple, and due to this fact it should scale and change into economically viable as a substitute. They let it on hearth. They see the power. Sadly, that leads a complete bunch of individuals down a backyard path. That is really a canopy graphic from a brief story of a devoted hydrogen power researcher that I wrote, which went by way of each single small backwater of hydrogen and confirmed why all of them have been uneconomic and unviable in comparison with alternate options.

So I’m going to spin you thru among the framing slides from that illustration. Often someone says, properly, you missed x. And I’m pondering, no, I didn’t. I spent lots of time taking a look at each a part of hydrogen, partly as a result of it’s attention-grabbing, partly as a result of why are we spending a lot time on it, together with this seminar, when it’s not match for objective? Now, word, that’s hydrogen for power, not hydrogen for industrial feedstocks, which it’s. Final framing piece. Hydrogen right this moment is a local weather change drawback on the size of all aviation. We use it to refine oil, we use it to make fertilizer, we use it to make methanol, we use it to do a bunch of different stuff. And hydrogen right this moment is a large carbon bomb.

And so now we have this actual disconnect between fixing a local weather drawback versus fixing different local weather issues. So I’m going to begin out with. I’ve created these framework charts. They’re simply little framework charts. They’re quite simple. They’ve a, you understand, continuum. On this case, it’s costly, which goes to be a recurrent theme versus cheaper, and so they have soiled versus clear. So after you take a look at every of those charts, simply have a look on the labels to see what the measurement is. And so that is manufacturing hydrogen. It’s problematic. You recognize, we will have soiled and low-cost, soiled and comparatively low-cost hydrogen. Simply bye. Utilizing steam reformation of pure fuel, or coal fuel, the 2 main strategies, or oil, even any hydrocarbon, to separate the hydrogen out and make a bunch of carbon dioxide, which will get made into the ambiance.

And that’s nonetheless. That’s the most cost effective hydrogen that exists, and it’s 99.9% of all hydrogen manufactured right this moment. Now, we will add carbon seize to steam reformation, however that makes it fairly a bit dearer. Then there’s one thing known as pyrolysis, which is definitely thermolysis, as an knowledgeable within the know-how informed me not too long ago, the place we put methane right into a sealed chamber within the absence of oxygen, and we warmth it up, and it turns into three tons of black carbon and a ton of hydrogen. So it’s actually a producing mechanism for black carbon, which we don’t want that a lot of, however but once more, dearer than steam reformation of methane. However it’s cleaner. Pure fuel pyrolysis, whereas a lifeless finish, in addition to many of the others, is problematic.

After which we even have low carbon electrolysis. In precise low carbon electrolysis, we will’t simply use grid electrical energy, as a result of grid electrical energy isn’t clear sufficient to make it really decrease carbon than simply making hydrogen from pure fuel utilizing the dirtiest mechanism, the grid electrical energy. What we require is a trifecta of additionality. Additionality, which suggests we add the identical quantity of power within the type of renewables to the grid close to the. That we’d like. For the hydrogen, we’d like temporality, which suggests the renewables are producing electrical energy similtaneously the hydrogen is required, after which we require locality, which is the hydrogen. The renewables are in the identical area of the grid because the hydrogen is being manufactured.

The rationale for these three necessities is that if we take a grimy grid, like proper now in Europe, Poland continues to be utilizing lots of coal. It has some insufficient plans to get off of them with nuclear, however. And it’ll finally be taught that it wants lots of renewables. If individuals made hydrogen in Poland utilizing the grid and simply constructed a bunch of wind farms and photo voltaic farms in Spain, the hydrogen manufactured in Poland would nonetheless be filthy, and it could add necessities for electrical energy in a excessive carbon grid, which might be met by carbon sources. That’s why the three causes are there, and so they add challenges by way of doing this proper now, it’s an issue for a lot of issues. Then there’s white hydrogen. Proper now, there’s lots of hype about geological assets of hydrogen. However there’s assets, after which there’s confirmed assets. The truth that there’s some hydrogen down there doesn’t imply that it’s recoverable economically, and it doesn’t imply it’s recoverable economically.

And within the volumes which might be required, the most important ones which have been recognized are simply not that huge, and so they’re unproven assets. There’s an estimation of how a lot hydrogen is in there, however that doesn’t imply we will get well it. To present you a evaluate and distinction, one of many frequent methods that’s used within the oil and fuel trade is enhanced oil restoration, the place we put carbon dioxide down a tactile oil properly to unlock a complete bunch of the unrecoverable useful resource that’s in there. Similar factor with hydrogen. It is available in quite a lot of types underground. We don’t know the way a lot we’ll be capable of get out of it. And most of these assets aren’t anyplace close to the place hydrogen is required. That’s an issue.

So sort of the subsequent drawback with hydrogen is definitely storing it. The extra this one’s dense versus diffuse, an enormous drawback with hydrogen, and cheaper versus costly. The large drawback with hydrogen is it’s one of many least dense gases within the universe. It’s proper down there. It’s simply the molecules don’t need to be very shut collectively. They separate and scattered like a pack of kittens you place down, and so they simply all run in numerous instructions. As a room temperature fuel, it’s extremely diffuse. It’s comparatively low-cost to retailer, however you may’t retailer very a lot of it. And that is sort of an issue. You at all times hear the factor. Nicely, it’s extremely power dense, however that’s by mass. Sadly, hydrogen shouldn’t be power dense by quantity. And the quantity is problematic as a result of we will’t think about a hydrogen automobile. We are able to’t tow a zeppelin balloon just like the Goodyear blimp stuffed with hydrogen behind a automobile. We have now to compress it down.

And in order that will get to the conventional course of, which is pressurizing it to 350 to 700 atmospheres of strain in particular tanks designed for that, utilizing particular compressors. And this can be a drawback space that most individuals don’t take into consideration. Most individuals don’t take into consideration compressors, however compressors have gaskets and internals, and the upper the pressures, the extra exactingly they need to be machined, the higher the tolerances need to be. The dearer the supplies need to be. And the extra, the smaller the molecules that they’re compressing, the upper. The extra. The dearer the supplies, the dearer the tolerances, the dearer the machining. And so hydrogen, as a result of it’s such a diffuse fuel and requires such excessive pressures, really has the most costly compressors round for 700 atmospheres of strain. These items are non trivial equipment.

I did an evaluation of California’s hydrogen refueling stations, and so they have been seeing vital failures, 50% of which have been associated particularly to the compressors. Failing gaskets go on compressors for hydrogen on a regular basis and have to get replaced. They’re not low-cost. They’re one of the crucial costly parts on this course of. They’re up there by way of expense with the very costly storage mechanisms, with the very costly storage mechanism we’re taking a look at right here. So this nonetheless isn’t very dense. A Toyota Mirai has nearly 5 kilograms of hydrogen, the power equal of about 5 gallons of gasoline in a tank, at 700 atmospheres. It’s fairly a outstanding testimony to security engineering that none of them have exploded like a kinetic bomb. So it’s fairly fascinating. So individuals have been searching for different alternate options. Liquid natural hydrogen carriers have been found and been round for a very long time.

They lock hydrogen into one thing that’s extra dense, a liquid, and it’s dearer, and it’s gradual to get in, it’s gradual to get out, and it’s extra energetic necessities. Equally, liquid hydrogen, chilling it right down to about 20 levels above absolute zero, is viable and we do it, nevertheless it’s additionally dearer. It creates higher density. However then you could have one thing which is 290 levels beneath what we think about a cushty temperature. Nicely, though I’m talking to an viewers in New Delhi the place 30 levels Celsius is taken into account a cushty temperature. So it’s 300 levels beneath what you think about a cushty temperature, and it boils off, and it’s extremely problematic. Then we get to metallic hydride storage, the place it locks it right into a metallic substrate, and that’s much more costly and extra problematic by way of getting the hydrogen out and in.

Every of those will increase the quantity of power required to do that. For instance, liquid hydrogen, about 30% of the power that’s saved as liquid hydrogen is. Is required to show hydrogen into liquid hydrogen. So that is a part of the issue. Each time we open up a part of the issue of hydrogen, it simply will get increasingly more costly to unravel the issues. And there’s increasingly more issues. There are answers, however they’re not low-cost options. And expense issues as a result of hydrogen is competing with different alternate options. It’s competing with direct grid tied electrification. And, you understand, for these, I’m positive all the individuals on this name know that India is on monitor to have its heavy freight rail totally electrified with overhead wires. This yr, Reji talked about rail. Nicely, guess what? We’ve been electrifying rail straight for over 100 years. That is trivial know-how.

We all know the way to do it. We all know the way to ship the power that manner. Hydrogen doesn’t have a play there, and but individuals make the assertion. Equally for automobiles, batteries, or warmth pumps, et cetera, et cetera. And so they’re all less expensive. All these approaches which might be alternate options to hydrogen are less expensive and extra dependable than utilizing hydrogen.

So there’s transferring it round. Shifting your hydrogen round as a result of it’s as soon as once more so diffuse is one other place the place it’s costly. The one low-cost solution to transfer hydrogen round is to ship the feedstocks, water, and electrical energy, within the case of inexperienced hydrogen, pure fuel, within the case of unabated grey hydrogen, to the place the hydrogen is required. And to be clear, 85% of all hydrogen consumed globally right this moment, about 100 to 120 million tons we manufacture, 85% is manufactured on the level the place it’s used.

And that’s as a result of transferring it round is admittedly costly. The following most cost-effective manner is hydrogen pipelines, and that is nonetheless cheaper, by the way in which. I’ll simply say that making hydrogen the place it’s used, we use none of it for power right this moment as a result of alternate options, together with simply utilizing electrical energy straight, are nonetheless cheaper on a per. You recognize, choose your. Decide your unit of power on a per BtU, on a per MMBTU, on a per megajoule, per kilowatt hour. It’s at all times cheaper to make use of the pure fuel or the electrical energy straight slightly than make hydrogen after which use the hydrogen for power, you understand, that’s why, you understand, the mass majority of hydrogen automobiles on the planet right this moment are utilizing grey hydrogen, and it’s costing them anyplace from $15 to $35 per kilogram to refill. It’s simply not low-cost. However hydrogen pipelines exist.

There are a few of them in Germany, within the industrial space, the place they go from a steam reformation facility to a plant, and there’s some in the USA the place they go from steam reformation vegetation to refineries. However these hydrogen pipelines in Germany carrying fossil hydrogen, that’s unabated, they’re charging $6 to $8 US per kilo for that. And that’s the most cost effective hydrogen that may exist. The pipelines aren’t very lengthy. They’re industrial scale pipelines carrying industrial scale volumes of hydrogen, and but it’s nonetheless $6 to $8 per kilogram for that hydrogen. After which we get into different increasingly more costly methods to maneuver hydrogen round. Hydrogen tube vans, principally carrying pressurized gaseous hydrogen. Nicely, you want about 14 of them to hold as a lot as a diesel gasoline tube truck, and that’s simply not a possible or lifelike solution to ship hydrogen.

Liquid hydrogen tankers, liquefying hydrogen and placing it in tanks that drive on roads with faculty buses, is definitely being critically proposed. And to be clear, we do it, however we do it in very particular circumstances the place we’d like liquid hydrogen as the one factor that may work. And really specifically skilled individuals ship that at excessive price. Then there’s the proposal of the liquid hydrogen provider, liquid natural hydrogen provider tankers, whether or not that’s, you understand, ammonia or one thing else, you understand, another provider. And I simply hold stepping on the energetic amount of these items. It simply will get very costly.

I labored out that if we shipped ammonia, for instance, it could be 9 occasions as costly per unit of power for Japan because the coal it’s supposed to exchange. That’s with dust low-cost hydrogen. And each good thing about the doubt is simply costly to ship hydrogen. So we don’t do it right this moment, and we’re not going to do a lot of it tomorrow. Then there’s hydrogen tanker ships, the place individuals suggest to liquefy hydrogen and put it in tankers, and someone’s demonstrated that it’s simply extremely costly. I labored out that it could be 5 occasions as costly for delivery as liquid pure fuel in a single case. So that is sort of the issue. It’s less expensive to ship electrical energy to locations than it’s to ship hydrogen to locations. And the wires principally exist already the place we really want power, we have to beef them up. We have to beef up the transformers and converters, however that’s simply the character of the beast.

Then there’s security and the way we really use hydrogen. You don’t hear many tales, though some, about hydrogen failures.

One of many huge causes is that principally we make hydrogen the place it’s utilized in industrial settings, the place individuals know the way to use hydrogen safely, and so they have hydrogen sensors, and so they have all kinds of security procedures. However even there, I feel it was Linde, one of many huge hydrogen suppliers in Europe, not too long ago had a bit of little bit of a security drawback. You may need heard about it just because there’s a number of information nowadays about individuals not with the ability to get hydrogen. So hydrogen fleets being suspended, like hydrogen trains in Germany are unable to run as a result of they will’t get hydrogen. Hydrogen vans and hydrogen faculty buses and hydrogen automobiles are begging for hydrogen as a result of there’s no hydrogen. And why?

Nicely, as a result of a tanker of gaseous hydrogen in a Linde plant that was being crammed with hydrogen for supply to a fueling station, had what’s known as a deflagration occasion, which is a subsonic explosion. Principally, it caught hearth and exploded, which is an issue with hydrogen, extra so than with diesel or gasoline. And so they had some harm that blew out lots of home windows inside a major radius and broken among the facility. So that they needed to shut it down and so they needed to recall all of the tube tankers security checks. And in order we get from right here, secure up right here, secure, making hydrogen the place it’s used unsafe, just about the whole lot else is questionable, viable versus unviable by way of utilizing hydrogen as an power provider. So liquid hydrogen, liquid hydrogen, truck refueling.

You recognize, Daimler is exploring this with Linde in Europe, and it’s only a foolish thought. Shifting liquid hydrogen round in vans to place into different vans, to drive round on highways to hold Kleenex is simply not a smart thought. Once we can simply use electrical energy and batteries, that’s vastly safer and far much less more likely to explode. I simply learn an evaluation of 1 proposal for a liquid hydrogen for a hydrogen refueling station in Europe, the place they superimposed the security setbacks for people lives not being misplaced and vital infrastructure harm not occurring as two radiuses round this factor, and seemed on the variety of residences and buildings round that. And but this proposed hydrogen refueling station security wasn’t even a requirement of the remit. Hydrogen is a extremely explosive fuel. We use it industrially, in giant portions, the place now we have particular security measures in place.

And like many harmful substances, we all know how to try this. We all know how to try this in industrial settings with extremely skilled individuals, not in fuel stations and never round different individuals. We don’t put large quantities of ammonia beside a faculty. We shouldn’t put large quantities of hydrogen beside a faculty both.

Hydrogen for constructing warmth. That’s only a weird idea. I simply spent 90 minutes speaking with one of many world’s specialists on pure fuel in houses, and pure fuel leaks on a regular basis. He. He’s the chair of the World Carbon Undertaking, which yearly produces the emissions and budgets for all greenhouse gases, their carbon funds, their methane funds, and now they’ve a hydrogen funds.

And a part of his analysis traditionally has been to measure pure fuel home equipment in residences to see how a lot methane is being emitted, but in addition what number of different pollution are being emitted. Now, the methane leakage is already vital. Methane slippage from issues that burn methane, you understand, unburnt methane popping out of issues that are theoretically burning it, is kind of excessive, however methane really doesn’t explode that simply. It solely explodes simply sufficient that 4000 buildings a yr are considerably broken or destroyed in pure fuel fires and explosions in the USA. Now, 4000 in opposition to a constructing inventory for a rustic of 330,000,000 individuals, perhaps that doesn’t sound like a lot, however hydrogen, per the most effective evaluation accessible with security measures, could be 4 occasions as more likely to have explosions and unsafe circumstances as methane as a result of the molecule is smaller. You recognize, our infrastructure that’s delivering fuel to houses shouldn’t be designed for tinier molecules than methane. And hydrogen is simply the Houdini of molecules. It likes to get out of locations. It likes to embrittle stuff.

Equally, hydrogen security, placing 20 diploma Kelvin hydrogen within the fuselage, the place it could be required due to the character of aerodynamic balancing contained in the fuselage with human beings, is only a recipe for a catastrophe. It’s simply very tough to sq. the security of human passengers with liquid hydrogen as a gasoline. And but individuals are critically reporting it. It’s a type of circumstances the place it’s uncertifiable and certification and aviation is essential. So whereas there’s lots of dialogue about it it’s simply not going to occur.

And ammonia as a delivery gasoline. That’s a recipe for catastrophe as properly. Ammonia, which is one nitrogen, three hydrogen, burns cleanly, which is to say it burns with out emitting greenhouse gases, however with a number of nitrous oxides. Ammonia, because it sits, is poisonous to people. And when it mixes with water, which ships are round, it turns right into a extremely corrosive substance, which, if we breathe, will destroy our lungs. After which after that, it turns into a distinct substance, which is simply dangerous for human well being and for wildlife well being. So ammonia as a delivery gasoline, as a hydrogen power provider, is a non starter. It’s a ship that received’t float. And it’s simply outstanding to see the quantity of consideration that it will get. So security is a priority and it provides expense.

We are able to do any of these items with an affordable diploma of security and limitless lack of human life. However it prices an terrible lot greater than alternate options to attain security with these applied sciences, which provides to the dearth of viability, then, for floor transportation, costly, cheaper, inefficient, environment friendly.

Let’s simply take a look at the alternate options right here up right here. Hydrogen gasoline for trucking. Nicely, hydrogen gasoline for trucking. As soon as once more, we’re seeing $15 to $35. That’s for grey hydrogen delivered to vans.

The refueling stations in California are an abject lesson. They’ve 55 refueling stations for public automobiles. And people refueling stations as of 2021. I did the evaluation of their highest use, most mature interval that was public document, which was six months in 2021, after 5 to 6 years of operation. And I discovered that the hydrogen refueling stations have been out of service for 2000 extra hours after they have been pumping hydrogen.

Hydrogen refueling stations fail ceaselessly as a result of it’s exhausting to retailer and pressurize hydrogen. As soon as once more, these compressors go frequently. This provides to the associated fee. The price of delivering hydrogen to refueling stations is a really vital addition to the associated fee. Farming of power did a research and mentioned the price of simply delivering hydrogen by tube truck to a refueling station would add $8 to $10 to the price of the hydrogen. So it doesn’t matter what it prices to make the hydrogen, it doesn’t matter what it prices to pump the hydrogen, and to take care of the price of the low reliability of refueling stations. It’s $8 to $10 per kilogram simply to get the hydrogen to the refueling station. It’s as soon as once more non viable.

Hydrogen buses have related issues. I did an evaluation of California’s bus fleet as a result of they’ve been experimenting with this. There are pockets of irrationality round hydrogen. Their hydrogen buses are 50% much less dependable than their diesel buses and twice as unreliable as their battery electrical buses. Diesel buses will likely be out of service for x hours. A hydrogen bus will likely be out of service for x hours occasions 1.5. So one and a half occasions the hours out of service as a result of they’re simply not working. Gas cells are finicky issues. A gasoline cell requires pure hydrogen at a particular time, you understand, fairly temperature, with no pollution like water or different substances. It requires pure air. It requires air that’s bone dry and freed from pollution.

Reaching that in a bus or a truck that drives by way of metropolis streets with all of the particulate matter and all the air air pollution in cities, it has to filter that right down to hospital grade working theater air high quality and temperature to ensure that the gasoline cell to not degrade and fail quickly. Buses in Spain that have been delivered, properly, by accident, some coolant from one other a part of the drivetrain bought into the gasoline cells and destroyed the gasoline cells fully. And the buses have by no means moved. So there’s 5 buses, I overlook the town in Spain, it’s not Barcelona, it’s one of many different ones, however they bought buses and so they’re simply sitting there. They’re bricks. This can be a drawback with hydrogen. It’s simply exhausting to make issues work. We are able to do it, however they’re much less dependable than alternate options. And reliability provides cash.

Hydrogen powered trains, similar factor. I’ve talked about trains, principally. Overhead wires, batteries for the bits that may’t be finished. It simply is smart. India is up to now forward of the remainder of the world, even forward of China on electrifying trains, that I received’t speak about it.

And naturally, down right here now we have the alternate options. Nicely, can now we have battery energy vans? Sure, and we do. Can now we have battery electrical buses? Sure, and we do. Can now we have electrical trains? Sure. And so they’re environment friendly and cheaper. And so, you understand, as soon as once more, it’s a contest. Hydrogen shouldn’t be the one solution to do most issues, and it’s actually not the one solution to do issues in power. And each time we ask the query, now we have to say, what are the alternate options? Are they economically advantageous? And the reply is at all times sure.

Then there’s maritime delivery, one other purported space. So costly, cheaper, viable, unviable. Again to ammonia powered delivery. I’ve talked about this. It’s nuts. Then there’s liquid hydrogen powered delivery. I’ll say this. I spend lots of time wanting on the maritime trade. I spend lots of time speaking to maritime professionals about repowering stuff. I’ve been flown to Glasgow to debate maritime decarbonization. I’ve spoken to individuals on the Maersk McKinney Institute for Maritime Decarbonization. Individuals from the Wallenius group simply interviewed me for what must be finished round maritime delivery. And I’ve bought a projection of maritime delivery decarbonization by way of 2100. I’m removed from knowledgeable, however I’m pretty deep on this topic. And the factor I’ll say is a bunch of assume tanks are speaking about liquid hydrogen and the maritime trade is ignoring liquid hydrogen. Yeah, they’re not silly.

They take a look at it and go, wait, you need us to do what with that stuff? And also you need us to energy ships with that? That’s simply foolish, man. Like perhaps Maersk does it and we discover out that it’s low-cost. However till then, please go away. No one is utilizing liquid hydrogen to energy ships. And but assume tanks hold proposing it.

Methanol as a delivery gasoline. Methanol is principally wooden alcohol. It’s a type of alcohols that should you drink it, you go blind and die. So don’t try this. And it’s a reasonably frequent industrial substance right this moment and a local weather change drawback right this moment. And it does burn modified ship engines like an alcohol would. It’s really okay, nevertheless it’s solely about 45% the power density of maritime variable sulfur gasoline oil. It’s dearer, so it’s competing with alternate options. And the alternate options embrace battery powered delivery.

Proper now there are a few 700 unit container ships crusing the Yangtze on thousand kilometer routes which might be operating on batteries. They’re batteries in containers which might be winched out of the ship, placed on shore to be charged, plugged in, identical to fridge automobiles. Fridge containers and charged fridge charged battery containers are winched onto the ship and plugged in simply the identical manner fridge containers. Reefers are right this moment. And batteries are slowly taking on the underside finish of delivery. And so they’re going to all inland delivery, most quick sea delivery. My projection is that battery hybrid delivery with biodiesel will take over the complete area for batteries. We’ll run the ships in ports and nationwide waters to attenuate air air pollution and noise air pollution for all of the residents and the marine life close to shore and crossing oceans. They’ll burn biofuels.

And the biofuel, I anticipate, will likely be biodiesel. There’s arguments which might be affordable to recommend that we’ll find yourself with methanol, biomethanol as a delivery gasoline, however we actually received’t find yourself with methanol synthesized from inexperienced ammonia. Biomethanol is less expensive than methanol synthesized from inexperienced ammonia. So we’re not going to finish up utilizing synthesized methanol or any synthesized gasoline. It simply doesn’t make any sense as a result of it’s dearer and no one’s going to pay extra for one thing which doesn’t do extra. And artificial methanol doesn’t do greater than biologically sourced methanol.

So aviation, costly, cheaper, certifiable, uncertifiable. Now, certifiable doesn’t imply they’re loopy. It doesn’t imply we’re placing them into an asylum to help them to get well their psychological well being, to seek out the appropriate temper stabilizers and prescription drugs and discuss remedy to help them to reintegrate with society.

It implies that operators can fly a licensed machine with human beings within it as a business service, or they will fly machines with packages inside them as a business service over locations the place there are individuals. So the whole lot above tiny plane needs to be licensed. Need to be licensed by nationwide aviation boards. Most aviation boards globally respect and undertake a certification. If the FAA does it or EASA does it, then many simply respect and undertake these and say the nationwide certification boards undertake these. I’d say if there are any aviation individuals on board from India related to India’s equal of the FAA, it’s best to actually rethink grandfathering FAA licensed planes as a result of the FAA was captured by Boeing, and it’s only a actual drawback space proper now in aviation. However certification is required, and it’s costly.

It’s an n-times-n course of that claims it’s a must to manufacture, design planes in a sure manner, manufacture planes in a manner that’s secure, after which take a look at all of the failure circumstances in an n-times-n manner in flight assessments to show {that a} aircraft received’t fall over the sky and kill individuals. The Boeing Max disasters that killed tons of of individuals have been a failure of certification as a result of Boeing captured the FAA through the years. However as we undergo these, battery powered aviation is simple. We all know the failure circumstances of batteries and batteries to electrical motors have nearly no transferring elements. An n-times-n certification course of for a quite simple plane, like a battery, electrical one is less expensive than a extra complicated one.

Biofuelled aviation simply replaces kerosene that’s used right this moment with biologically sourced kerosene that’s really very easy to certify as properly, as a result of it’s only a frequent pathway, the identical molecules, completely different sources, and each main, producer, civil aviation plane, is certifying their planes on certifiable aviation, unsustainable aviation gasoline that come from biofuels right this moment. We identical to, take a look at the frequent carriers. They’re all doing it. We’re bunkering, you understand, thousands and thousands of tons of biofuel, sustainable aviation fuels right this moment.

Now, up right here, efuels. That is artificial kerosene produced from inexperienced hydrogen after which mixed into making the attributes of kerosene. Kerosene being a sort of a classifier of attributes, not an actual particular chemical formulation. And you are able to do that. It’s simply actually costly. It’s simple to certify as a result of it’s actual, it’s nearly an identical to the jet gasoline that’s used right this moment. It’s simply as certifiable as biofuel powered aviation.

However it’s simply going to be actually costly. Biofuels are two to 3 occasions as costly as present fossil fuels. Usually, e fuels are 4 to 6 occasions as costly. And if a provider has the choice between, if it’s pressured to pay two to 3 occasions, that’s one factor, however they’re not going to pay 4 to 6 occasions if they’ve a two to 3 occasions price various. So let me recover from into stuff that simply doesn’t make any sense. Hydrogen fuel and liquid hydrogen. The failure circumstances are so excessive and the design transformations for aviation are so excessive to keep away from failure circumstances attributable to these issues, simply make it a non viable to certify.

I’ll say that the certification individuals should be having a subject day, as a result of usually they’re over right here in rather well trodden pathways, they’re filling in checklists which have been crammed in tons of and hundreds of occasions earlier than. Over right here, every single day they discover a new manner for an airplane to go increase or fall into the sky and kill lots of people, and so they need to provide you with assessments to validate that it received’t happen. That’s an thrilling factor for the certifiers to do, which is why the certification companies are spending a lot time on it. However that doesn’t imply it’s going to result in certification for plane. So you may get actually costly, uncertifiable plane, or you may get plane that look lots like those right this moment, and battery electrical ones, and get there and resolve the local weather drawback.

So then there’s warmth. I’ll simply say that burning hydrogen to make warmth works. No one does it right this moment as a result of it’s actually costly. There’s some stuff it’s a must to change that traits of the flame are completely different. You must change a bunch of stuff. That’s all simply pretty minor engineering, nevertheless it’s costly. In the meantime, individuals say, what about excessive temperature warmth? Nicely, electrical plasmas, now we have the temperature of the solar below our management with commoditized know-how we will ship right this moment and combine into warmth. Electrical arc heating, we already use that for metal manufacturing. EMF heating, resistance heating, as much as 600, 800 levels Celsius. I talked to the previous chief technical officer of Kanthal, now the EVP for international enterprise improvement, a few years in the past. Yeah, their product is only a resistance heating factor that goes to 600 to 800 levels.

Thermal storage, now infrared heating. We have now district heating and cooling. We have now warmth pumps. Each single vary of heating could be finished with electrical energy. It is probably not trivial or cheap to alter one thing which is designed for fossil fuels to run on electrical energy, however all new amenities needs to be designed from the bottom as much as run solely on electrical energy. Matter of reality, after I converse to Paul Martin, all of them are. It’s solely when the enterprise case is dedicated that they add fuel the place it’s essential to make the enterprise case. And in order we transfer ahead right into a decarbonized world and carbon pricing applies to fossil fuels, these applied sciences are all there. They’re all business right this moment. They’re all utterly dependable, commodified issues. We’re simply not utilizing them as a result of burning fossil fuels and utilizing the ambiance as an open sewer is cheaper. Hydrogen doesn’t have a play right here. It’s simply at all times going to be dearer and lots tougher and lots much less secure than simply utilizing electrical alternate options.

So then grid storage, similar drawback, hydrogen grid storage, it’s “I’ve a hydrogen molecule. What else can I do with it?” It’s like having a Swiss military knife. Oh, what does this little blade do? Oh, it’s an extended period power storage. Yeah, hydrogen for lengthy period power storage. Nicely, no, for shorter period storage, now we have cell primarily based battery grid storage. Big, large market nowadays. Very profitable. We have now redox move applied sciences, that are commercializing right this moment. I sat on the advisory board of 1. We have now pumped hydro, which is rising radically.

Within the grid storage dialogue, I identified how huge the useful resource India was beneficial to the ISGF, that they reopen the research into grid storage as a result of off river, closed loop grids, pumped hydro grid storage is very easy to construct and it’s match for objective. Then now we have biomethane. We had this huge drawback. A part of the rationale I used to be talking to the pinnacle of the worldwide carbon venture, Rob Jackson, this week was as a result of we’re emitting large quantities of excessive international warming potential methane right this moment from our agricultural meals waste stream processes. Rice farming, for instance, India, but in addition meals waste. We throw away a full third of the meals we manufacture yearly that results in landfills or middens, the place it’s piled, decomposes anaerobically and creates methane. So our land administration processes are produced, for instance, beef cattle and ruminants, with their belching of methane from their digestive processes.

Nicely, the methane from that supply is twice as huge because the methane emissions from the fossil gasoline trade, which have been climbing radically. We have now to attenuate our biomethane as a result of it’s an enormous international warming drawback. And my principle is we simply seize it at level sources like dairy barns and landfills and different stuff, and we fill our strategic pure fuel reserves with biomethane as an alternative. After which after we want that strategic reserve of fuel, of power, we simply burn biomethane. I feel that makes much more sense than manufacturing hydrogen. But when hydrogen finally ends up being the foolish factor, if individuals begin manufacturing salt caverns and creating, you understand, coping with all that, it’s the. It’s not probably the most urgent drawback.

We have now applied sciences for the whole lot, besides we’ve bought commercialized, generally used, very dependable applied sciences for the whole lot besides strategic power shops for lengthy regional outages of wind and photo voltaic.

This all turns into my hydrogen demand projection by way of 2100. You’ll discover that in contrast to each different hydrogen demand projection you’ve ever seen, it goes down as a result of inexperienced hydrogen is much more costly than unabated grey hydrogen. Blue hydrogen is double the price of unabated present hydrogen. That implies that because the feedstock price goes up for industrial processes, the place we use it, our expectation of utilizing it, individuals will discover alternate options. There are alternate options to hydrogen in some circumstances. In different circumstances, there aren’t any alternate options. But when the associated fee goes up, individuals will say, properly, how else can I obtain the identical outcomes? Oh, properly, let’s try this.

However much more, take a look at this huge chunk right here, these two classes. The most important shoppers of hydrogen right this moment are oil refineries. They use it to strip impurities out of hydrogen, like sulfur. And so they additionally use it to crack hydrogen into, or crack crude oil into lighter and heavier parts. The heavier and the upper sulfur, the crude, which is to say Alberta oil sands crude, the extra hydrogen it’s a must to use. For mild, candy crude, it’s a must to use a kilogram or a kilogram and a half per barrel of oil, for Alberta’s product it’s a must to use seven or 8 kilograms per barrel of oil. We’re going to cease extracting and refining lots of our oil. We’re going to get right down to solely extracting oil for petrochemicals. And the petrochemicals, the oil we’re going to extract is usually going to be lighter, low sulfur, as a result of now we have a number of oil.

So we’re not going to be consuming practically as a lot hydrogen in oil refineries. And that’s going to occur pretty shortly. The heaviest, lowest high quality crudes, like Venezuela’s and Alberta’s, will likely be first off the market. In order that’s going to plummet. That is fertilizer, the subsequent largest demand space. And now we have alternate options for lots of fertilizer. Low tillage agriculture requires much less fertilizer. Drone primarily based crop spraying of fertilizers requires lots much less fertilizer. Agrigenetics is displacing fertilizer additions with genetically modified microbes, which exist already within the soil, which already repair nitrogen within the soil for vegetation. However they’ve a nitrogen sensor. They simply flip off the nitrogen sensor, and it simply retains making extra nitrogen on the roots of vegetation. It’s very environment friendly.

Final time I spoke to Karsten Temme, the PhD geneticist who heads Pivot Bio, they have been on the level the place they have been seeing one million acres of corn below administration in the USA, and so they’re lowering fertilizer necessities by 25%. Their purpose is 100% throughout rice, corn, and grain by 2030, stretch goal, however a extremely good sound chunk. So we’re going to be pulling all these levers, as a result of fertilizer goes to get dearer as we decarbonize fertilizer, an enormous local weather drawback right this moment as a result of it’s produced from pure fuel. Pure fuel turns into hydrogen. We put the hydrogen into the Haber Bosch course of to mix with air from the ambiance to make ammonia to make fertilizer. We’re going to scale back that. So vital declining calls for within the largest supply demand areas for hydrogen.

Metal is a possible space. I’ve at present bought it there. Making hydrogen, making new metal with hydrogen. Nicely, the hydrogen replaces coal in lowering the iron ore, which de rusts it principally into iron. That’s all it does. And there’s a requirement level there. However now we have alternate options there which might be direct electrification, Boston Metals and Fortescue utilizing molten oxide electrolysis obtain the identical outcomes with no hydrogen step. And principally anyplace the place they cannot use hydrogen, as now we have a substitute for hydrogen, we’re most likely going to make use of it. It needs to be cheaper. And so proper now I’ve elevated demand for hydrogen for metal making in my projection, however that’s in danger. Ultimately sport I feel we’re solely going to have 80 million tons of hydrogen that we use in our financial system, versus the below 120 million tons that we use right this moment.

We nonetheless have to scrub it up. It’s nonetheless an enormous local weather drawback space. We nonetheless want all of the work on electrolysis for this market of pricy hydrogen.

That’s it. Let’s discuss. Any questions, Reji?

RK: I’d request you to present the most recent standing of the introduced inexperienced hydrogen initiatives and patrons, the dedicated patrons and what timber, what share of complete initiatives that are financially near initiatives that are below some stage of improvement or building, and who’ve signed as much as purchase the inexperienced hydrogen. At what value? What statistics do you could have?

MB: So a yr in the past, Boston Consulting Group revealed with Oxford World Initiatives a sort of a white paper on the way to make inexperienced hydrogen initiatives as low danger as attainable. Not low danger, simply decrease danger. And so they included a bunch of statistics, about 1300 initiatives that Boston Consulting Group had of their database. These 1300 initiatives, I feel it was solely 0.7% by tonnage really reached ultimate funding choice and operation. It was solely 5% by variety of bulletins, however solely 0.7% by tonnages really reached ultimate funding choice. So we don’t have a scenario the place they’re getting by way of, as a result of as they undergo ultimate funding choice, due diligence, they really need to put actual numbers into spreadsheets, not imaginary consensus numbers about low-cost hydrogen.

They really have to truly price stuff. After which after they try this, they discover out that hydrogen is dear, which we’ve recognized for a very long time. I simply assisted Professor Joe Romm, who’s working with Michael Mann at College of Pennsylvania with the twentieth version of his e book, The Hype About Hydrogen. Joe Romm did his work 25 years in the past and mentioned, why would we be contemplating this? It’s at all times going to be costly. Bruce McCabe, one other PhD out of Australia, did this work 25 years in the past and mentioned, that is actually costly. As I mentioned, I’m a gradual scholar. I’ve solely finished the maths on this up to now decade, taking a look at finished techno financial workups on hydrogen options for the previous ten years. And each time I do it, hydrogen comes out actually costly.

The worth level is attention-grabbing. Boston Consulting Group additionally revealed one thing saying, the consensus of €3 per kilogram inexperienced hydrogen in Europe by 2030 is popping out to not be appropriate. It would really be €5 to €8 per kilogram. And I agree it’ll be €6 to €8 to fabricate hydrogen. However that’s not delivering it, that’s simply making it. And so, as soon as once more, each time now we have to retailer it, each time now we have to move it, each time now we have to pump it, the associated fee goes up and up. Security stuff provides prices. So after we hear the associated fee level for hydrogen, it’s a must to ask, is it, what’s the associated fee delivered? And the most effective price delivered for client functions, for hydrogen, is what’s being paid at fuel pumps all over the world, which is $15 to $35 per kilogram. And that’s for grey hydrogen.

It’s not going to get cheaper than that common value level. For all of the offers that have been really struck final yr, to Reji’s level, the common value level was €9.35 euro cents per kilogram. And that, as soon as once more, simply to fabricate it.

Okay, now we have one other query. Please clarify why hydrogen use serves fossil pursuits. It’s the title of the presentation, so I’m glad you requested. Michael Liebreich says it greatest. The fossil gasoline trade can’t lose by selling hydrogen for power, both. Hydrogen for power turns into a serious a part of our power combine, and we will’t make sufficient inexperienced hydrogen in any respect, as a result of it could require vastly extra renewables than now we have right this moment, which might require blue hydrogen, then the fossil gasoline reserves that the fossil gasoline trade has is the one supply of all that hydrogen.

And with a view to try this in a considerably low carbon manner, considerably probably not, they’d need to do carbon seize and the governments must pay them so as to add carbon seize to their hydrogen manufacture. So that they win that manner and their hydrocarbon reserves are good and governments and taxpayers give them a number of cash. Or the opposite manner they win is that they delay actual local weather motion with electrification by one other decade and so they hold pumping their oil, coal and fuel for an additional decade with out actual motion. It’s an apparent technique for them. As you take a look at the funding for hydrogen advocacy organizations, what you discover is the fossil gasoline trade is throughout this area. They’re selling hydrogen far past its stage of capability. Do now we have different questions? I do know Puranima Gupta has had their hand up. I’m unsure in the event that they’ve put a query into chat.

What about mixing hydrogen in with pure fuel and present pipelines? This is without doubt one of the nice hopes of the trade. We’re going to place methane, we’re going to place pure fuel into present pure fuel pipelines after which we’re going to scale back the CO2 output of burning pure fuel. And it’s going to be nice. Nicely, it’s not. The utmost you may put into pipelines is about 20%, however hydrogen is lots much less dense than pure fuel, so you find yourself with much less power at extra price. You solely get a couple of 7% carbon emissions discount from the utmost combination of pure fuel with hydrogen. In order that’s drawback one. Drawback two, pure fuel already leaks throughout the distribution system. And the older the distribution system is, the extra it leaks.

Amusingly, I used to be speaking with, as soon as once more, the gentleman who chairs the World Carbon Undertaking. And he spent fairly a little bit of time in automobiles driving round Boston, Manhattan and Washington with methane sensors searching for leaks. What they discovered is the older elements of the town that have been probably the most gentrified with probably the most wealthy individuals had the very best leaks. So it was fairly counterintuitive that it wasn’t an inequitable scenario because it usually was. It simply leaks lots. Now, why I deliver this up is methane leaks lots lower than hydrogen. So if you put hydrogen with pure fuel in a pipeline, any leaks that exist are going to disproportionately leak the hydrogen. And who pays for all of the leaking pure fuel right this moment? Nicely, shoppers do. It’s undelivered fuel. It’s a part of the expense that utility passes on.

So all that costly hydrogen that goes in with the pure fuel will likely be far more costly, it’ll leak much more and also you’ll pay much more. So it’s simply principally a lifeless finish. It’s fairly fascinating. So present metal pipelines, can we use the prevailing metal pipeline community for hydrogen transportation or do we’d like some modifications usually? Sure, you want modifications. You are able to do these modifications. The factor with hydrogen is as a result of it needs to be larger strain to ship much less quantity, as a result of as soon as once more, it’s lots much less dense as a fuel. You must pressurize it lots. And pressurizing causes the pipes to flex. Because the pipes flex, now we have micro fractures within the weld joints of the pipes.

Hydrogen does what methane doesn’t, which is it will get into these weld joints and it bonds with the metals and it embrittles them. And so now we have to truly scale back our pressurization. We are able to solely get a couple of third of the power by way of the identical pipeline with security. Now we will get a bit extra by coating the insides. We have now to coat the insides of all of the pipelines with reasonably costly inside coatings. We have now to run pigs down them, spray them, take a look at them, and that’s simply to get to the purpose the place we will ship a 3rd of the power so we will do it. However as soon as once more, far more costly than piping pure fuel, and it requires modifications. And the subsequent bit is all these compressors which might be used on the pure fuel pipelines aren’t match for objective for a hydrogen pipeline.

They as soon as once more want larger strain compressors with higher suits. In any other case they’ll leak hydrogen like sieves. So all of the compressors on the pure fuel pipeline have to get replaced after which all of the electronics. Methane doesn’t assault electronics. Hydrogen is admittedly reactive. It assaults electronics. You really need to get a distinct licensed set of sensors and electronics in your hydrogen pipeline than exist on the methane pipeline. So it’s not a slam dunk. You may’t simply say, I’ve bought a pipe, I’ve bought pumps. I’ll simply put hydrogen as an alternative of pure fuel. You might have change all of your compressors. You must improve all of your electronics. You must coat the within of the pipeline. And guess what? That every one provides price to ship much less power. It’s not a slam dunk. Some other questions?

RK: Madam Puranima Gupta was asking, she continues to be not clear how hydrogen shouldn’t be good to decarbonize? It’s good to decarbonize, supplied you may make it cheaper to different applied sciences and in addition the difficulties about storing it and transporting it and total power. Inefficient resolution is what Michael defined within the earlier slide. So the webinar recording will likely be accessible in simply two days to all of the individuals who registered. Thanks very a lot, Michael. Good day to you.

MB: Nicely, I’ll add one level to that remark. It’s completely essential to decarbonize all of the hydrogen that we at present use and can proceed to make use of for the subsequent a long time as industrial feedstocks. Proper now, that’s a local weather drawback now we have to unravel. Inexperienced hydrogen is the reply to it, and that implies that now we have to try this. However that’s the local weather, that’s the decarbonization resolution now we have to work on for hydrogen, which is lowering it from an issue the scale of all aviation globally right down to one thing that’s not the scale of all aviation globally. So decarbonization and hydrogen don’t consider it as an answer set. Consider it as an issue space that now we have to unravel. So that may be the factor. Again to you, Reji.

RK: Thanks. Good day. Good night. Good night time to all of the contributors from India Asia area. Good night time.