The Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company (IAEA) mentioned era capability of nuclear energy worldwide is predicted to rise greater than the group beforehand anticipated, to as a lot as 950 GW of era by 2050. The IAEA in a report printed Sept. 16 revised its annual projection for a fourth straight 12 months, saying world nuclear capability might leap by 2.5 occasions its present capability by mid-century.
The company mentioned small modular reactors (SMRs) would make a “vital contribution” to larger nuclear era. The group printed its projections Monday in “Vitality, Electrical energy and Nuclear Energy Estimates for the Interval as much as 2050“. The IAEA, which has printed the report for greater than 40 years, mentioned its information “aligns with the worldwide consensus on the necessity to speed up the deployment of nuclear vitality.”
“Following the success of COP28 in Dubai and the first-ever Nuclear Vitality Summit in Brussels [Belgium], the worldwide momentum behind nuclear vitality continues at tempo,” mentioned IAEA Director Common Rafael Mariano Grossi on Monday. “The brand new IAEA projections replicate growing acknowledgement of nuclear energy as a clear and safe vitality provide, in addition to growing curiosity in SMRs to focus on each electrical and non-electric purposes to satisfy local weather objectives and foster sustainable growth.” Grossi introduced the company’s new projections in his opening assertion on the 68th IAEA Common Convention in Vienna, Austria, which runs at present via Sept. 20.
The United Nations Local weather Change Convention, often known as COP28, final 12 months for the primary time included nuclear energy within the World Stocktake, a listing of measures being taken to help deployment of low-emission applied sciences to assist obtain decarbonization.
371.5 GW in Operation
The IAEA report mentioned that at year-end 2023, 413 nuclear energy reactors had been operational worldwide, with mixed era capability of 371.5 GW. Within the high-case state of affairs of the brand new IAEA outlook, nuclear electrical producing capability is projected to extend to 950 GW by 2050. The group mentioned that even in its low-case projection, world capability in 2050 would attain 514 GW, about 40% greater than at present. The company mentioned SMRs “account for about one-quarter of the capability added within the excessive case and for six% within the low-case state of affairs.”
The IAEA’s estimates think about a number of components, together with all working reactors, potential lifetime extensions, doable energy uprates, deliberate shutdowns, and anticipated building initiatives within the subsequent few many years. The group famous that some 30 nations that don’t at present have nuclear energy vegetation “are both contemplating or shifting ahead with plans to introduce nuclear energy into their vitality combine.” The group additionally famous that a number of nations “are increasing and lengthening the lifetimes of current nuclear energy vegetation.”
The report notes that extending the lifecycle of current nuclear reactors is “Some of the cost-effective sources of low-emission electrical energy,” mentioned the company in its high-case state of affairs assumes “that the working lifetimes of most nuclear energy reactors scheduled for retirement can be prolonged.”
China is main the world in building of latest reactors. A report in August of this 12 months mentioned authorities officers had authorised 11 new reactors, together with a fourth-generation design, as a part of a $31 billion funding in new nuclear capability.
Elements Supporting Nuclear Deployment
The Nuclear Vitality Summit earlier this 12 months in Brussels, organized by IAEA and the Belgian authorities, recognized a number of components supporting a rise in nuclear energy, together with elevated entry to financing for new-build initiatives. Different components embrace what the group name “favorable vitality market frameworks,” together with workforce growth “and extra proactive help to newcomer nations.”
The report printed Monday mentioned reaching the high-case state of affairs for nuclear era capability will rely upon authorities insurance policies, together with funding help. It additionally mentioned demonstration initiatives can be wanted to review expertise for brand new reactors. The IAEA additionally mentioned a good regulatory setting, and world collaboration, can be wanted, significantly within the growth of SMRs.
The IAEA from Oct. 21-25 will host the Worldwide Convention on SMRs and their Purposes in Vienna, which is able to convey collectively varied stakeholders to debate tips on how to speed up deployment of SMRs.
—Darrell Proctor is senior editor for POWER (@POWERmagazine).
