Photo voltaic within the Southeast: seventh Version of Report

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On this introduction weblog for SACE’s newest version of our “Photo voltaic within the Southeast” report sequence, you possibly can learn up on which utilities and states can count on to see photo voltaic progress. Further blogs on this sequence will unpack extra of the outcomes, observations, and key coverage developments detailed within the report.

Now that it’s summer time, it’s time to shine a light-weight on photo voltaic progress within the Southeast. In SACE’s newest version of our “Photo voltaic within the Southeast” report sequence, you possibly can learn up on which utilities and states can count on to see photo voltaic progress. Total, the Southeast can now declare about 22 gigawatts (GW) of photo voltaic (22,183 megawatts, MW) on a full-year operational equal foundation, or a mean photo voltaic ratio of 665 watts per buyer in 2023. The Southeast is projected to almost double the quantity of photo voltaic within the area to nearly 44 GW for 2027. We additionally element how key coverage developments resembling latest utility useful resource plans and the inflow of federal funding from the Inflation Discount Act (IRA) to Southeastern states assist inform and develop the photo voltaic market.

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How will we observe photo voltaic progress for various states and utilities?

We begin by wanting on the general quantity of photo voltaic measured in megawatts (MW) of capability which are working or deliberate in a state or utility. Photo voltaic initiatives could be categorized as both utility-scale photo voltaic or distributed photo voltaic. Distributed photo voltaic is smaller and is often put in on the rooftops of residential or industrial clients, whereas utility-scale photo voltaic is bigger and is put in in ground-mounted arrays owned by a utility or a developer.

Utility-scale photo voltaic capability figures embrace each initiatives which were reported to federal information collectors, in addition to the combination capability of future photo voltaic sources in a utility’s built-in useful resource plan (IRP) which have but to be sited at a selected location. In each instances, the utilities could buy energy from a photo voltaic developer to obtain the photo voltaic mission’s output for a 20–30-year interval as a substitute of proudly owning it outright, however the capability itself continues to be attributed to the utility for that point interval.

Distributed photo voltaic is interconnected to the utility in quite a lot of completely different program stylings, resembling net-metered photo voltaic, digital photo voltaic, and tariffed photo voltaic, that are included in all of our figures.

Altogether, the Southeast is ready to declare greater than 22 gigawatts (GW) of photo voltaic (22,183 MW) as of 2023. In an effort to examine tons of of various utilities within the Southeast, SACE ranks utilities on the premise of photo voltaic watts per buyer (W/C). This illustrates the general quantity of solar energy sourced to a utility or state relative to the variety of that particular utility’s retail clients. To make use of 2023 for instance, the Southeast regional common would equate to a mean photo voltaic ratio of 665 watts per buyer for the area’s 33 million clients served by electrical utilities. That measurement is for all the area, and each utility inside the area in flip has its personal metric that could be greater or decrease than the regional quantity.

The most recent figures present photo voltaic progress regardless of some unrealized potential

Total, the Southeast is projected to almost double the quantity of photo voltaic to nearly 44 GW over the following 4 years, rising to 1,350 watts per buyer in 2027. Basically, utilities throughout the Southeast have made bigger capability deployments in shorter time frames than ever. For instance, Florida Energy & Gentle deployed roughly a gigawatt of photo voltaic capability in 2023. This can be a pattern that may solely proceed to enhance with stronger planning processes for utility sources and transmission.

But, there may be nonetheless some unrealized potential in latest utility useful resource plans and regulatory approvals. For instance, Georgia Energy ranks above the regional common in watts per buyer (W/C) at 1,168 W/C in 2023 regardless of its newest useful resource plan, and never due to it. Georgia Energy unexpectedly filed an up to date IRP in 2023 outdoors the common schedule attributable to unanticipated load progress, however as a substitute of including any incremental photo voltaic within the near-term, it has as a substitute pushed for extra fossil gasoline. Likewise, despite the fact that Alabama Energy has obtained approval to construct 2,400 MW of further renewable vitality technology by 2029, a previous approval of 400 MW went largely unused for many of its timeframe earlier than being prolonged, which means Alabama Energy didn’t find yourself siting a lot of the photo voltaic that was authorised.

There are additionally some utilities which are presently present process useful resource planning course of, or anticipated to begin quickly: Duke’s utilities within the Carolinas filed an replace to their useful resource plan in January 2024 that sadly doesn’t permit new incremental photo voltaic earlier than 2028; and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) was set to launch its IRP in March, however that has now been delayed to the autumn of 2024. Nevertheless, each of those useful resource plans could be unlikely to be mirrored within the near-term forecast that’s the focus of this report.

This yr’s report displays a number of SunBlockers: utilities whose four-year forecast stays under final yr’s regional common. The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) sadly fell simply wanting the benchmark wanted to keep away from making the this yr. And regardless of a promising improve from new photo voltaic capability anticipated to offer energy to the grid, Alabama Energy has but to make it off the SunBlocker checklist. The North Carolina Electrical Cooperatives, Seminole Electrical, and PowerSouth are all on the backside of the checklist this yr.

Nevertheless, there may be hope for utilities which are on the SunBlocker checklist. Many provisions of the Inflation Discount Act (IRA) are geared toward offering certainty to builders and increasing financing choices for non-traditional utilities, resembling direct pay of the ITC (Funding Tax Credit score) and PTC (Manufacturing Tax Credit score) in addition to the New ERA (Empowering Rural America) funding. So utility useful resource plans and different photo voltaic professional,rams supplied by states or utilities nonetheless have unrealized potential they need to contemplate cashing in on.

In subsequent blogs we we’ll unpack the utility rankings and watts per buyer forecast for main utility methods additional. Moreover, we’ll discover the SunRisers from this yr’s report, the utilities exhibiting the best complete improve in W/C photo voltaic ratio between the baseline yr (2023) and the four-year forecast (2027). Keep tuned for extra!

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Courtesy of Heather Pohnan and Bryan Jacob, Southern Alliance for Clear Power