Ontario Energy Technology (OPG) will refurbish 4 items on the Pickering Nuclear Producing Station, Canada’s first main business era plant— marking a significant turnaround for the three.1-GW plant slated to shut by 2025.
Officers from Ontario’s authorities and OPG on Jan. 30 introduced plans to refurbish Items 5–8 on the large energy plant east of Toronto, citing power adequacy and affordability issues because the province units out to decarbonize its system by 2040.
As soon as solely refurbished by the mid-2030s, the Pickering station may have a 2 GW capability, officers mentioned on Tuesday. OPG intends to kick off the huge mission this yr with the mission initiation part, which incorporates engineering and design work, in addition to securing long-lead parts.
In accordance with Ontario Minister of Vitality Todd Smith, the mission will provoke with C$2 billion (US$1.49 billion), offering funding for scoping engineering design work that’s anticipated to start “over the following yr or so.” He prompt that the scoping and engineering work is anticipated to tell OPG’s future steps, together with a agency schedule and correct price estimates.
A Huge Step that Staves Off an Imminent Closure
The three.1-GW Pickering station in Ontario includes six CANDU reactors at two distinct amenities—Pickering A (Items 1–4) and Pickering B (Items 5–8). The Pickering A items got here on-line between 1971 and 1973 however have been voluntarily faraway from service in 1997. Items 1 and 4, nevertheless, have been refurbished and returned to operation in November 2005 and September 2003, respectively. Pickering B—Items 5 by way of 8—started working between 1983 and 1986.
Whereas the plant provides about 14% of Ontario’s wants, OPG has sought to shutter Items 1–4 at Pickering A in 2024, when the items’ present license granted by the Canadian Nuclear Security Fee (CNSC) ends. Nevertheless, acknowledging a necessity for extra electrical energy by way of 2026, the utility in September 2022 kicked off a course of to hunt regulatory approval to function Pickering B—Items 5–8—by way of September 2026.
Ontario had then requested OPG—a Crown company wholly owned by the province—to replace its feasibility and value evaluation (final carried out between 2006 and 2009) for refurbishing the items to assist meet the province’s rising wants. Whereas OPG has acknowledged additional operation of the plant past 2026 would require a “full refurbishment,” it has underscored refurbishment might lead to a further 30 years of energy from the power.
Pickering Refurbishment Will Be Modeled on Related Initiatives at Darlington, Bruce
On Tuesday, OPG CEO Ken Hartwick famous that every one items at Ontario’s different two nuclear amenities—Darlington and Bruce Nuclear producing stations—are scheduled for or have accomplished refurbishment.
“Over the previous 10 years, we’ve got discovered quite a bit about what it takes to refurbish a nuclear station the correct approach—with 1000’s of classes discovered from Darlington and Bruce Energy that we are going to apply to Pickering. And we’ve got mobilized an skilled nuclear workforce. We have now a sturdy nuclear provide chain that’s already tooled up and rolling,” Hartwick mentioned. “Briefly, we’ve got all of the instruments, expertise, and expertise to make Pickering refurb as profitable as Darlington refurb, and we intend to advance this in an identical method.”
Pickering may also profit from prior engagement with the CNSC that OPG initiated to permit Pickering B to function by way of 2026, Hartwick famous. “So there’s a really established and mature regulator that we’ve got to work with, which supplies us confidence that finally we’ll be in a spot that may obtain the required regulatory approvals to achieve success.”
Whereas complete mission prices to refurbish Pickering stay unclear till the utility can set up a agency schedule, Hartwick famous that the provincial authorities, OPG’s sole shareholder, will maintain it accountable to schedule and value estimations. “However once more, we stay very assured that this will likely be a really aggressive supply of power for the province as we go ahead,” he mentioned.
Ontario Minister of Vitality Smith on Tuesday mentioned the choice to maneuver ahead with Pickering’s refurbishment was primarily based each on OPG’s feasibility examine and evaluation by Ontario’s grid operator, Unbiased Electrical energy System Operator (IESO), to match the Pickering refurbishment to including renewables paired with battery storage.
The evaluation discovered that to interchange Pickering’s energy, the province would wish 18,000 MW of wind and a couple of,000 MW of battery storage, he mentioned. “What they discovered was [the refurbishment], by far, made essentially the most sense. This was what was going to be the most effective bang for the buck and supply the understanding that ratepayers within the province are searching for,” he mentioned.
Pickering Just lately Achieved ‘Greatest Efficiency in its Historical past’
Hartwick on Tuesday underscored Pickering has operated reliably and safely regardless of the looming closure of Pickering A items. In accordance with OPG, in 2023, Pickering produced 21.5 TWh, recording its highest era output since 2019 (and its second-highest output as a six-unit station).“In the previous few years, the station has achieved its finest efficiency in its historical past. In 2022, all six working items ran concurrently to provide power for 109 consecutive days, a station file. And in 2020, Pickering’s Unit 4 skilled a file consecutive run of 730 days. Each feats are a testomony to the station’s continued reliability,” it mentioned.
The station additionally produces round 20% of the world’s provide of Cobalt-60, a medical isotope used to irradiate and sterilize single-use medical units like syringes, gloves, implants, and surgical devices. The isotope emits gamma radiation, which makes it excellent for enhancing the security of medical merchandise and perishable meals reminiscent of fruits, meats, and spices, OPG explains. Cobalt-60 is extracted from reactors at Pickering and Bruce Energy’s Bruce B plant each 24 to 30 months.
In accordance with Canadians for Nuclear Vitality (C4NE), a grassroots non-profit led by Dr. Chris Keefer that advocated for Pickering’s refurbishment, the station’s significance has grown since 2009, when OPG determined to forgo Pickering B’s refurbishment. The 2009 determination was primarily based “partially to preserve assets for refurbishments at Darlington in addition to an anticipated new CANDU construct at Darlington B that was finally canceled in 2013. On the time, it appeared like there have been provide options,” C4NE famous in a 2022 detailed report, Save Pickering.
The report notes {that a} sequence of great developments have since added new pressures on OPG. “Going through new challenges, it now not is smart from a local weather and electrification perspective to dismantle hard-earned, dependable, low-carbon power infrastructure at a time when Ontario’s safe power future relies on crisis-level mobilization towards new capability procurements,” it says.
In 2020, OPG got down to turn out to be a net-zero carbon firm by 2040. As of September 2023, the utility’s era portfolio, a mixed 18.2 GW, was served by 66 hydroelectric stations, two nuclear stations (Darlington and Pickering), a biomass station, a dual-fueled oil and fuel station, and 4 mixed cycle fuel vegetation. Moreover, OPG owns two different nuclear producing stations in Ontario, that are leased long-term to Bruce Energy.
And in 2022, forecasting a surge in demand from electrification and financial development, OPG formally got down to construct its first small modular reactor (SMR) deployment—a GE Hitachi BWRX-300 reactor—at its Darlington New Nuclear Undertaking (DNNP) web site east of Darlington Station in Bowmanville, Ontario. In July 2023, the Ontario authorities additionally introduced approval to proceed with planning and licensing for 3 further SMRs for a complete of 4 SMRs (a mixed 1.2 GW) on the DNNP. The primary SMR is slated to be prepared for business operation in 2029, and the others may very well be constructed by 2036.
Ontario Going through Provide Shortfalls within the 2030s
However whereas OPG’s new nuclear items might considerably bolster the grid over the medium time period, Ontario clearly wants to arrange diligently to fulfill a coming onslaught of recent energy demand.
In its most up-to-date Annual Planning Outlook (APO), the IESO initiatives demand will develop at a mean annual charge of 1.9%, fueled by inhabitants development, electrical automobile adoption, and industrial sector development that electrifying or supporting electrification. IESO’s December 2022–launched Pathways to Decarbonization (P2D), in the meantime, means that Ontario’s energy system capability requirement might greater than double from 42 GW at present to 88 GW by 2050. “Which means Ontario could also be required to construct upwards of 69,000 MW of recent era by 2050 to make sure that a dependable and operable electrical energy system is maintained,” IESO confused.
“As we take a look at our wants forecast and our choices to deal with them, we’re beginning to see vital uncertainty on the provision facet,” mentioned David Devereaux, IESO director of Useful resource Planning, throughout a public webinar on Jan. 25. “We’re already beginning to see challenges in managing outages by way of a interval of tight provide. We’re already there with the refurbishments in flight, and it’s getting very difficult to have outages in the summertime, particularly,” he warned. Securing enough provide will turn out to be much more vital as Ontario’s system evolves right into a winter-peaking system (by 2036, because the APO initiatives), he prompt.
It implies that whereas Ontario expects to be “adequate” till the late 2020s, a “vital want” for power will begin to come up by way of the 2030s, mentioned Devereaux. During the last decade, “a lot of our want has been characterised by our peaking want that may very well be addressed by way of hourly merchandise,” he defined. Nevertheless, “that is evolving into a necessity for sustained power manufacturing, and a giant driver of that is the retirement of the Pickering plant.”
Canada’s Proposed Clear Electrical energy Mandate Might Exacerbate Ontario’s Provide Outlook
Compounding Ontario’s prospects, nevertheless, are Canada’s proposed Clear Electrical energy Rules (CER). The federal guidelines are poised to restrict carbon emissions from fossil-fired energy vegetation to remove emitting sources in Canada’s public electrical energy grids. A draft rule proposed in August 2023 is anticipated to be finalized this yr and will come into pressure by January 2025.
Whereas Ontario’s energy system is already virtually 90% emissions-free, current IESO research discovered that 8 GW of pure fuel era—representing about 17% of Ontario’s complete projected put in capability—might want to stay obtainable in 2035 to keep up system reliability. The grid operator notes that fuel era represents about 10.5 GW, or 28% of Ontario’s complete put in capability.
“The CER, as drafted, will severely limit the power of the pure fuel producing fleet to contribute to those reliability wants, creating a major capability deficit for Ontario’s system,” IESO mentioned in response to the proposed rule in November 2023. “At present, there are not any like-for-like replacements, at scale and with comparable working flexibility, for pure fuel era on the system.”
Nonetheless, Ontario has already got down to discover options, together with to develop a “strong power storage fleet,” the grid operator says. That features contracts to construct virtually 1,000 MW of battery storage by 2026 and an additional 1,600 MW of storage capability by 2035. “The plan has additionally led to the province initiating work on 4 new small modular reactors (SMR) at Darlington Nuclear Producing Station, in addition to inspecting the chance for the refurbishment of the 4 nuclear-generating items at Pickering B and growing new nuclear era on the Bruce web site,” it famous.
Work can also be shifting ahead to faucet into distributed power assets so small-scale era, versatile load, and storage in distribution networks can take part within the power market. On the identical time, IESO is investing in hydrogen and low-carbon fuels “to find out how they’ll present flexibility,” IESO mentioned.
Nevertheless, Devereaux mentioned that carbon coverage and its affect on the gas-fired fleet are simply one among many uncertainties on that facet of the equation. “We’ve received getting old property, refurbishment schedules, development schedules, and the provision chain to work with. We count on to see vital competitors for supplies for brand new assets as we construct out the fleet,” he famous final week. “Everybody, it appears, within the Western world is doing the identical factor on the identical time,” he mentioned.
—Sonal Patel is a POWER senior affiliate editor (@sonalcpatel, @POWERmagazine).
