New Zealand EV Market Seeks New Regular — Dips to 4.1%

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Is it too early to inform the place the New Zealand electrical automobile market will settle within the medium to long run? I hope so, because the figures from February are barely worse than these of January 2024. We’re nonetheless ready for a restoration from modifications in authorities coverage.

James from EVdb describes the February numbers as “subdued,” at round 4.1% of all gentle automobiles. The sedan market was extra encouraging at 8.9% penetration. We want extra electrical utes! This penetration fee is way decrease than the 2023 common of somewhat over 27%.

747 plug-in automobiles had been added to the New Zealand fleet in February 2024, 482 BEVs (double January’s numbers) and 265 PHEVs (about the identical as in January). That’s out of a complete of 18,094 gentle automobiles (once more, double January’s numbers). EV numbers are growing, however not on the identical fee because the fossil fuelled portion of the market.

It seems to be like Jacinda Ardern’s plan to make New Zealand the Norway of the Pacific is struggling a setback. Authorities coverage does make a distinction. James tells us that, “As of the top of February 2024, there are over 73,000 totally electrical gentle automobiles (plus virtually 31,000 plug-in hybrids)” on New Zealand roads. Plug-in automobiles now make up somewhat over 2% of the on-road fleet. He calls the top of the clear automotive low cost, coupled with the introduction of the Street Person Cost, a “one, two punch” that alerts to the market “shopping for an EV is a dumb thought.” As such, it could take greater than 1 / 4 to establish the brand new regular within the NZ EV market.

Though nonetheless low, this stage of fleet penetration is resulting in a name for extra mechanics skilled to work with electrical automobiles. Who do you name in case your EV has an issue? A mechanic, an electrician, or a software program engineer? As EVs age, there can be a have to increase on the abilities of these referred to as to restore them.

Martin Grzelka, an electrical automobile coaching marketing consultant working with dealerships in New Zealand, tells us: “If somebody just isn’t effectively skilled on the know-how, the technician doesn’t actually know what to search for and tips on how to diagnose sure issues as know-how has modified, the misdiagnosis generally is a pricey factor.”

My ideas are that plug-less hybrids have been accessible for the previous 20 years and the abilities in repairing them must be transferable to BEVs and definitely to PHEVs. All coaching must be present with each the brand new and the previous know-how — this isn’t simply a difficulty with EVs.

The highest 10 finest promoting battery electrical automobiles offered in New Zealand in February 2024 had been:

1. Tesla Mannequin Y (145 — yr up to now, 170)
2. BYD Atto 3 (23 — yr up to now, 28)
3. Ford Mustang Mach-e (20 — yr up to now, 29)
4. Kia EV6 (17 — yr up to now, 19)
5. Audi e-tron GT (14 — yr up to now, 14)
6. BYD Seal (13 — yr up to now, 43)
7. Hyundai Ioniq 5 (12 — yr up to now, 14)
8. MG4 (12 — yr up to now, 24)
9. Kia EV9 (9 — yr up to now, 17)
10. Toyota BZ4X (9 — yr up to now, 32)

BMW appears to have fallen off the chart, as has the Subaru Solterra (solely promoting 6 items final month). I’d anticipate the chart above to replicate New Zealand’s EV imports extra in truth than January’s prime 10 figures. BYD’s numbers ought to decide up, particularly as extra items of the “reasonably priced” Dolphin arrive — just one offered in February.

New Zealand has sturdy used automotive import trade, with 90 used EVs imported. Nissan Leaf numbers doubled month on month. Used BEVs are usually not included within the prime ten figures above, however they’re as follows: 69 Nissan Leafs; 5 Tesla Mannequin S; 3 Peugeot 2008; 2 Tesla Mannequin X; 2 Nissan e-NV200; 2 Nissan Sakura; 2 Audi e-tron; 2 Jaguar i-PACE; 1 Renault Zoe; 1 Mazda MX30; 1 Peugeot e-208. No hydrogen vehicles had been offered.

The rostrum is occupied by the standard suspects, with the gold going to Tesla, the silver to BYD, and the bronze to Kia. As within the international race, the problem is to fill the third spot. Tesla has a commanding lead with 42% market share, BYD lags behind this month with 10%, and Kia is nipping at its heels with 8% market share.

The 8 prime promoting plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) in February 2024 had been:

1. Mitsubishi Outlander (42 — yr up to now, 52)
2. Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross (22 — yr up to now, 40)
3. Mini Countryman (16 — yr up to now, 30)
4. Porsche Cayenne (12 — yr up to now, 36)
5. Land Rover Defender (8 — yr up to now, 21)
6. Lexus NX (7 — yr up to now, 15)
7. Volkswagen Tuareg (6 — yr up to now, 20)
8. BMW X3 — 6

Mini has gone again to December figures. And for individuals who have to know, there was one Bentley Flying Spur PHEV offered. The Bentley comes with the choice of a PHEV incorporating a 2.9 litre V6 engine. If it’s essential to ask the value, you clearly can’t afford it! In February, 1890 (this a quantity, not a yr!) plug-less hybrids took 32% of the New Zealand market, primarily Toyota RAV4s. It’s value noting that Toyota solely offered 39 items that ran on petrol alone and 97 on diesel. HEVs are doing their half to cut back dependence on imported oil. Petrol-only automobiles took 49% of the market, and diesel 11%.

Nearly all of dialogue on the NZ EV Fb web page has been in regards to the introduction of the street person cost (begins April 1st — no, not a joke, it actually does!).

A evaluate of the street person cost (RUC) by a NZ choose committee has come to those conclusions:

Re: plug-in hybrid EVs: “Nearly all of us take into account {that a} 30% discount of the RUC fee successfully accounts for any extra prices in gasoline excise responsibility.”

Re: the speed for EVs: “We perceive that very environment friendly automobiles pay lower than their justifiable share. We don’t consider that amendments to the invoice can handle the underpayment by environment friendly petrol automobiles. We predict that the best way to take action is to maneuver as rapidly as doable to a system the place all automobiles pay RUC primarily based on distance and automobile weight.”

Re: the impression on local weather & EV uptake: “The RUC Act 2012 just isn’t supposed to encourage a transition to any explicit gasoline. As well as, we predict that the comparably low fee paid by environment friendly petrol automobiles is the first reason for any distortion.”

I agree — distance and weight must be the concerns and the RUC ought to apply to all automobiles. In broader information: extreme climate occasions, fuelled by local weather cost, are inflicting an estimated NZ$1.7 billion in injury to NZ roads — discouraging EV uptake won’t assist. The street person cost won’t fund it. Governments want to hunt higher options.

Rewiring New Zealand has produced a report (accessible right here) with some nice graphs demonstrating the overall price of possession benefit of electrical vehicles charged at dwelling.

Excellent news: Tesla is constructing a brand new showroom in Auckland and is searching for extra workers to allow its growth. Extra excellent news: earlier this month, as a part of an article about Australia’s EV penetration, I included a photograph of a petroleum tank blocking chargers in a NZ nationwide park. Readers can be glad to know that the tank has now gone — however in an odd accident, so have the chargers. Maybe collateral injury in building?

In a yr of competing narratives, it’s a case of watch for the mud to settle and search information. Is the uptake of EVs slowing? In NZ, sure. Globally, no. Some are rubbing their palms and saying: “Instructed you so — simply an costly gimmick!” I’m taking a worldwide view and awaiting the info as it’s revealed.