New York State’s Vitality Transition • Watts Up With That?

From the Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York

Roger Caiazza

Richard Ellenbogen lately gave an essential presentation on New York State’s Vitality Transition that particulars his considerations with the web -zero mandate of the Local weather Management and Neighborhood Safety Act (CLCPA).  I feel it can be crucial that his message will get out to all New Yorkers. 

Sadly, the presentation could be very detailed to keep away from points with these individuals who have a financial curiosity on this course of and the local weather zealots who will undoubtedly disagree with the findings and proposals.  This makes the video over two hours lengthy and really dense.  That is past the eye span of most individuals.  I attempted to handle that downside by highlighting what I feel are the first factors with hyperlinks to the corresponding sections of the video.

Ellenbogen is the President [BIO] Allied Converters and regularly copies me on emails that deal with numerous points related to the CLCPA.  I’ve revealed different articles by him and an outline of his keynote deal with to the Enterprise Council of New York 2023 Renewable Vitality Convention Vitality titled: “Vitality on Demand because the Life Blood of Enterprise and Entrepreneurship within the State -video right here:  Why NY State Should Rethink Its Vitality Plan and Ten Options to Assist Repair the Issues.” There are just a few individuals in New York which can be attempting to coach individuals concerning the dangers of the CLCPA with as a lot ardour as I’m however Richard definitely suits that description.  He comes on the downside as an engineer who actually cares concerning the surroundings and the way finest to enhance the surroundings with out unintended penalties.  He has spent an infinite period of time honing his presentation summarizing the issues he sees however most of all of the environmental efficiency file of his enterprise reveals that he’s strolling the stroll.  

CLCPA Overview

The CLCPA established a New York “Internet Zero” goal (85% discount and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  It consists of an interim 2030 discount goal of a 40% discount by 2030 and a requirement that each one electrical energy generated be “zero-emissions” by 2040. The Local weather Motion Council (CAC) is answerable for making ready the Scoping Plan that outlines how one can “obtain the State’s daring clear vitality and local weather agenda.”  Briefly, that plan is to affect every thing attainable utilizing zero-emissions electrical energy. The Integration Evaluation ready by the New York State Vitality Analysis and Improvement Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantifies the affect of the electrification methods.  That materials was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan.  After a year-long evaluate, the Scoping Plan suggestions have been finalized on the finish of 2022.  In 2023 the Scoping Plan suggestions are purported to be carried out by means of regulation and laws.  Ellenbogen’s presentation focuses on these proposed implementation packages.

Presentation Introduction

The Introduction to the presentation explains:

The next video has been made as a public service for the residents of New York State.  The audio system haven’t any financial curiosity within the fossil gas trade or in any of the tools producers associated to the vitality transition.  The rental of the Pelham Image Home, used for the presentation, was coated at their private expense.

Ellenbogen despatched me an electronic mail that described the presentation.  He wrote:

The video has some main variations from the presentation that was completed because the keynote presentation on the Enterprise Council of NY State Renewable Vitality Convention as current occasions have made it extra obvious that the NY State Vitality plan has main flaws in its logic.  These points weren’t surprising, nonetheless watching them happen in actual time has made addressing the issues an crucial. Issues will not be going to get higher.

There are a number of elements of the presentation.  Two movies have been operating previous to the presentation whereas individuals have been coming into the theater. One is a video describing the merchandise his firm makes and the way his facility has been made extra vitality environment friendly. The second video explains sustainability at Allied Converters and the way it has saved them in enterprise regardless of New York’s excessive vitality costs.  The presentation video itself consists of an 8-minute introduction that that used these slides.  The remainder of the video is an 80-minute presentation  (slide deck) adopted by 45 minutes of questions and solutions.

Ellenbogen notes:

The presentation is lengthy as a result of it is extremely detailed.  It was completed that manner as a result of everybody that has a financial curiosity on this course of, together with the local weather zealots, goes to try to disparage the data contained within the presentation so I attempted to cowl the entire points to keep away from that as a lot as attainable.

I’m very conscious of issues associated to attempting to explain the intricacies and issues with the CLCPA transition.  It’s associated to one in all my pragmatic environmentalist ideas particularly the BS Asymmetry Precept described by Alberto Brandolini: “The quantity of vitality essential to refute BS is an order of magnitude larger than to supply it.”  Richard and I have to delve into the small print to answer the issues of the CLCPA.  That is obligatory however it additionally makes it tough for individuals to deal with the quantity and complexity of data wanted to elucidate flaws.  I attempted to spotlight what I feel are the important thing factors within the presentation with hyperlinks to the corresponding part of the video in case readers do not need the time to take heed to the entire thing.

Key Factors

Within the Introduction Ellenbogen presents an outline of the CLCPA and among the issues.  A recurring theme within the presentation is that different jurisdictions, particularly Germany.  which have been attempting to do the identical factor as deliberate within the CLCPA will not be doing so nicely.  Ignoring their expertise is dangerous. He argues that the CLCPA is a fantasy for the next causes:

1. Lack of vitality to help the plan,
2. The renewables wanted can’t be put in on the mandated schedule,
3. Prices to excecute the plan will likely be a lot better than different emission discount methods,
4. The plan will improve GHG emissions greater than different methods, and
5. There are logic errors within the analyses.

John Ravitz from the Enterprise Council of Westchester County collaborated with Ellenbogen to prepare the presentation.  Throughout his introduction he argued that all of us need a greater surroundings, however now we have to do it the precise manner.  He emphasised the necessity to have sincere conversations about how one can get there.  I agree with all these factors.  He additionally stated one thing that confirmed what I had lengthy suspected.  He identified that the CLCPA laws was handed “in the dark” on the finish of the session and “I assure you that 99.9% of the members of the New York State Legislature didn’t learn the invoice.”  He stated they didn’t perceive the schedule points and unintended penalties that would occur.

The presentation itself begins with extra background of what Ellenbogen did at his enterprise and the way that background worries him concerning the proposed plan to satisfy the CLCPA mandates. 

There are solely two points the place I’ve considerably completely different opinions than Ellenbogen.  Whereas I can agree that decreasing emissions is an effective factor I don’t imagine that greenhouse gasoline emission reductions may have any impact on excessive climate.  I toyed with together with a extra detailed argument for my perception and a response to Ellenbogen’s feedback on this regard however I don’t wish to detract from the primary level that the CLCPA is unhealthy coverage.

My considerations concerning the implementation of the CLCPA are similar to Ellenbogen, however we’re not precisely aligned.  Certainly one of his massive departures from the narrative of the CLCPA acolytes is that he sees a spot for brand spanking new pure gasoline mixed cycle generators.  That’s heresy to those that insist on zero emissions.  I agree with Wealthy on that, however I feel using current fossil-fired producing items is acceptable too as a result of many items have put in further controls, have decrease emissions than up to now, and nonetheless fulfill essential reliability providers.  There isn’t a query that till the New York impartial System Operator (NYOSO) determines these items will be shut down they’ve to stay obtainable.  Nonetheless, I imagine that it could be acceptable to maintain a few of these items on standby longer than anybody else admits at this level as a result of wind and photo voltaic sources availability throughout worst-case situations is a a lot larger downside than most individuals notice.  These outdated items will be an insurance coverage coverage for these uncommon and comparatively short-term occasions.

His description of the Complicated Drawback Conundrum is especially essential.  Within the rush to achieve zero the Local weather Act doesn’t account for probably ratepayer reactions.  If you happen to drive individuals to make use of one thing that’s dearer and doesn’t work as nicely they might resort to alternate options which can be even worse.   

One other essential dialogue explains why New York State vitality coverage is a large number.  He argues and I agree that political interference within the technical points related to working a dependable and inexpensive electrical vitality system can not finish nicely.  It can’t be emphasised sufficient {that a} life like price/profit evaluation has not been completed.  The Hochul Administration has by no means supplied detailed documentation for the prices and anticipated emission reductions for the precise management methods which can be included within the Scoping Plan.  That must be the primary element of an sincere dialog.  His dialogue goes on to checklist most of the obstacles to implementation which can be additionally prime matters for conversations. 

I agree with Ellenbogen’s description of obstacles that should be overcome.  He factors out that we’re not studying from others and that “Madness is doing the identical factor again and again and anticipating completely different outcomes.”

I have written concerning the assertion by Robert W. Howarth, Ph.D., the David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology & Environmental Biology supporting the adoption of the Scoping Plan. Howarth claims to be an writer of the CLCPA and was a member of the Local weather Motion Council. Ellenbogen addresses the tutorial article that Howarth co-authored that’s the foundation of the Local weather Act presumption that no new know-how is required for the electrical system transition and that the mandated schedule is feasible. As a result of he’s a graduate of Cornell, Ellenbogen felt it was obligatory to elucidate his reasoning in his electronic mail:

To anybody at Cornell or Stanford that has an issue with the presentation on the 47 minute mark, I stand behind what I stated.  There’s data in these paperwork that was false in 2013 and that has been confirmed by the truth that in 2023, the applied sciences that they claimed have been available then nonetheless don’t exist in a kind that can be utilized on the utility system, however this doc is getting used as the premise for NY State Vitality coverage and other people could die because of this.

Later within the presentation he references work by Cornell engineers that claims the transition plan that’s the foundation of the CLCPA will fail.  It’s actually troubling that Ellenbogen and the ability system consultants at Cornell haven’t been in a position to affect New York vitality coverage away from the mis-guided and refuted educational paper co-authored by a biologist.   

The CLCPA will have an effect on the way in which we warmth our houses. Ellenbogen has private expertise with warmth pumps and does a good job explaining why the deal with warmth pumps as an answer by NYSERDA will fail.  He factors out issues which have been noticed in Germany within the following slide.

The CLCPA can even have an effect on the way in which we cook dinner.  The same old suspects have been vilifying pure gasoline stoves and the presentation addresses this element of the net-zero transition.   He argues that the well being affect claims will not be well worth the paper they’re printed on and the tradeoff between advantages and prices is poor.

With a purpose to clarify why the Integration Evaluation is fantasy he offers background data on the distinction between energy and vitality and why capability elements are essential.  Ellenbogen repeatedly states that “I’m not anti-renewable however it’s a must to take a look at the numbers and be life like”.  The facility, vitality, and capability issue numbers have an effect on the viability of a renewable vitality powered electrical grid.

He describes the evaluation within the Scoping Plan for the CLCPA as fantasy.  The Energy, vitality, and capability issue estimates within the Integration evaluation will not be life like.  I like the outline of the 20 GW of zero-carbon agency useful resource as “unicorn technology” as a result of “you might be as more likely to see it as you might be to see a unicorn.”  Everybody besides Howarth and his acolytes believes that this zero-carbon agency useful resource is required to handle rare intervals of prolonged low wind and photo voltaic useful resource availability.  The vitality transition requires this new know-how, however the State has unrealistic expectations for implementing it.

Ellenbogen’s presentation presents a rational different to the fantasies of the CLCPA implementation plan.  He appears on the electrical load obligatory to interchange the vitality used for purposes apart from electrical technology – heating, cooking, scorching water, and transportation and concludes that on-site combustion of pure gasoline ought to have a job.  The Cornell examine of vitality storage reveals a a lot increased estimate of quantity wanted and that will increase prices considerably. 

For the price of the storage wanted you can construct 6 or 7 nuclear crops that may produce dispatchable energy and would final 60 years.  Wind and photo voltaic life expectancy is on the order of 20 years and batteries half of that which makes this transition technique is far more costly.  He notes that implementation prices are already beginning to present up in price instances and it will solely proceed.  His arguments for alternate options additionally level out that batteries will improve emissions till all of the technology is zero-emissions.

Ellenbogen has refined his evaluation over time.  I feel his arguments to depart on-site combustion in place are notably persuasive.  It’s extra environment friendly to make use of on-site technology.  He advocates for elevated use of electrical automobiles and permitting this technology frees up vitality for them which implies much less technology is required.  He additionally recommends a practical method to scale back CO2 emissions from utility-scale co-generation.  The productiveness in greenhouses will increase considerably at increased CO2 ranges and the CO2 is taken up by the crops.  I vaguely recall a plan to construct greenhouses on the industrial park the place the Micron chip fabrication plant is deliberate.  Utilizing a co-generation energy plant to supply the electrical energy wanted by that facility, utilizing the waste warmth for fabrication processes, and supplying the CO2 to the greenhouses addresses a number of issues and reduces total prices.

Lastly, he makes suggestions to scale back private utility prices and short- and long-term adjustments to the New York vitality plan.  It’s no shock that vitality effectivity is essential for private utility price reductions.  For the vitality plan he suggests the next short-term suggestions:

1. Don’t electrify buildings that run on pure gasoline,
2. Focus warmth pump deployment away from buildings that run on pure gasoline,
3. Improve the grid infrastructure to help the electrification necessities,
4. Improve help for electrical automobile infrastructure together with grid help,
5. Don’t set up giant quantities of battery storage till renewable technology will increase,
6. Repower older producing crops with increased effectivity mixed cycle pure gasoline items,
7. Develop applied sciences apart from electrolysis to generate inexperienced hydrogen,
8. Focus pure gasoline sources on mixed warmth and energy techniques,
9. Permit Micron to construct a 2 GW mixed cycle co-generation facility,
10. Work out how the utilities can set up and interconnect the deliberate offshore wind,
11. Arrange pilot tasks for greenhouse agriculture to establish values, and
12. Authorize the institution of pyrolysis tasks for the elimination of plastic waste and natural waste and for technology of hydrogen that can be utilized to enhance energy plant effectivity.

In the long run he suggests including 12 GW of nuclear to the producing system.

He concludes that New York ought to use widespread sense options to maintain the lights on as a result of when fantasies meet actuality, actuality at all times wins.  He notes that the CLCPA really is hindering greenhouse gasoline emission efforts, dangers reliability and can have an effect on affordability. Within the following slide he urges individuals to contact their State Senators and Assemblypersons to switch or repeal the CLCPA.

Q&A

In case you are within the questions and solutions they begin at this level.  The session obtained heated when somebody who subscribes to the entire CLCPA narrative speaking factors that Ellenbogen dismantled in his presentation requested why wind and photo voltaic alone can’t work and claimed nuclear has no place.  It obtained so unhealthy that somebody within the viewers piped in and stated should you can not present numbers supporting your place like Ellenbogen did then sit down since you losing our time. 

Caveat

Ellenbogen has invested monumental time and vitality into this presentation due to his private conviction that the present plan just isn’t a good suggestion.  He writes:

Take into account that I’ve no financial curiosity on this however I’ve an enormous downside with the questionable or misleading at finest, and  negligent at worst, science getting used to justify these insurance policies.  I’ve spent 1000’s of hours researching the small print and have attended the entire conferences in Albany and elsewhere at my private expense, each in money and time, in addition to paying for the rental of the Image Home, together with John Ravitz.

Conclusion

Ellenbogen factors out that the societal advantages are calculated as if New York is in a vacuum.  The very fact is that utterly eliminating New York greenhouse gasoline emissions won’t have a significant impact on any of the impacts ascribed to local weather change as a result of the state’s whole emissions are so small that they are going to be subsumed by emission improve elsewhere throughout the globe in a matter of weeks. He goes to nice lengths so level out that he’s not anti-renewable vitality sources.  These factors and others that disparage the CLCPA transition plan don’t imply that we should always not do one thing to scale back GHG emissions.  Nonetheless, we should always not “make up fantasies to justify it” or keep away from sincere conversations about how finest to implement a transition to decrease emissions.  It’s time to actually speak concerning the implications of this legislation.

Ellenbogen has the ear of many individuals on the companies in Albany and unofficially they agree together with his considerations.  Sadly, they don’t seem to be within the place to say something publicly as a result of the CLCPA is a legislation and the companies have been weaponized to help the political ambitions of the Administration within the final decade.  Talking out of line with narrative just isn’t a superb profession transfer for technical workers on the companies.  Privately they admit that it’s going to take a Texas-style blackout catastrophe to vary the course of the net-zero transition. The February 2021 Texas electrical grid failure was the worst vitality infrastructure failure in Texas historical past leading to over 4.5 million houses and residences shedding energy in very chilly climate, over 245 individuals dying and whole damages of no less than $195 billion. 

Keep in mind that New York vitality consultants are warning that until one thing is finished this kind of catastrophe is inevitable right here. I ready this abstract of the presentation as a result of I feel it is very important educate New Yorkers.  I reiterate Ellenbogen’s advice: contact your State Senators and Assemblypersons to switch or repeal the CLCPA.  Contact the Governor’s Workplace in order that the Administration will get the phrase that the loud environmental organizations will not be the one ones involved about this legislation.  Go on this presentation to others who will likely be affected by this fantastical vitality coverage and encourage them to talk up.  It’s too dangerous, we can not afford it, and the plans are unsupportable.