At the very least one Southeast Asian nation – Thailand – has declared the arrival of La Niña in early August. Others recommend a 70 per cent likelihood of La Niña circumstances between August and October 2024. Typically, crop-producing nations welcome the appearance of La Niña (“little woman”), however given some unfavourable impacts, the phenomenon is often a double-edged sword.
La Niña is welcome after the warmth waves and drought introduced by the 2023–2024 El Niño, which was recorded as one of many 5 strongest on document. It impacted agriculture, notably rice manufacturing, in Southeast Asia. El Niño was declared to have ended by Might 2024. Not like El Niño, La Niña is usually related to cooler and wetter climate that might deliver beneficial rising circumstances for crops. La Niña often succeeds an El Niño (particularly if the latter is taken into account sturdy), however not all the time.
The La Niña phenomenon is characterised by unusually low temperatures. It sometimes happens each 3–5 years or so, and is as a result of periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures throughout the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. It might probably additionally happen over successive years and final six to 24 months.
La Niña’s impacts are almost the other of El Niño’s. It might probably intensify rain and warmth patterns in comparison with when the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is within the impartial section. Some local weather authorities are cautious; Indonesia’s, the Philippines’, Vietnam’s and Malaysia’s state climate bureaus are monitoring potential storms and flood dangers that are projected to begin in August, and within the case of the Philippines, elevated tropical cyclone incidence.
Local weather companies warning, nevertheless, that as sea floor temperatures attain record-breaking ranges in 2023–2024 beneath the affect of local weather change, there’s a departure from historic international patterns of warmth transfers related to ENSO. It’s thus difficult to foretell how this anomalistic enhance in international sea floor temperatures might have an effect on future La Niña and El Niño occasions. Analysis has proven, nevertheless, that the 2 occasions have grow to be extra frequent and excessive as a consequence of local weather change.
Traditionally, La Niña has resulted in elevated rainfall in components of Southeast Asia, notably within the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia (see Determine 1). Most of the area’s maritime nations expertise extra rain from September to November and once more from March to Might. Nonetheless, rainfall is decreased within the Philippines and Indochina between June and August.
Further precipitation coinciding with planting seasons might enhance soil moisture, thereby benefiting crops, however higher-than-average rainfall and wind methods might end in floods or extra harmful typhoons. Relying on the stage of the agriculture manufacturing cycle, this might consequence in lack of fertile topsoil/ fertiliser, seeds being washed away, landslides, poorer-quality crops, crop destruction, or livestock mortality.
Based mostly on historic data, the primary rice-producing nations – Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand – have typically benefited from greater rice manufacturing throughout “sturdy” La Niña years (see Determine 2).
Put Up Your Umbrella
Determine 1: Typical rainfall adjustments in Southeast Asia based mostly on restricted historic La Niña occurrences (between 1979 and 2021) for Sep–Nov, Dec–Feb, Mar–Might and Jun–Aug.
Greater Rice Harvests (Normally)
Determine 2: Rice Manufacturing (in million metric tonnes) between 1995 and 2022 overlaid with La Niña and El Niño durations in Southeast Asian nations, with stars indicating years the place manufacturing elevated.
Supply: FAOStat, GGweather
Observe: 2020–2021 is an anomaly as a consequence of Covid-19-related manufacturing impacts.
Notably, places impacted by final yr’s sturdy El Niño might have skilled detrimental environmental, social and financial results. That is more likely to have an effect on the productiveness of subsequent planting seasons. For instance, soils compacted as a consequence of heatwaves and drought in 2023–2024 might have restricted capability to soak up rainfall, resulting in greater runoff and inflicting floods. Farmers already reeling from financial losses as a consequence of low yield might discover it difficult to afford ample seeds and different inputs for the subsequent crop cycle. This might curtail the talents of farmers to maximise the dividends from La Niña.
La Niña sometimes has an impression on the worldwide provide of staple grains, because it brings dry circumstances and low yields to Argentina (affecting corn, wheat, and soybean) and Brazil (affecting corn and wheat). Each nations are main reasonably priced grain exporters. Generally, nevertheless, this decline could be offset by agriculture features in China, India, Australia and components of North America on account of useful climate (see Determine 3), although the timing and energy of precipitation issues. Flooding throughout harvest durations may end in decrease yields.
Southeast Asia is a massive and fast-growing importer of cereals and oilseeds. Indonesia is among the many world’s prime three wheat importers, and the Philippines is among the many prime ten. Many Southeast Asian nations are web importers of corn (Determine 4). Malaysia and Vietnam import roughly 100 per cent and 75 per cent of their corn, respectively. Southeast Asia’s wheat and corn provides are primarily from Argentina and Brazil. Wheat is used for meals and feed, whereas most corn is used for feed. Any international provide scarcity would enhance the worth of meat in Southeast Asia. It will additionally impression meals commerce. For instance, Vietnam is the third largest seafood exporter on this planet, greater than half of which is farmed fish and shrimp which rely on imported feed.
Moist Dry Moist
Determine 3: Web moist and dry areas and timing globally on account of La Niña
Whereas La Niña sometimes results in above-average precipitation in components of Southeast Asia and is commonly a boon to agriculture, this isn’t a assured development. Local weather change has shifted ENSO dynamics; its impression on La Niña – and future El Niños – is but unknown. One factor identified is that local weather change has made climate on account of La Niña extra excessive, and this may occasionally enhance dangers of flooding, particularly in low-lying agricultural zones. If rainfall coincides with delicate durations within the crop cycle, La Niña may additionally end in substantial injury to mature crops and worsen pest and illness outbreaks.
Boon or bane, Southeast Asian nations needs to be proactive to mitigate dangers and seize potential advantages. Fairly than simply being glad that water reservoirs could also be refilled, governments ought to help farmers to get better from final yr’s El Niño-related challenges rapidly – with extension (farmer help) providers and beneficial credit score for inputs – in order that they’re able to maximise features ought to they eventuate. Moreover, policymakers also needs to put together for potential meat worth inflation and commerce disruptions as a consequence of grain yield decline in La Niña-impacted areas in Latin America. Over the long term, policymakers may also must put money into enhancing R&D for climate-resilient crops, guaranteeing the long-term sustainability and resilience of meals within the area.
This text was first printed in Fulcrum, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s blogsite.
