The BIMCO Container Delivery Market Overview & Outlook for March 2024 has been printed, and Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO’s Chief Delivery Analyst, highlights that ship provide is anticipated to develop on common 9.1% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.
Rerouting by way of Cape of Good Hope is assumed to affect the primary half of 2024. Ship demand will increase an estimated 9.5% in 2024 and falls 0.5% in 2025. The provision/demand stability is anticipated to tighten within the first half of 2024 however then weaken when ships can return to the Suez Canal routing.
In response to the IMF, the world financial system will develop barely sooner in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023 regardless that economies within the US, China, Japan and India will develop slower. Retail gross sales within the US and EU stay steady. US customers proceed to spend extra and save lower than earlier than the pandemic. That would finally change and harm retail gross sales, says Rasmussen.
Assaults on ships within the Pink Sea have pressured almost all container ships to sail across the Cape of Good Hope, including 10% to common crusing distances and ship demand. Ship deliveries will hit a brand new report excessive in 2024, beating the report set in 2023. The fleet is anticipated to develop 14.9% between finish 2023 and finish 2025.
Time constitution charges have elevated 41% since December 2023 and common fixture intervals have elevated by three months. The charges might keep excessive for some time as liner operators look to safe ample tonnage to take care of providers regardless of the longer crusing distances.
Thus far, second-hand costs have solely elevated marginally regardless of a rise in time constitution charges usually being mirrored in these costs. “We consider that this can proceed to be the case, as liner operators can stay up for important extra capability as soon as the disaster within the Pink Sea has been resolved. That’s as a result of they like to cowl elevated demand by taking up time constitution tonnage somewhat than shopping for second-hand tonnage.”
Recycling is anticipated to stay low in 2024 because the Pink Sea state of affairs will increase demand for ships however improve in 2025.
