Mexico is ramping up its use of pure fuel for energy era, with a number of vegetation coming on-line in recent times, and at the least 10 extra (Desk 1) anticipated to return on-line this 12 months, subsequent 12 months, or in 2026. The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) in an evaluation printed in April of this 12 months forecast a rise in U.S. pure fuel pipeline exports to Mexico, noting that a number of pipelines in Mexico—Tula-Villa de Reyes, Tuxpan-Tula, and Cuxtal Section II connecting to the Energía Mayakan pipeline on the Yucatán Peninsula—will turn into totally operational this 12 months and subsequent, after starting partial service in 2022.
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Desk 1. This chart reveals 10 new mixed cycle pure fuel–fired energy vegetation which have been just lately added or are deliberate in Mexico over the following couple of years. Supply: FTI Consulting with public data from the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) Enterprise Plan 2024–2028 de la CFE, CFE’s Annual Report 2022, and CFE press releases |
The company mentioned flows through the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan underwater pipeline are prone to enhance this 12 months when that line begins delivering U.S.-produced pure fuel to Quick LNG (liquefied pure fuel) Altamira, Mexico’s first LNG export undertaking. The Middle on World Power Coverage at Columbia College in October 2023 reported that Mexico meets most (practically 70%) of its demand for pure fuel from fuel despatched through pipeline from the U.S. The group mentioned Mexico is receiving between 6 billion to 7 billion cubic ft per day (Bcf/d). The Columbia report mentioned elevated imports from the U.S. have come as a result of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), Mexico’s nationwide oil firm, can’t produce sufficient pure fuel to maintain tempo with the nation’s demand.
The demand for fuel has primarily been from the ability era sector, as demand for electrical energy throughout Mexico has elevated dramatically. The nation’s nationwide power ministry, referred to as SENER, mentioned greater than 60% of Mexico’s electrical capability additions over the previous a number of years have been pure fuel–fired energy vegetation, a pattern anticipated to proceed via this decade.
Veronica Irastorza, senior managing director for FTI Consulting, informed POWER, “Mexico depends closely on pure fuel as its main gasoline supply for electrical energy era, accounting for practically half of its complete power combine. It’s a significant part for quite a few industrial operations [iron, steel, glass, and petrochemicals to name a few]. Regardless of a modest uptick in native manufacturing in 2022 following a interval of decline, Mexico nonetheless imports largely from the U.S. round 90% of its pure fuel [or 70% if we include Pemex’s reinjections and flaring]. U.S. pure fuel exports to Mexico will proceed to develop over the approaching decade.”
Irastorza mentioned, “Due to the shale fuel revolution and a strong market, the U.S. has loved among the best pure fuel costs on the planet for years, benefiting the entire area, together with Mexico. Over the previous 5 years, pipeline infrastructure facilitating the transportation of U.S. fuel to Mexico has doubled. Within the subsequent few years, the Mexican authorities expects so as to add about 6,000 MW of mixed cycles that can use pure fuel. As well as, a number of firms are growing [LNG] export tasks in Mexico to export U.S. fuel to Europe and Asia. Two of those vegetation are already below building [New Fortress in Tamaulipas and Sempra’s Costa Azul in Baja]. A 3rd one, Saguardo Energia, can be transferring ahead.”
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1. The 766-MW Topolobampo III energy plant entered service earlier this 12 months. It options two 7HA.01 fuel generators from GE Vernova. The plant is also able to burning hydrogen blended with pure fuel. Courtesy: GE Vernova |
Among the many largest gas-fired vegetation to return on-line just lately is Iberdrola’s Topolobampo III plant (Determine 1), which makes use of GE Vernova’s 7HA.01 fuel turbine know-how, together with GE Vernova’s prolonged scope portfolio for larger effectivity. Topolobampo III, a 766-MW facility within the Choacahui municipality of Ahome in Sinaloa state, is the primary in Mexico powered by the 7HA.01 turbine. It’s equipped by the close by Topolobampo pure fuel pipeline.
Topolobampo III and different new gas-fired amenities in Mexico are being constructed even because the nation will increase its era capability from renewable power. The Worldwide Power Company (IEA) just lately mentioned the nation’s inhabitants is anticipated to develop from about 127 million at the moment, to greater than 150 million by 2050. The IEA mentioned Mexico’s home manufacturing of pure fuel has risen the previous few years, as have its imports of U.S. fuel. Authorities officers have mentioned the fuel vegetation and their baseload energy manufacturing present help for the nation’s plan to greater than double renewable power era capability (photo voltaic and wind) from 15 GW to 40 GW by 2030.
Topolobampo III entered industrial operation in January of this 12 months. Iberdrola was awarded the contract to construct and function the ability plant in March 2017. “Iberdrola, as a worldwide renewable power chief, has all the time been engaged on extra sustainable energy era with a give attention to investing in a portfolio of renewable power, supported by environment friendly fuel energy,” mentioned Enrique Alba, CEO of Iberdrola Mexico. “Flexibility is crucial for incorporating renewable power sources into the grid like wind and solar energy and GE Vernova’s H-Class tools, on the coronary heart of our Topolobampo III energy plant, is essential to help the expansion of renewables energy era in Mexico. We’re proud to have a good time this milestone undertaking with GE Vernova. It additional strengthens our longstanding relationship with a participant which has all the time offered us with each essentially the most dependable know-how and glorious service throughout the previous 23 years.”
The Topolobampo III energy plant makes use of two of GE Vernova’s 7HA.01 fuel generators, a D650 steam turbine, three H53 mills, and superior plant management techniques with GE Vernova’s built-in Mark* VIe Distributed Management System (DCS), providing the likelihood to make use of real-time knowledge to ship higher outcomes supporting secure and environment friendly operations. The bundle is aimed to assist Iberdrola enhance asset visibility, reliability, and availability whereas lowering working and upkeep prices.
The plant’s two warmth restoration steam mills (HRSGs) have been equipped by CERREY, GE Vernova’s native HRSG know-how licensee. The plant additionally contains a custom-designed soundproof genset with an built-in management cupboard, which helps meet the distinctive necessities of the ability plant, as Topolobambo III accommodates particular masses that necessitate steady energy to make sure optimum operations. For instance, parts corresponding to lubrication pumps and cooling models should all the time stay practical, enabling the whole system to be shut down safely within the occasion of an influence outage. The genset helps to facilitate this operation, and its automation permits for the combination of exterior computerized switch switches, in addition to different switches, to make sure adherence to the start-up and cease sequence.
“In Mexico, GE Vernova continues to help the progress of the nation’s power targets, working alongside our long-term buyer Iberdrola. Because the demand for electrical energy in Mexico continues to develop at a speedy tempo, our HA know-how, prolonged scope merchandise, and superior digital capabilities are serving to to rework the best way future calls for are met by delivering extra dependable, environment friendly, and versatile energy to the nation,” mentioned Dave Ross, president and CEO for GE Vernova’s Gasoline Energy enterprise within the Americas. “We’re proud to be a part of this thrilling undertaking, which marks the primary order for our 7HA.01 know-how in Mexico. The 7HA fuel turbine at its core was engineered from the bottom as much as be extraordinarily environment friendly and versatile to assist decrease emissions and meet fluctuating demand. We anticipate continued effectivity features within the years to return.”
GE Vernova officers mentioned the corporate has invested nearly $2 billion in HA know-how improvement “to supply a mixture of the very best effectivity and superior operational flexibility.” The corporate mentioned the 7HA.01 also can begin and supply full energy in lower than 10 minutes, giving added flexibility to help altering grid demand. As well as, it has the potential to burn hydrogen when blended with pure fuel. Engineering help for the undertaking was offered by GEIQ, GE Vernova’s superior engineering heart in Queretaro, Mexico, the place native engineers supported the commissioning of the plant, its entrance into service, and can present aftermarket operations.
Jose Alberro, senior managing director for FTI Consulting, mentioned, “Mexico had an vital power reform in 2013 that opened era and retail electrical energy markets to competitors and set the stage for a wholesale electrical energy market, whereas conserving the transmission and distribution networks within the fingers of the government-owned nationwide utility, Comision Federal de Electricidad [CFE]. After his election in 2018, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador determined to extend CFE’s share of producing capability. To that impact, CFE acquired privately owned producing vegetation and introduced that it will put money into a further 6,300 MW, additional growing the demand for pure fuel by about 5%. The vegetation are already contracted and scheduled to return on-line within the subsequent few years.”
Some power analysts have been vital of Mexico’s elevated reliance on pure fuel. Rinaldo Brutoco, the founding president and CEO of World Enterprise Academy, informed POWER: “Mexico is making a vital miscalculation in its power technique by considerably growing its reliance on imported pure fuel from the U.S., which for electrical energy manufacturing has grown from 10% to about 45% of its power combine since 2000. On the identical time, tragically, there was just about no development in renewable power sources since 2014. This strategic path, whereas seemingly useful within the brief time period, poses substantial medium- and long-term dangers.” Brutoco mentioned these dangers embody exacerbating local weather change, and it “undermines Mexico’s potential to steer in local weather resilience.” Brutoco mentioned persevering with to import pure fuel will “divert essential monetary assets away from important investments in inexperienced power options inside Mexico, important for sustainable financial improvement and power independence.”
Brutoco added, “By persevering with to increase its pure fuel infrastructure, Mexico dangers falling behind within the world transition towards inexperienced applied sciences. This might hinder the event of home markets for modern inexperienced applied sciences and impair Mexico’s means to compete internationally within the burgeoning sustainable know-how sector.” Brutoco mentioned, “The prudent path for Mexico would contain pioneering developments in fuel-assisted microgrids that make the most of a majority of regionally sourced renewable power [such as solar, wind, and hydro].”
Brutoco informed POWER, “These microgrids could be interconnected, supporting one another with out the necessity for in depth high-power transmission traces. On days when renewable assets are inadequate, onsite gasoline cells utilizing inexperienced hydrogen may present the required energy, guaranteeing a dependable power provide. Persevering with to construct dependence on pure fuel is each short-sighted within the face of accelerating local weather change and destined to depart Mexico at an obstacle in comparison with nations transitioning to extra sustainable, less-costly, and exportable inexperienced applied sciences. In the end, if Mexico doesn’t redirect its focus towards extra sustainable power options corresponding to China, the U.S., European, and Asian international locations are doing, it’s going to discover itself more and more struggling to compete on the world stage.”
Different analysts mentioned Mexico wants to make sure that bringing extra energy era on-line have to be supported by versatile applied sciences, each for electrical energy transmission and distribution, and for market purposes. Lisa Henneberry, a accomplice with Crowell & Moring, a world regulation agency headquartered in Washington, D.C., informed POWER: “Mexico has lengthy been a heavy importer of U.S. pure fuel for energy era, partially attributable to Mexican constitutional restrictions [since liberalized] that made it difficult for them to totally commercialize their home pure fuel assets. Market liberalization led to fairly a little bit of funding in further cross-border pipeline capability that was designed to allow the event of further energy era, in tandem with the power to safe fuel provide on extra aggressive phrases by contracting with U.S. suppliers, which creates alternatives for significant demand development for U.S. fuel in Mexico.”
Henneberry mentioned, “One notable caveat right here because it pertains to fuel for energy era [whether pipeline gas or LNG] is in regards to the quantity of flex [or swing rights] and particularly tips on how to handle the variability of fuel demand for energy era [which varies based on dispatch of the generator] versus a fuel producer/provider’s want to make sure that what they’re committing to make accessible is definitely consumed or paid for, so there are many timing concerns and, after all, a industrial steadiness to be struck there—particularly as soon as the fuel enters the techniques right into a market that’s but sufficiently liquid to permit the forms of resale choices one may need within the U.S.”
Henneberry continued, “I’d argue that, at this stage of Mexico’s power market evolution, when making an allowance for myriad evolving applied sciences on the market, sustaining optimum flexibility must be the focus. To elaborate: Extra electrical energy provide is required and, past improvement of producing amenities [be they conventional or renewable], requires transmission infrastructure to make sure electrical energy not solely will get to the place it must go, but additionally guarantee grid stability, handle potential transmission points, and in addition have the ability to deal with an inflow of manufacturing that’s not essentially flat. [Case in point, solar generation peaks when the sun is shining, wind generation when the wind is blowing, neither of which is ‘flat’ or ‘baseload.’] Mexico enacted a storage coverage a couple of years in the past designed to deal with this difficulty partially, largely targeted round LNG, but additionally related to pipeline fuel, when/if totally applied.”
Stated Henneberry, “Electrical transmission will be tough and costly just about anyplace, and the terrain in Mexico typically makes it an advanced endeavor. There are every kind of applied sciences on the market, each established and rising, designed to deal with a few of these points, be it hydrogen gasoline cells that run on pure fuel, electrical energy battery storage techniques that discharge electrical energy or thermal power for industrial use, generators that may run on hydrogen [such as the Topolobampo III Plant, which has 50% hydrogen capability], ammonia, or pure fuel as direct gasoline sources, and lots of others.”
Henneberry mentioned gas-fired era “is important for power safety” for Mexico, at the least within the near- to mid-term, and “it’s also obligatory for transition functions over the long term. However, it’s also vital to incentivize these new applied sciences to be commercialized in order to allow modern options to be applied—be it within the type of microgrids, storage, dual-fuel capabilities, in order to in the end scale back the price of electrical energy to industrial and different finish shoppers. In the end, meaning placing a steadiness among the many wants of at the moment for dependable provide, funding in enabling rising know-how, and adaptability for adaptation to these applied sciences.” Henneberry mentioned the pliability might be “energy vegetation that may function with pure fuel or hydrogen or ammonia as a direct gasoline supply, a lot as we noticed with diesel and pure fuel again within the day, or another resolution.”
—Darrell Proctor is a senior affiliate editor for POWER.
